1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The peanut spot price is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term, with the supply of peanut kernels still low and downstream demand still weak. The peanut oil spot price is stable, and the peanut meal price has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is relatively good. The peanut futures are oscillating at a low level, and the 05 contract is oscillating at a high level [3][4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Data - **Futures盘面**: PK604 closed at 8080, down 28 or -0.35%, with a trading volume of 2,395 (an increase of 86.09%) and an open interest of 9,177 (a decrease of 4.26%); PK610 closed at 8360, up 16 or 0.19%, with a trading volume of 3,137 (an increase of 14.99%) and an open interest of 15,536 (an increase of 4.51%); PK601 closed at 8344, up 18 or 0.22%, with a trading volume of 21 (a decrease of 76.40%) and an open interest of 469 (an increase of 1.30%) [1] - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 7600, 8000, and 8000 respectively, with no change. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3350, and the price of Rizhao soybean meal was 3310 (up 20). The price of peanut oil was 14300 (up 50), and the price of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8740 (up 40). The basis of PK604 in Henan Nanyang was -480, and in Shandong Jining and Linyi was -80. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was -7, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5560. The import price of Sudanese peanuts was 8600, and that of Senegalese peanuts was stable [1] - **Spreads**: The spread of PK01 - PK04 was 264 (up 46), the spread of PK04 - PK10 was -280 (down 44), and the spread of PK10 - PK01 was 16 (down 2) [1] 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis - The peanut price in Henan is stable, while that in Northeast China is weak. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin, and Changtu, Liaoning decreased by 0.05 yuan/jin to 4.55 yuan/jin, and the price of Huayu 23 in Xingcheng remained stable at 4.35 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan is 3.5 - 3.95 yuan/jin, and that in Junan, Shandong is 3.4 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. The import price of Senegalese peanut kernels is stable, with the price of oil - use peanuts at 7200 yuan/ton and that of commodity peanuts at 7700 yuan/ton. The purchase price of some peanut oil mills is stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 7200 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7850 yuan/ton. The price of soybean oil rose, while the price of peanut oil remained stable. The domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was quoted at 16500 yuan/ton. The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal rose by 10 yuan/ton to 3320 yuan/ton. The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and peanut meal is strong in the short term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [3][4] 3.3 Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract with a light position on dips [7] - **Month Spread**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to sell the put option pk605 - P - 7700 on dips [9] 3.4 Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contracts, the spread between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the spread between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [11][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending March 12, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 35 - 90 million tons, with 35 - 80 million tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year and 0 - 10 million tons in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 35 million tons, with 15 - 30 million tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year and 0 - 5 million tons in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year. US soybean oil export sales are expected to decrease by 2 million tons to an increase of 2.2 million tons, with a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1.2 million tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year and a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1 million tons in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year [1] - A private exporter reported the sale of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2026/2027 market year [1] - According to customs data released on March 18, China's edible oil imports in February were 860,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.7%; edible vegetable oil imports from January to February were 1.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. China's soybean oil imports in February were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. China's palm oil imports in February were 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 168.9%, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 142.4%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in February were 200,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 450,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% [1] Summary by Directory Overnight Market Information - US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 35 - 90 million tons, with 35 - 80 million tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year and 0 - 10 million tons in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year. US soybean meal export sales are expected to increase by 15 - 35 million tons, with 15 - 30 million tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year and 0 - 5 million tons in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year. US soybean oil export sales are expected to decrease by 2 million tons to an increase of 2.2 million tons, with a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1.2 million tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year and a decrease of 1 million tons to an increase of 1 million tons in the 2026 - 27 fiscal year [1] - A private exporter reported the sale of 120,000 tons of soybean cake and soybean meal to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2026/2027 market year [1] - China's edible oil imports in February were 860,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.7%; edible vegetable oil imports from January to February were 1.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. China's soybean oil imports in February were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.5%, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. China's palm oil imports in February were 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 168.9%, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 142.4%. China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports in February were 200,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.8%, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 450,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% [1] Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from March 12 to March 18, 2026 [2] Protein Meal Basis - No relevant information provided Fat Basis - No relevant information provided Fat and Oil Futures Spread - No relevant information provided

Core Viewpoint - Bunge has released its financial guidance for 2026, projecting adjusted earnings per share in the range of $7.5 to $8.0, while raising its synergy target to $190 million, with $70 million achieved in 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company emphasizes the acceleration of integration following the acquisition of Viterra, aiming to achieve approximately $190 million in synergies by 2026, focusing on cost optimization and global operational efficiency [1] - Future observations will be necessary to assess whether the actual data from relevant business segments, such as softseed processing and grain trading, supports this synergy target [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the export value of Shangluo's specialty agricultural products is expected to reach 176 million yuan, driven by the growth of walnut, mushroom, dried fruit, traditional Chinese medicine, and strawberry exports to over 20 countries and regions, becoming a "new engine" for foreign trade growth in Shangluo [1] Group 1: Export Growth - The export value of Shangluo walnuts is projected to be 106.59 million yuan in 2025, representing a 226% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The export value of agricultural and sideline products is expected to exceed 100 million yuan for single items [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - Shangluo has seven walnut trading companies that are leveraging the information resources of the Luonan Walnut Trading Center to deepen their presence in Central Asia and actively expand into European and Southeast Asian markets [1] - Trade partners have expanded from Central Asian countries to over ten countries, including the Netherlands and Germany [1] Group 3: Support Initiatives - The Shangluo Municipal Bureau of Commerce is implementing multiple measures to expand agricultural product exports, including organizing participation in domestic and international exhibitions such as the China International Import Expo and the Canton Fair [1] - The bureau is also holding forums to address challenges faced by foreign trade enterprises, financing matchmaking meetings, and conducting training sessions for foreign trade business in the southern Shaanxi region to create a favorable development environment for enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - Company reported strong Q4 2025 results with revenue of $23.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75.5%, and adjusted EPS of $1.99, exceeding market expectations. The company also provided guidance for 2026, projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $7.5–8.0 and raised synergy targets [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past week, the company's stock exhibited significant volatility, with a cumulative increase of 4.09% and a price fluctuation of 7.98%. Following the earnings report, the stock rose by 1.69% on the announcement day, further increasing to 3.09%, closing at $122.03. Year-to-date, the stock has risen by 36.99% [2]. Operational Performance - The better-than-expected performance was primarily driven by accelerated integration of Viterra. For the full year 2025, the company achieved synergies of approximately $70 million, raising the 2026 target to $190 million. By business segment, the oilseed processing and refining division showed remarkable performance, with Q4 processing volume up 44.4% and revenue growth of 151.4%. The grain and milling business also saw a substantial increase in trade processing volume, up 213.9% year-on-year [3]. Financial Activity - In the past week, the trading volume was approximately $995 million, indicating active turnover. On February 11, the volume ratio was 0.71, suggesting that the trading volume was relatively lower compared to the average of the previous five days, although the stock price remained at a high point within the range [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.49, a significant decrease from $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024, impacted by unfavorable mark-to-market timing differences and notable items related to pension plan settlements and integration costs [10][11] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.99, down from $2.13 in the prior year, while adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rose to $756 million from $546 million year-over-year [11][14] - Net interest expense increased to $176 million compared to the previous year, reflecting the addition of Viterra [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the soybean processing and refining segment, results improved due to higher processing and refining outcomes in Argentina and Brazil, despite lower results in North America [11] - The soft seed processing and refining segment saw higher results driven by better average processing margins and the addition of Viterra's assets [12] - Grain merchandising and milling segment results improved due to global wheat and barley performance, although lower results were noted in global corn and ocean freight [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment remains complex with geopolitical tensions and trade flow uncertainties affecting farmer and consumer behavior [9] - The company expects full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8, reflecting limited forward visibility particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy [9][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating Viterra to enhance operational efficiency and connectivity across its global platform, aiming to unlock synergies in origination, merchandising, processing, and distribution [5][6] - The strategic investment in large greenfield projects continues, navigating trade flows and geopolitical volatility while connecting farmers to market demand [8][20] - The company emphasizes continuous improvement and resilience, positioning itself to deliver value in various market environments [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the complexity of the current environment, with limited visibility on future conditions, particularly regarding biofuel policy [9][18] - The company remains optimistic about its capabilities to adapt and succeed, leveraging the integration of Viterra to enhance its market position [20][21] Other Important Information - The company generated over $1.7 billion in adjusted funds from operations, with approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [14][15] - The adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was reported at 8.1%, with an adjusted leverage ratio of 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of RVO on margins and guidance - Management indicated that current guidance does not factor in potential changes from the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), but improvements in U.S. curves suggest a positive outlook [24][25] Question: Earnings cadence for the year - The company anticipates a first half to second half earnings split of approximately 30/70, with a lighter first half compared to historical trends [27][28] Question: Clarification on guidance methodology - Management confirmed that the same approach to guidance based on forward curves was used, with adjustments for market conditions expected once the RVO is finalized [34][35] Question: Potential for crush margins to replicate past performance - Management acknowledged the potential for improved margins due to increased capacity and favorable biofuel policies, but refrained from making specific predictions [39][40] Question: Synergies from Viterra integration - The company expects to realize approximately $190 million in synergies in 2026, ahead of schedule, with a run rate of around $220 million by year-end [51][52] Question: EPS guidance and segment performance - Management provided a breakdown of expected EBIT contributions by segment, with soy processing and refining expected to account for about 50% of total EBIT [87][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.49, a significant decrease from $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024, impacted by unfavorable mark-to-market timing differences and notable items related to pension plan settlements and integration costs [8][9] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.99, down from $2.13 in the prior year, while adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rose to $756 million from $546 million year-over-year [9][12] - Net interest expense increased to $176 million compared to the previous year, reflecting the addition of Viterra [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the soybean processing and refining segment, results improved due to higher processing and refining outcomes in Argentina and Brazil, despite lower results in North America [9][10] - The soft seed processing and refining segment saw higher results driven by better processing margins and the addition of Viterra's assets [10] - Grain merchandising and milling segment results improved due to global wheat and barley performance, offset by lower results in corn and ocean freight [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment remains complex with geopolitical tensions and trade flow uncertainties affecting farmer and consumer behavior [7] - The company expects full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8, reflecting limited forward visibility particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy [7][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the Viterra combination is seen as a major milestone, enhancing connectivity and information flow across the organization, which is expected to unlock durable synergies over time [4][5] - The company is focused on navigating trade flows and geopolitical volatility while connecting farmers to end market demand across food, feed, and fuel [6] - Continuous improvement and portfolio optimization are emphasized as part of the company's transformation journey [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the complex operating environment with limited visibility, particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy, but expresses confidence in the company's ability to deliver value [7][19] - The company is optimistic about the capabilities built through the Viterra integration, which is expected to enhance customer service and risk management [18][19] Other Important Information - The company generated over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations, with approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [12][13] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter, reflecting the impact of acquisition debt from Viterra [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of RVO on margins and guidance - Management indicated that the outlook does not assume any changes from the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) but noted improvements in U.S. curves driven by RVO expectations [21][23] Question: Earnings cadence for the year - The company expects a first half to second half earnings split of approximately 30/70, with a lighter first half compared to typical seasonality [26][27] Question: Guidance methodology - The company confirmed that it uses the same approach for guidance based on forward curves and market conditions, without making speculative adjustments [33][34] Question: Synergies from Viterra integration - Management expects to realize about $190 million in synergies in 2026, ahead of schedule, with a run rate of approximately $220 million by year-end [50][51] Question: Biofuel policy and market opportunities - Management expressed optimism about the potential for biofuel policy to drive demand, although no significant contributions are included in the current forecast [94][96]

Core Insights - The core insight of the article is that Malaysia's palm oil export volume for January 1-31 is projected to be 944,885 tons, representing a decrease of 5.58% compared to the 1,000,703 tons exported during the same period last month [1] Group 1 - The expected palm oil export volume for Malaysia in January is 944,885 tons [1] - This figure indicates a month-over-month decrease of 5.58% from the previous month's export volume of 1,000,703 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a balanced view on its investment prospects [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell, influenced by the rebound of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a short - term oscillation due to the potential cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports by China. In the short term, the market is weakly oscillating due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, but in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand expectation is good [8] - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - After the impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the digestion of overall negative factors, rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillating pattern. Future trends depend on the development of China - Canada trade relations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is in the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply [10] - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival is expected to be good, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [11] - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations means that China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11] - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Sheets**: Detailed supply - demand balance sheets for domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, and consumption [16][18] - **Import and Production**: There were no arrivals of imported rapeseed in January, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills were at low levels [19][21][23] - **Aquaculture**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Data on China's aquatic product, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crab production, as well as OECD's estimates of China's fish production and imports, are provided [25][27][31] - **Price**: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot price at a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounded to a high level [33][38] 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [8] 6. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - **Futures**: In the short term, it will return to range - bound trading. The RM2605 contract will oscillate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Traders can either trade short - term or wait and see [13] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is weakly oscillating due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The KDJ indicator has rebounded from the low - level oscillation, and the MACD is undergoing technical adjustment with the green energy narrowing. In the short term, it is weakly oscillating, and in the medium term, it is oscillating strongly. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal trends [43] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most Important**: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - **Second - most Important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45] - **Third - most Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]

Group 1 - The soft commodity sector, including grains, livestock, and dairy products, is gaining momentum and attracting market attention, alongside the strong performance of hard commodities like gold and silver [1] - The VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO.US) offers diversified exposure across the agricultural value chain, including fertilizers, machinery, and food processing, rather than solely betting on spot prices [1] - Nutrien (NTR.US) has seen a nearly 20% increase over the past two weeks and is considered a strong stock in the agricultural sector [1] Group 2 - CF Industries Holdings (CF.US) has risen over 18% year-to-date and has recorded four consecutive weeks of gains, marking its longest winning streak since last year [2] - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.US) has increased approximately 17% this year, with a dividend yield close to 3%, and has recently broken through the key $65 resistance level [2] - Darling Ingredients (DAR.US) has seen a cumulative increase of about 23% over the past three months, with its stock price recently surpassing the critical $40 resistance level [2]