Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [6] Core Views - The mechanical equipment industry is experiencing a cyclical rebound with growth in engineering machinery, export chains, and shipbuilding performance [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, the mechanical equipment sector achieved revenue of 1,010.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a net profit of 76.3 billion yuan, up 22% year-on-year [1] - The engineering machinery sector continues to grow, with revenue of 334.3 billion yuan, a 5% increase, and net profit of 27.4 billion yuan, a 14% increase [1] - The export chain's performance is also strong, with revenue of 522.6 billion yuan, a 9% increase, and net profit of 37.9 billion yuan, a 30% increase [1] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing sustained demand, with revenue of 119.2 billion yuan, a 20% increase, and net profit of 5.9 billion yuan, a 112% increase [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first half of 2025, the mechanical equipment industry saw significant growth across various sectors, with notable increases in revenue and net profit [1][11] - The engineering machinery sector's revenue and profit growth is attributed to both domestic and international market dynamics [1][5] - The shipbuilding sector is benefiting from a favorable cycle, with a strong order book and improved profitability [1][10] Market Trends - The mechanical equipment index rose by 37% as of September 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 21 percentage points [2] - Key sub-sectors such as lithium battery equipment and humanoid robots have shown remarkable growth, with increases of 142% and 66% respectively [2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a cyclical recovery in engineering machinery, industrial gases, and shipbuilding, driven by domestic demand and global market expansion [2][3] - The humanoid robot sector is expected to transition from formation to expansion, presenting significant investment opportunities [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry leaders such as Sany Heavy Industry and XCMG [7][12]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot market is on the brink of large-scale commercialization, driven by significant order growth and technological advancements [1][2][3] - Major companies in the humanoid robot sector are experiencing a surge in orders, particularly in applications such as tourism, retail, and logistics [2][3] - The industry is entering a critical phase characterized by "demonstration application-driven" and "technical breakthroughs" [1][3] Industry Trends - The demand for humanoid robots is increasing, with companies like Qingbao reporting a notable rise in orders, including a 7 million yuan contract in August [2] - The market is shifting from small-scale deliveries to a focus on mass production, with expectations of significant sales growth by 2025 [2][5] - The industry is seeing a trend towards customization, with clients requiring robots tailored for specific applications, such as heavy machinery inspection [3][5] Technological Developments - Key technological advancements are contributing to the maturation of the humanoid robot sector, with core component costs decreasing by an average of 15% annually [4] - The successful CR certification of data sets by companies like Zhiyuan Robotics indicates readiness for mass delivery [4] Market Outlook - The industry is optimistic about the commercialization prospects for 2026, with expectations of diverse domestic market demands and increasing international orders [5] - Predictions suggest that global humanoid robot sales could exceed 5 million units by 2035, with a market size surpassing 400 billion yuan [5] - Challenges remain in achieving large-scale production, particularly in reducing costs and enhancing reliability [6] Value Chain Dynamics - The humanoid robot value chain is characterized by uneven cost distribution, with over 70% of total costs attributed to upstream core components [6] - The industry is transitioning from experimental phases to industrialization, with a focus on overcoming cost and adaptability challenges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the rapid development and commercialization of humanoid robots in China, driven by policy support, technological advancements, and capital investment, with a strong expectation for mass production to begin in 2025 [2][8][30]. Policy Support - Central and local governments are actively promoting the humanoid robot industry through various policies, including the "three-step" strategy outlined by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aiming for significant technological breakthroughs and mass production by 2025 [9][15]. - Regions are developing differentiated strategies, with eastern areas focusing on high-end research and western regions emphasizing supply chain localization and cost control [19][22]. Technological Innovation - Significant advancements in core components and lightweight design have been achieved by domestic companies, while foreign competitors maintain a lead in hardware design and AI decision-making systems [2][4]. - Companies like Unitree Technology and the "Gongga No.1" have made notable progress in lightweight design and structural innovation, enhancing market competitiveness [9][10]. Commercialization Progress - A surge in startup companies in the humanoid robot sector is expected in 2024, with several firms already achieving large-scale deliveries and partnerships with well-known automotive and logistics companies [3][4]. - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for mass production, with companies like Unitree and Zhiyuan Robotics expected to sell over a thousand units [3][4]. Investment Landscape - The investment environment for humanoid robots is highly active, with significant funding directed towards early-stage projects, particularly in core technology development [24][29]. - Major tech companies and local governments are establishing funds to support the growth of the humanoid robot industry, with investments ranging from 2 billion to 100 billion yuan [25][29]. Competitive Landscape - The humanoid robot market features three main types of players: automotive companies, startups, and tech giants, each with unique advantages and challenges [32][34]. - Automotive companies leverage their manufacturing experience and supply chain capabilities to reduce costs and enhance application scenarios, while startups focus on rapid product iteration and technological specialization [34][35].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 09 月 18 日 [Table_Title] 人形机器人转债大盘点 [Table_Title2] 2025 转债行业梳理之二 [Table_Summary] ► 政策与产业双轮驱动，人形机器人进入产业化前夜 2025 年以来，人形机器人产业进入政策与应用场景双重驱动 阶段。顶层政策将具身智能与智能机器人纳入战略重点，地 方政府亦密集出台专项行动方案。与此同时，海外特斯拉加 速量产布局，国内厂商融资扩张并逐步实现技术突破，板块 由概念驱动迈向产业化落地，具备长期关注价值。映射到转 债市场，相关标的主要集中于轻量化、丝杠、减速器、传感 器等核心零部件与材料环节，本体及软件相关标的仍较为稀 缺。 ►本体：探索进行时，关注银轮转债、道通转债 人形机器人核心价值量高度集中在零部件环节，执行器、灵 巧手与传感器是最关键赛道，其他零部件亦不可或缺。 执行器板块，丝杠（艾迪转债、锋工转债、光力转债、金钟 转债）、电机（精达转债、恒帅转债、英搏转债）和减速器 （科利转债、崧盛转债、锋工转债）价值占比较高，其中科 利转债关注度相对较高。灵巧手壁垒高、标的稀缺， ...

Market News - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.27%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Nasdaq down 0.07% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla up over 2% and Oracle up over 1%, while Microsoft and Nvidia fell over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.76%, reaching a new high since February 2022 [1] - International oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil up 1.97% and Brent crude oil up 1.59%, closing at $68.51 per barrel [1] - European stock indices closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.77%, France's CAC40 down 1%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.88% [1] Industry Insights - Figure, a leading humanoid robot company, announced it will release three major announcements over the next three days, with a recent C-round funding raising over $1 billion, valuing the company at $39 billion [2] - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see significant growth, with 2025 being a key year for development, driven by advancements in component performance and cost reduction [3] - SK On announced the completion of a pilot plant for solid-state batteries in South Korea, aiming for commercialization by 2029, one year ahead of the original target [2] - The solid-state battery industry is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 78% from 2025 to 2030, and a market size exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2030 [4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce released policies to expand service consumption, including measures to enhance tourism and optimize the consumption environment [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the mechanical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, driven by significant projects such as the construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to generate substantial new demand for engineering machinery [14][15] - The humanoid robot sector is poised for a breakthrough in 2025, with mass production expected to drive down costs and enhance data collection capabilities, thus promoting wider adoption [6] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming increasingly important due to the rising power consumption of chips, with a projected increase in the adoption of liquid cooling systems in data centers [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - Significant investments in humanoid robotics have been made, including a nearly 1 billion yuan A+ round financing for a startup focused on embodied intelligence [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for humanoid robot mass production, with expectations of overcoming data scarcity issues [6] Liquid Cooling - Innovations in liquid cooling technology are being driven by the need for efficient thermal management in high-performance chips, with a notable shift towards liquid cooling systems in new data centers [7][8] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is benefiting from the commencement of major infrastructure projects, with domestic sales of excavators showing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% in August 2025 [15] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the engineering machinery sector due to policy support and the ongoing internationalization and electrification trends [15] Robotics and Automation - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of various types of forklifts, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4% in July 2025, indicating a robust market for automated solutions [16] - The penetration rate of unmanned forklifts is expected to rise significantly, with a projected 39.3% increase in sales in 2025 [16] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the acceleration of domestic substitution for semiconductor equipment due to geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions, emphasizing the importance of local manufacturers [18][19] New Energy Equipment - The report highlights advancements in battery technology, including the introduction of solid-state batteries, which are expected to revolutionize the energy storage market [21][22]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games showcased the capabilities of humanoid robots, with 280 teams from 16 countries participating in various competitions, raising questions about the timeline for their industrial application [1] - The industrialization of humanoid robots hinges on three key factors: technological breakthroughs, cost reduction, and the establishment of application scenarios [1][2] - Predictions indicate that some niche scenarios may see humanoid robots deployed by the end of this year or early next year, but large-scale industrialization faces significant hurdles [1][3] Group 1: Technological Reliability - Humanoid robots are transitioning from basic movements to complex tasks, but core technologies like motion control remain underdeveloped, hindering industrialization [2] - The industry is primarily at L1-L2 stages of intelligence, with only a few leading companies exploring L2 to L3 advancements [2][3] - Achieving a high success rate in industrial applications requires extensive data training, with estimates suggesting a need for millions of data points [3] Group 2: Cost of Hardware and Computing Power - The humanoid robot industry has seen significant growth, with over 160 companies developing platforms and financing exceeding 24 billion yuan by July 2025 [4][5] - Companies are actively working to reduce hardware costs, with some components seeing price reductions of up to 50% compared to last year [5][6] - The industry is focusing on modular designs and data generation to lower training costs and improve efficiency [6] Group 3: Application Scenarios - There is a growing demand for humanoid robots in high-risk industrial scenarios, with predictions of significant advancements in their operational success rates within the next year [7][8] - The service sector is expected to see a transformation with humanoid robots, particularly in commercial and household applications, where there is a higher tolerance for errors [9] - Long-term competition in the humanoid robot ecosystem will be crucial, with various companies opening up their technologies to foster collaboration and innovation [9][10]

Group 1 - Elon Musk is working on the final design of the Optimus robot, focusing on hand flexibility, which is considered a major engineering challenge [1] - The third version of Optimus is expected to solve issues related to hand flexibility, possess an AI brain, and achieve mass production, which Musk claims is unmatched by competitors [1] - The development of the dexterous hand is a core focus for Tesla, with tactile sensors being a key component for optimization [1] Group 2 - Guohai Securities predicts that the humanoid robot industry will accelerate globally, driven by Tesla's Optimus, with the dexterous hand market expected to reach 900 million yuan in 2025 and 37.6 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 110% over five years [2] - Zhaowei Electromechanical has released dexterous hands DM17 and LM06, with DM17 featuring a fully direct drive solution and 17 active degrees of freedom [3] - Longsheng Technology's dexterous hand is equipped with a compact and lightweight visual-tactile resistive multi-modal electronic skin [4]

Market Overview - On September 8, the robotics sector saw a collective surge, with companies like Ningbo Dongli, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Taihe Intelligent, and Mingzhi Electric hitting the daily limit up, while others like China Electric Research, Green Harmonics, and Top Group also experienced significant gains [1] Events - On September 7, Tesla launched an official Weibo account named "TeslaAI" to introduce its AI products, including humanoid robots and autonomous driving technologies [2] - Tesla's recent proposal for a new compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk, potentially valued at around $1 trillion, includes performance targets related to humanoid robots, aiming for cumulative deliveries of 1 million units [3] - Shenzhen Youbixun Technology announced a 250 million yuan order for humanoid robots, indicating that its WalkerS series is now operational in various factories for tasks like material handling [3] - Several companies, including Mech-Mind Robotics and Beijing Xingdong Era Technology, have recently completed significant financing rounds, contributing to a total financing amount in the robotics sector that has already surpassed last year's total by 1.8 times [3] Institutional Insights - According to Dongfang Securities, if humanoid robot sales reach 30-50 million units, it could significantly aid Tesla in achieving its profitability goals, with a notable increase in resource allocation towards robotics [4] - Tianfeng Securities notes that the concentration of humanoid robot orders indicates rising market acceptance and suggests that the industry may be entering a critical phase of commercialization [4] - Guohai Securities highlights that the emergence and iteration of humanoid robot products could open up broader market opportunities beyond the automotive sector, marking a significant investment opportunity in the robotics industry [4]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical phase of industrial application, with products already being utilized in various factories for tasks such as material delivery and assembly handling, indicating a shift from demonstration to practical use [1] - The demand for humanoid robots is rapidly increasing, as evidenced by multiple companies announcing significant orders, suggesting a growing market acceptance and recognition [1][2] - Technological advancements, cost reductions, and supportive policies are accelerating the move towards large-scale commercialization of humanoid robots [2] Group 1: Industry Developments - Shenzhen Youbixun Technology Co., Ltd. announced a humanoid robot order worth 250 million yuan, marking a significant milestone in the industry [1] - Companies like Stardust Intelligence, Zhiyuan Innovation, and Yushu Technology have also reported humanoid robot orders, reflecting a surge in market demand [1] - The application of humanoid robots is expanding into complex production environments, such as automotive manufacturing, indicating a transition from "observational" to "practical" applications [1] Group 2: Technological and Economic Factors - Key hardware components like harmonic reducers and high-power motors are becoming smaller and more precise, enhancing the flexibility and operational capabilities of humanoid robots [2] - The price of humanoid robots has significantly decreased from over one million yuan to tens of thousands or even thousands of yuan due to localized production of core components [2] - Policies and capital investments are increasingly supporting the humanoid robot sector, with various regions prioritizing humanoid robots in their development strategies [2] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has outlined a framework for the innovation and development of humanoid robots, emphasizing breakthroughs in key technologies and ensuring the safety and effectiveness of core components [3] - The International Federation of Robotics has recognized the strategic importance of humanoid robots in China, reinforcing the notion that the industry is moving towards large-scale application [3] Group 4: Company Recommendations - Attention is drawn to Orbbec, a leader in 3D visual perception technology, which has a significant market share in domestic service robot visual sensors [4] - Koli Sensor, a leading company in strain sensors, has developed a series of products for humanoid robots, showcasing advanced technology in force/torque sensors [4]