Group 1: Oilseed Market Trends - The main contracts for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil saw significant price increases, with rapeseed meal rising over 5% and rapeseed oil exceeding 6%, reaching a high of 10,333 yuan/ton, the highest since January 2023 [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported rapeseed from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8% starting August 14 [1][3] - The decision is expected to have a profound impact on the domestic oilseed market, as over 90% of China's rapeseed and 75% of rapeseed meal are imported from Canada [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - Despite the anti-dumping measures, Canada remains a major supplier, with imports from September 2024 to June 2025 projected at 4.7093 million tons, accounting for 96.72% of total imports [3] - The forecasted import volumes for July and August are significantly lower than the previous year, with July estimated at 130,000 tons and August at 195,000 tons, a 50% decrease year-on-year [3] - Analysts suggest that the current import costs may not cover the processing margins, leading to a potential supply gap in the market [3][4] Group 3: Broader Agricultural Market Context - The international relations and supply dynamics make it challenging to short-sell oilseeds, with a preference for buying on dips [4] - The price of Malaysian palm oil has also increased, with offshore prices reaching $1,087.5, reflecting a broader trend in oilseed pricing [4] - The U.S. has expressed a desire for China to triple its soybean purchases, which could significantly impact trade balances, although China's reliance on U.S. soybeans has decreased over the years [6][7] Group 4: Soybean Import Statistics - In 2022, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. and 74.65 million tons from Brazil, with 2023's first half showing a total import of 49.37 million tons, a slight increase from the previous year [7] - The market share of U.S. soybeans in China has dropped from 40% to 18% over the past eight years, while Brazil's share has risen from 35% to over 65% [6][7] - The domestic soybean self-sufficiency rate has increased to 18%, indicating a diversification in agricultural supply chains [7]

菜系品种在集体上涨。 8月12日夜盘，菜粕主力合约开盘后一度涨超5%，创下4月份以来新高；菜籽油主力合约一度涨超6%，最高飙 升至10333元/吨，创下2023年1月以来最高点。 中国商务部当日发布公告，决定 自 8月14日 起 对原产于加拿大的进口油菜籽实施临时反倾销措施，要求进口 商按75.8%的保证金比率向海关缴纳保证金。 菜系品种集体上涨 建信期货分析师余兰兰认为，按照75.8%的保证金比率，当前进口加拿大油菜籽盘面榨利难以覆盖，会出现供 应缺口。船期统计数据显示，7月到港量预估13万吨，8月到港量预估19.50万吨，较去年同期减幅50%。由于 未来油菜籽买船大幅减少，菜油延续低位做多逻辑，直至供应短缺格局出现明显修复。 中信建投期货研究发展部研究员石丽红表示，在当前的国际关系形势及供应格局下，三油两粕均较难沽空，回 调做多为主。不过，因菜油进口来源广泛，且俄罗斯菜籽产量及菜油出口在中国旺盛需求下连年增长，国内菜 油需求又受到玉米油等小油种的挤占，供需缺口有但并没有大到难以调和的程度，不过这也需要菜油维持相较 其他替代品的溢价。 8月12日，马来西亚棕榈油离岸价为1087.5美元，较上日涨42.5美元 ...