天风证券认为，消费板块估值层面步入相对低位，可弱化对相对底部恶化的担心、对高基数的担心等因 素，内需新消费需加大重视。 12月12日，港股开盘，恒生指数涨0.9%，恒生科技指数涨1.02%。 相关ETF方面，港股消费ETF（159735）开盘走强，截至发稿涨1.25%。成交额超1900万元，暂居同标 的第一。溢折率0.02%，盘初频现溢价交易。成分股中，名创优品、申洲国际、老铺黄金、同程旅行、 百胜中国等股涨超2%。 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，该指数选取港股通范围内流动性较好、市值较 大的50只消费主题相关股票组成指数样本，采用自由流通市值加权，以反映港股通内消费类股票的整体 表现。 消息面上，据经济参考报，近日从国家信息中心大数据发展部获得的多项高频数据显示，11月，我国消 费、投资、外贸等多项指标延续向好趋势。其中，消费活力持续释放，线下消费热度指数同比增长 12.0%；基建项目稳步推进，全国项目中标金额、工程机械开工率实现环比双增；日均国际货运航班数 量较10月提高6.2个百分点，一定程度反映以消费电子为代表的高价值产品外贸较为活跃。入冬以来， 多地聚焦汽车、百货、餐饮、 ...

Economic Overview - The global economy is facing multiple pressures including high inflation, debt risks, and supply chain restructuring, with the IMF downgrading global growth expectations [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with significant events such as the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, leading to increased protectionism and non-traditional competitive measures [1] Investment Opportunities - **New Consumption Driven by Domestic Demand**: The shift from investment and export-driven growth to domestic consumption is emphasized, with new consumption focusing on emotional and experiential value rather than just material needs [2] - **Technological Innovation and Self-Reliance**: Investment opportunities in sectors like semiconductors and AI are highlighted, driven by external technology restrictions and the need for domestic manufacturing upgrades [3] - **Gold as a Hedge Against Uncertainty**: The demand for gold is expected to rise due to the weakening of the dollar's credit system, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and the anticipated decline in real interest rates as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [4] - **Industrialization of Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot industry is poised for significant growth, with production expected to ramp up significantly by 2025, driven by advancements in AI and the need for labor replacement due to aging populations [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current focus is on the new consumption and AI application sectors, particularly in the context of the recent market pullback influenced by geopolitical factors and the unlocking of new consumption stocks [1][3] - The summer film season and the collectible toy market show potential for growth despite recent market challenges [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments - The short drama market is entering a refined management phase due to regulatory policies from the National Radio and Television Administration, which is expected to enhance content quality [1][4][7] - Companies like Wanda Film, Shanghai Film, and Hengdian Film are actively expanding into the pan-entertainment market through IP operations and offline experiences, with projections indicating that the pan-entertainment market in China will exceed 300 billion RMB by 2029 [1][6] - The AI application sector has cooled down after an initial surge but is witnessing new developments, such as the IPOs of over 20 AI companies in Hong Kong and the launch of the ARCS sci-fi short drama [1][9] Notable Companies and Their Strategies - Wanda Film's "1+2+5" strategy focuses on creating a super space and expanding into domestic and international markets, while also diversifying into films, strategic investments, and collectible toys [6] - Shanghai Film Group is revamping classic IPs and plans to release an animated film in 2025, while Hengdian Film City is transitioning to a global short drama production center [6] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The short drama industry is shifting from a traffic-driven model to a focus on high-quality content, with potential for integration with gaming and offline exhibitions [7] - The publishing and gaming sectors within the media industry are expected to show stable performance, with companies like Southern Media and Central South Media being highlighted for their resilience [8] AI Application Market Potential - The AI-generated content market is projected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions, with specific opportunities in education (Tianzhou Culture, Rongxin Culture), companionship (Aofei Entertainment), and beauty (Meitu) [2][13] - The potential for AI-generated content in the film and animation sectors is significant, with new production models emerging that could transform traditional filmmaking processes [10][11] Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the context of new consumption and AI applications include Wanda Film, Tianzhou Culture, Aofei Entertainment, and Bilibili, particularly as they engage in offline experiential economies and social interactions during the summer season [14][15]