丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 企业利润"开门红"在望 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 总的来看，年末外需走强带动下，工业企业利润增长动能不弱。2026 年 1 月，在春节错位下， 出口的量仍有望维持较好增长，领先出口数据的 Vizion 订舱量同比增速明显回升。外需承托下， 企业利润增长并无近忧，但 2 月出口面临高基数后，增长动能仍待察。内需方面，政策发力推 动投资止跌回稳的信号在逐步释放，在服务消费支持政策尚未有明确框架的前提下，增量政策 更多集中在企业投资领域，短期思路或优先推动投资止跌回稳。在内需和外需双重发力下，一 季度有望实现企业利润的"开门红"。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 企业利润"开门红 2] "在望 《眼前的税收，远方的通胀 • ——宏观周脉"博"系列 2》2026-01-18 ——12 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Sum ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strength in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.39% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - High-volatility sectors such as telecommunications, AI in the ChiNext, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while sectors like aquaculture, coal, and dividend stocks lagged behind [1] Investment Trends - Incremental capital is flowing into the market, with the CSI A500 ETF leading in turnover, totaling 45.291 billion yuan among the top five ETFs, and the overall A500 ETF turnover reaching 52.575 billion yuan, more than three times that of the CSI 300 ETF [1] - There is a noticeable increase in net subscriptions for several core broad-based products, indicating a concentrated allocation of funds towards core A-share assets after a market correction [1] Economic Outlook - The current market sentiment is moderately positive, with a marginal recovery in risk appetite [1] - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Makoto Nakada, warned against premature interest rate hikes, advocating for fiscal and growth policies to elevate neutral interest rates, which is interpreted as a constraint on the pace of central bank rate hikes and positively impacts market sentiment [1] Sector Analysis - The prevailing market themes include technology (AI industry chain), anti-involution, and external demand-driven manufacturing recovery [2] - The uncertainty surrounding AI commercialization, as evidenced by Oracle's revenue and cloud business falling short of expectations, contributes to market volatility [2] - Despite the promising trends in AI, concerns about stock price divergence from fundamentals exist, suggesting a focus on tangible asset expansion opportunities, particularly in the power-related non-ferrous sector [2] Real Estate and Inflation - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with housing prices declining [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive for two consecutive months, influenced by gold prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] Debt Market - The bond market saw a slight rebound, although the weak performance in the fourth quarter was more pronounced than expected [2] - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, are approaching post-tax mortgage rates, indicating a gradual recovery in their investment value [2] - The 10-year government bond remains a stabilizing force in the bond market during this adjustment phase, highlighting its robust characteristics [2]