| | | を业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年1月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 王涛辉 | | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8460 | 8410 | | 20 | 0.59% | | | 期价 | Y2605 | 7912 | 7856 | | રેણ | 0.71% | | | 基差 | Y2605 | 548 | 554 | | -6 | -1.08% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 05+530 | 05+520 | | 10 | । | | | 仓单 | | 28264 | 28264 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8570 | 8490 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | 从业资格证号： F03095512 投资咨询证号： Z0020712 联系方式： 18001936153 作者： 辛旋 从业资格证号： F3064981 投资咨询证号： Z0016876 联系方式： -- 作者： 汤冰华 从业资格证号： F3038544 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月29日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 元/吨。广西南宁白糖5340元/吨，报价小幅走弱。巴西进入停榨季 限制原糖的下跌，而印度及泰国糖丰产概率较大，整体来看全球糖 依旧处于供过于求的格局。国内市场来看，目前广西、云南、广东 等地蔗糖厂开榨提升，季节性供应压力增加，糖价整体预计易跌难 涨。节奏上来看，进口糖近期缩量，国内外糖步入消费旺季，阶段 性支撑糖价小幅反弹，整 ...

| 『业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | --- | | 十海辉 Z0019938 2025年12月26日 | | 田温 | | 12月25日 12月24日 涨跌 张跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8350 8350 0 0.00% | | Y2605 8044 7992 52 0.65% 期价 | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+520 05+500 20 : | | 28264 28264 仓单 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月24日 孫跌 涨跌幅 | | 广东24度 8490 8470 20 0.24% 现价 | | 期价 P2605 8514 8486 28 0.33% | | 墓差 P2605 -24 -16 -8 -50.00% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 +650 05 + 120 530 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 8975.7 8944.3 31.4 0.35% | | -0.74% | | 0.00% | | 采村溫 | | 12月25日 12月24日 旅跌 旅跌幅 | | 23.64% | | - | | 价差 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Trump's blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers may increase palm oil's attractiveness as a biofuel raw material. However, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in the first half of December, and BMD palm oil is likely to fluctuate. In China, palm oil lacks price - advantage in winter, and its basis has limited fluctuation space [1] - Soybean oil: US soybean exports to China are slower than expected, and South American soybeans may have a good harvest. CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate slightly. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, but the inventory may decrease due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, and the decline of the spot basis is limited [1] - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed prices are stable, but inventory in some areas is limited. The futures price has limited room for further decline, and the spot price and basis fluctuate slightly [1] 2. Apples - The current inventory depletion is slow, and the overall sales are weaker than last year. The price of farmers' apples is under pressure. The short - term market will trade the game between the "real shortage of high - quality delivery products" and the "overall inventory pressure" [6] 3. Red Dates - The support from spot sales and cost is weak. The futures price is weak, and the basis is strengthening. The overall market supply is relatively loose, and the 01 contract's entry into the delivery month has released some pressure. The future trend depends on market consumption [7] 4. Corn and Corn Starch - In the northeast, the bullish sentiment is shaken, and traders sell at high prices. In North China, the sales volume fluctuates with price. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises' inventory is increasing, while feed enterprises are mainly on the sidelines. The corn market is likely to be weak in the short term, but the decline space is limited [8] 5. Pigs - The spot price is stable, and the demand for curing meat around the Winter Solstice is increasing. The slaughter cycle of farmers is longer this year due to the late Spring Festival, and the market is slightly stronger. The 03 contract has limited upside but is supported at around 11,000 [12] 6. Meal Products - The price of US soybeans is weak. Brazilian soybeans will be listed soon, posing a competitive threat. The domestic soybean meal market is loose, and the 1 - 5 spread is difficult to rise further. The soybean meal price has limited downside but lacks upward momentum [16] 7. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production is in the late stage, which may support prices. Indian sugar production is abundant, restricting the rebound of raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18] 8. Cotton - Internationally, US cotton sales are weak in late November. The weather in the main producing areas is dry, and the quality index is rising. Domestically, the supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from spinning enterprises is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly but has limited upward momentum [19] 9. Eggs - The number of old hens and newly - laid hens is decreasing, but the supply of small - sized eggs is tight, and large - sized eggs are sufficient. The demand from food processing and catering industries is weak. The market is in a "supply - strong - demand - weak" pattern and is expected to be weak and volatile [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On December 19, compared with December 18, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets all decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Inventory and Basis**: Palm oil inventory decreased last weekend and was lower than the five - year average. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all changed to some extent [1] 2. Apples - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the apple 2605 contract increased, and the basis decreased. The arrival volume in some fruit markets decreased, and the national cold - storage inventory also decreased slightly [3] - **Regional Inventory**: The cold - storage inventory in six major apple - producing areas is provided, with Shandong having the largest inventory. The current inventory depletion is slow [6] 3. Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of red date futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis of some grades changed. The inventory in Cangzhou showed different changes in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7] 4. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2603 contract increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The import profit increased, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract decreased slightly, and the basis increased slightly. The spread between starch and corn decreased [8] 5. Pigs - **Futures Data**: The price of the pig 2605 contract increased, and the basis decreased. The spread between the 3 - 5 contracts decreased [12] - **Spot Data**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, the daily slaughter volume increased, and the breeding profit increased [12] 6. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased slightly. The basis increased, and the Brazilian import crushing profit increased [16] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot and futures prices of rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis decreased. The Canadian import crushing profit decreased [16] - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans changed slightly, and the basis and warehouse receipts also changed [16] 7. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of domestic sugar futures contracts decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price increased. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis changed [18] - **Industry Data**: The production and sales of sugar in China and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, and the import volume increased [18] 8. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of cotton futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The ICE US cotton price increased slightly [19] - **Industry Data**: The inventory in Xinjiang and the import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products increased [19] 9. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the egg 01 contract increased, and the 02 contract decreased. The spot price of eggs increased slightly, and the basis increased [21] - **Related Indexes**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the breeding profit decreased [21]

Core Insights - The recent Winter Trade Fair in Hainan showcased the strong demand for tropical agricultural products, with many exhibits sold out before the event concluded, highlighting the appeal of China's agricultural exports supported by the Hainan Free Trade Port policy [1] - In the first ten months of this year, China's agricultural exports reached nearly 600 billion yuan, covering 838 product categories and reaching 223 countries and regions, indicating a robust growth in export scale, product diversity, and market coverage [1][2] Group 1 - The Winter Trade Fair featured Thailand and Pakistan as guest countries, attracting participation from 16 countries and over 100 international trade enterprises [1] - Agricultural products from China, such as coffee from Yunnan and fresh corn from Jilin, are becoming popular overseas, demonstrating their adaptability to different regional tastes and high international market standards [1] - The export of agricultural products is a significant contributor to stabilizing foreign trade and benefiting people's livelihoods in China [1] Group 2 - China's agricultural export surge is supported by its diverse natural resources, with unique products from various regions forming a competitive edge [2] - The modernization of agricultural production, including advanced breeding and processing technologies, has improved product quality, exemplified by the high sugar-acid ratio of Fujian honey pomelo entering the high-end international market [2] - The growth of cross-border e-commerce has created new channels for agricultural exports, allowing young farmers to sell products like lychee directly to overseas markets [2] - The agricultural export performance reflects China's efforts to stabilize its foreign trade and expand its market reach, with the Yellow River basin contributing 178.1 billion yuan in agricultural exports in the first ten months of this year [2]

【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势 से र 日期：2025-12-12 ZHESHANG FUTURE 【粕类周报20251212】USDA报告指引性有限，粕类近远月走势分化 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | 核心观点 2025-12-12 | | --- | --- | | * 合约: m2605 ♥ 观点： 豆粕 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 | * 合约: RM605 ® 观点： 菜籽粕 震荡下行阶段 后期价格中枢有望下降 | | 》 逻辑： 国外方面，美豆新年度基本面偏紧对CBOT大豆价格重心支撑仍在。但南美新作丰产预期持续，压 | 业 逻辑: 国外方面,2025/26年度全球荣籽供需格局竞松,压制荣籽价格重心,关注后续国际贸易政策变动 | | 制CBOT大豆价格走势。短期预计CBOT大豆偏弱震荡。关注后续南美天气变化指引。 | 指引。国内方面，加荣籽反顺捐初裁使其进口面临较高保证金要求，叠加加菜粕关税限制，菜粕后续供应预期 | | 国内方面，年底前大豆及豆粉供需仍相对充足，一季度供应缺口在前期阿根廷大豆采购及后续中美采购预期下 | 持续收紧。但下游水产养 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月25日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 臣湘 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11月24日 | | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | 张庆幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8490 | | 8470 | 20 | 0.24% | | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8168 | | 8190 | -22 | -0.27% | | | 墓差 | Y2601 | 322 | | 280 | 42 | 15.00% | | | | | 01+270 | | 01+270 | 0 | | | | 现货基差报价 | 江苏阴 | | | | | 오프 | | | 仓单 | | 24625 | | 24625 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | | 11月24日 | | 11月21日 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported third quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.86 compared to $1.56 in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant decline [10] - Adjusted EPS was $2.27 in the third quarter versus $2.29 in the prior year, indicating a slight decrease [10] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $924 million in the quarter compared to $559 million last year, showing strong operational performance [10][11] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 2.2 times at the end of the third quarter, reflecting the impact of acquisition debt from Viterra [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Soybean processing and refining results improved across all regions due to higher margins and the addition of Viterra's South American assets [10][11] - Softseed processing and refining results were driven by higher average margins and the addition of Viterra's softseed capabilities [11] - Grain merchandising and milling saw higher results in wheat milling and ocean freight, partially offset by lower results in global wheat and corn merchandising [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In North America, higher processing results were offset by lower results in refining, while in South America, results were higher in processing and refining [10][11] - European processing results improved, particularly in biodiesel, while refining results were slightly down [11] - The global supply and demand environment has become less volatile, contributing to improved performance [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating Viterra and leveraging the combined platform to enhance operational efficiency and capture synergies [4][6] - The strategic alignment along the end-to-end value chain operating model aims to improve agility, transparency, and collaboration [4][6] - The company anticipates capturing significant synergies from the Viterra integration, with expectations for a meaningful impact in 2026 [39][41] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a high degree of complexity in the marketplace, with farmers and end consumers remaining largely spot [21] - The company expects full year 2025 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.30-$7.60, reflecting ongoing macro trade and biofuel policy uncertainty [7][20] - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt to shifting trade flows and maintain operational efficiency [21][22] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $1.2 billion of adjusted funds from operations year-to-date, with $900 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [15] - The company repurchased 6.7 million shares for $545 million, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [16][70] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarity on biofuel policy and soybean oil margins - Management expects clarity on the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) by year-end or early next year, with improvements in soybean oil margins anticipated by early 2026 [25][27] Question: Stability of earnings in the new combined grain business - The combined grain business offers more stability in earnings due to enhanced storage capabilities and origination strengths from Viterra [28][30] Question: Impact of Viterra on EPS and EBIT - Viterra's integration is expected to be mildly dilutive to EPS for the year, but early indications show strong contributions from both legacy Bunge and Viterra operations [33][36] Question: Timing of synergy capture from Viterra - Significant synergy capture is expected in 2026, with some benefits anticipated in Q4 2025 [39][40] Question: Opportunities and risks in Argentina post-Viterra - The company is now more balanced globally, allowing it to mitigate risks associated with Argentina's volatility while capitalizing on its origination and processing capabilities [79] Question: Supply and demand dynamics in Australia - A large crop is expected in Australia, with opportunities for increased exports and competitive positioning in global markets [86][88] Question: Future capital projects and investment opportunities - The company does not foresee large capital projects from Viterra but will continue to evaluate opportunities for growth and consolidation in the industry [95][96]

Business Performance and Strategy - Viterra的整合进展顺利[10] - 公司调整了业务分部，以更好地反映其运营方式，并提高主要业务驱动因素的透明度[10, 14] - 团队在第三季度表现良好[10] - 行业趋势发展良好，但当前形势继续受到宏观、贸易和生物燃料政策不确定性的影响[10] Segment Reporting Changes - 从2025年第三季度开始，分部结构进行了调整，以符合端到端价值链方法，并提高商品类型的透明度[13, 14] - 新的分部结构包括：大豆加工和精炼、软籽加工和精炼、其他油籽加工和精炼、谷物贸易和制粉[14, 15, 16, 17] - 体积重塑与新的分部报告结构以及主要的收入生成活动相一致[19] - 新的报告结构提高了油籽加工、精炼和商品交易量的可见性[19] Financial Outlook - 公司调整了2025财年的展望，以反映与Viterra的合并，包括作为交易一部分发行的股票，减去第三季度回购的股票[22] - 预计2025年全年调整后每股收益将在730美元至760美元之间[21, 22] - 预计2025年下半年调整后每股收益将在400美元至425美元之间[21, 22] - 预计加权平均股数约为1.66亿股，下半年约为1.97亿股[21]

Group 1: Oilseed Market Trends - The main contracts for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil saw significant price increases, with rapeseed meal rising over 5% and rapeseed oil exceeding 6%, reaching a high of 10,333 yuan/ton, the highest since January 2023 [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a temporary anti-dumping measure on imported rapeseed from Canada, requiring importers to pay a deposit of 75.8% starting August 14 [1][3] - The decision is expected to have a profound impact on the domestic oilseed market, as over 90% of China's rapeseed and 75% of rapeseed meal are imported from Canada [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - Despite the anti-dumping measures, Canada remains a major supplier, with imports from September 2024 to June 2025 projected at 4.7093 million tons, accounting for 96.72% of total imports [3] - The forecasted import volumes for July and August are significantly lower than the previous year, with July estimated at 130,000 tons and August at 195,000 tons, a 50% decrease year-on-year [3] - Analysts suggest that the current import costs may not cover the processing margins, leading to a potential supply gap in the market [3][4] Group 3: Broader Agricultural Market Context - The international relations and supply dynamics make it challenging to short-sell oilseeds, with a preference for buying on dips [4] - The price of Malaysian palm oil has also increased, with offshore prices reaching $1,087.5, reflecting a broader trend in oilseed pricing [4] - The U.S. has expressed a desire for China to triple its soybean purchases, which could significantly impact trade balances, although China's reliance on U.S. soybeans has decreased over the years [6][7] Group 4: Soybean Import Statistics - In 2022, China imported 22.13 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. and 74.65 million tons from Brazil, with 2023's first half showing a total import of 49.37 million tons, a slight increase from the previous year [7] - The market share of U.S. soybeans in China has dropped from 40% to 18% over the past eight years, while Brazil's share has risen from 35% to over 65% [6][7] - The domestic soybean self-sufficiency rate has increased to 18%, indicating a diversification in agricultural supply chains [7]