Core Viewpoint - Bunge has released its financial guidance for 2026, projecting adjusted earnings per share in the range of $7.5 to $8.0, while raising its synergy target to $190 million, with $70 million achieved in 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The company emphasizes the acceleration of integration following the acquisition of Viterra, aiming to achieve approximately $190 million in synergies by 2026, focusing on cost optimization and global operational efficiency [1] - Future observations will be necessary to assess whether the actual data from relevant business segments, such as softseed processing and grain trading, supports this synergy target [1]

2月6日，记者从商洛市商务局获悉：2025年，商洛市特色农产品对外贸易持续增长，全年出口额达 1.76亿元。商洛核桃、菌菇、干果、中药材、草莓等多个品类的优质农产品远销东南亚、中亚、欧美等 地的20多个国家和地区，成为商洛外贸增长的"新引擎"。 商洛市商务局相关负责人介绍，商洛市商务局多措并举扩大农产品出口，以全省"陕耀全球·百团千 企出海拓市场抓订单"活动为契机，组织企业参加进博会、广交会等国内外展会，召开全市外贸企业纾 难解困座谈会、融资对接洽谈会，举办陕南片区外贸业务培训班，深入企业协调解决困难问题，为企业 营造良好发展环境。（记者：王佳伟） 2025年，商洛核桃产品出口额10659万元，比上年增长226%，农副产品单品出口额突破1亿元。商 洛市共有核桃贸易企业7家，依托洛南核桃交易中心信息资源，持续深耕中亚市场，积极拓展欧美市场 和东南亚市场，贸易伙伴从中亚国家拓展到荷兰、德国等10余个国家。 ...

业绩超预期主要得益于对Viterra的整合提速。2025年全年实现协同效应约7000万美元，并将2026年目标 上调至1.9亿美元。分业务看，软籽加工与精炼部门表现突出，第四季度加工量同比增长44.4%，部门营 收增长151.4%；谷物及碾磨业务贸易加工量同比大幅增长213.9%。 资金面情况 近7天区间成交额约9.95亿美元，换手活跃。2月11日量比为0.71，显示当日成交相对前5日平均水平有所 收敛，但股价仍收于区间高点。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 股票近期走势 近7天，邦吉股价呈现显著波动。区间累计上涨4.09%，振幅达7.98%。其中，财报发布后当日上涨 1.69%，随后单日涨幅进一步扩大至3.09%，收盘报122.03美元。年初至今，该股累计上涨36.99%。 业绩经营情况 经济观察网邦吉披露2025年第四季度及全年业绩，第四季度收入为237.6亿美元，同比增长75.5%；调整 后每股收益为1.99美元，超出市场预期。公司同时发布了2026年业绩指引，预计调整后每股收益区间为 7.5–8.0美元，并上调了协同效应目标。这份超预期的财报是近期股价波动的重要催化因素。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.49, a significant decrease from $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024, impacted by unfavorable mark-to-market timing differences and notable items related to pension plan settlements and integration costs [10][11] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.99, down from $2.13 in the prior year, while adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rose to $756 million from $546 million year-over-year [11][14] - Net interest expense increased to $176 million compared to the previous year, reflecting the addition of Viterra [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the soybean processing and refining segment, results improved due to higher processing and refining outcomes in Argentina and Brazil, despite lower results in North America [11] - The soft seed processing and refining segment saw higher results driven by better average processing margins and the addition of Viterra's assets [12] - Grain merchandising and milling segment results improved due to global wheat and barley performance, although lower results were noted in global corn and ocean freight [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment remains complex with geopolitical tensions and trade flow uncertainties affecting farmer and consumer behavior [9] - The company expects full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8, reflecting limited forward visibility particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy [9][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating Viterra to enhance operational efficiency and connectivity across its global platform, aiming to unlock synergies in origination, merchandising, processing, and distribution [5][6] - The strategic investment in large greenfield projects continues, navigating trade flows and geopolitical volatility while connecting farmers to market demand [8][20] - The company emphasizes continuous improvement and resilience, positioning itself to deliver value in various market environments [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the complexity of the current environment, with limited visibility on future conditions, particularly regarding biofuel policy [9][18] - The company remains optimistic about its capabilities to adapt and succeed, leveraging the integration of Viterra to enhance its market position [20][21] Other Important Information - The company generated over $1.7 billion in adjusted funds from operations, with approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [14][15] - The adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was reported at 8.1%, with an adjusted leverage ratio of 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of RVO on margins and guidance - Management indicated that current guidance does not factor in potential changes from the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), but improvements in U.S. curves suggest a positive outlook [24][25] Question: Earnings cadence for the year - The company anticipates a first half to second half earnings split of approximately 30/70, with a lighter first half compared to historical trends [27][28] Question: Clarification on guidance methodology - Management confirmed that the same approach to guidance based on forward curves was used, with adjustments for market conditions expected once the RVO is finalized [34][35] Question: Potential for crush margins to replicate past performance - Management acknowledged the potential for improved margins due to increased capacity and favorable biofuel policies, but refrained from making specific predictions [39][40] Question: Synergies from Viterra integration - The company expects to realize approximately $190 million in synergies in 2026, ahead of schedule, with a run rate of around $220 million by year-end [51][52] Question: EPS guidance and segment performance - Management provided a breakdown of expected EBIT contributions by segment, with soy processing and refining expected to account for about 50% of total EBIT [87][88]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.49, a significant decrease from $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024, impacted by unfavorable mark-to-market timing differences and notable items related to pension plan settlements and integration costs [8][9] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.99, down from $2.13 in the prior year, while adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rose to $756 million from $546 million year-over-year [9][12] - Net interest expense increased to $176 million compared to the previous year, reflecting the addition of Viterra [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the soybean processing and refining segment, results improved due to higher processing and refining outcomes in Argentina and Brazil, despite lower results in North America [9][10] - The soft seed processing and refining segment saw higher results driven by better processing margins and the addition of Viterra's assets [10] - Grain merchandising and milling segment results improved due to global wheat and barley performance, offset by lower results in corn and ocean freight [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The environment remains complex with geopolitical tensions and trade flow uncertainties affecting farmer and consumer behavior [7] - The company expects full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8, reflecting limited forward visibility particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy [7][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the Viterra combination is seen as a major milestone, enhancing connectivity and information flow across the organization, which is expected to unlock durable synergies over time [4][5] - The company is focused on navigating trade flows and geopolitical volatility while connecting farmers to end market demand across food, feed, and fuel [6] - Continuous improvement and portfolio optimization are emphasized as part of the company's transformation journey [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the complex operating environment with limited visibility, particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy, but expresses confidence in the company's ability to deliver value [7][19] - The company is optimistic about the capabilities built through the Viterra integration, which is expected to enhance customer service and risk management [18][19] Other Important Information - The company generated over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations, with approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [12][13] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter, reflecting the impact of acquisition debt from Viterra [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of RVO on margins and guidance - Management indicated that the outlook does not assume any changes from the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) but noted improvements in U.S. curves driven by RVO expectations [21][23] Question: Earnings cadence for the year - The company expects a first half to second half earnings split of approximately 30/70, with a lighter first half compared to typical seasonality [26][27] Question: Guidance methodology - The company confirmed that it uses the same approach for guidance based on forward curves and market conditions, without making speculative adjustments [33][34] Question: Synergies from Viterra integration - Management expects to realize about $190 million in synergies in 2026, ahead of schedule, with a run rate of approximately $220 million by year-end [50][51] Question: Biofuel policy and market opportunities - Management expressed optimism about the potential for biofuel policy to drive demand, although no significant contributions are included in the current forecast [94][96]

（文章来源：新华财经） 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚1月1-31日棕榈油出口量为944885吨，较上月同期出 口的1000703吨减少5.58%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to rapeseed meal, indicating a balanced view on its investment prospects [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell, influenced by the rebound of soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a short - term oscillation due to the potential cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports by China. In the short term, the market is weakly oscillating due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, but in the medium term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market, and the post - Spring Festival demand expectation is good [8] - The market is currently focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] - After the impact of the improvement in China - Canada trade relations and the digestion of overall negative factors, rapeseed meal will maintain an oscillating pattern. Future trends depend on the development of China - Canada trade relations [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry is in the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Due to China - Canada trade issues, the short - term export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease, reducing domestic supply [10] - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short term. The mutual tariffs are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [10] - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The demand for rapeseed meal in China after the Spring Festival is expected to be good, and the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [11] - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and the improvement in China - Canada trade relations means that China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11] - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance Sheets**: Detailed supply - demand balance sheets for domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2016 - 2025 are provided, including data on harvest area, production, inventory, and consumption [16][18] - **Import and Production**: There were no arrivals of imported rapeseed in January, and the import cost was affected by tariff expectations. The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills were at low levels [19][21][23] - **Aquaculture**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. Data on China's aquatic product, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crab production, as well as OECD's estimates of China's fish production and imports, are provided [25][27][31] - **Price**: Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after reaching the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot price at a relatively high premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounded to a high level [33][38] 5. Position Data - The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish sentiment [8] 6. Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - **Futures**: In the short term, it will return to range - bound trading. The RM2605 contract will oscillate between 2200 and 2400 in the short term. Traders can either trade short - term or wait and see [13] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is weakly oscillating due to the improvement in China - Canada trade relations. The KDJ indicator has rebounded from the low - level oscillation, and the MACD is undergoing technical adjustment with the green energy narrowing. In the short term, it is weakly oscillating, and in the medium term, it is oscillating strongly. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal trends [43] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - **Most Important**: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - **Second - most Important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45] - **Third - most Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45]

Group 1 - The soft commodity sector, including grains, livestock, and dairy products, is gaining momentum and attracting market attention, alongside the strong performance of hard commodities like gold and silver [1] - The VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO.US) offers diversified exposure across the agricultural value chain, including fertilizers, machinery, and food processing, rather than solely betting on spot prices [1] - Nutrien (NTR.US) has seen a nearly 20% increase over the past two weeks and is considered a strong stock in the agricultural sector [1] Group 2 - CF Industries Holdings (CF.US) has risen over 18% year-to-date and has recorded four consecutive weeks of gains, marking its longest winning streak since last year [2] - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.US) has increased approximately 17% this year, with a dividend yield close to 3%, and has recently broken through the key $65 resistance level [2] - Darling Ingredients (DAR.US) has seen a cumulative increase of about 23% over the past three months, with its stock price recently surpassing the critical $40 resistance level [2]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 王法族 Z0019938 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 江苏均价 8550 50 0.58% | 8600 | | 期价 Y2605 8044 40 0.50% | 8084 | | 1.98% | | | 某差 Y2605 506 10 | 516 | | 现货基差报价 -20 - | | | 棕榈油 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 广东24度 8880 90 1.01% | 8970 | | 期价 P2605 8832 112 1.27% | 8944 | | 48 基差 P2605 -22 -45.83% | 26 | | 豆棕现货价差 现货 -330 -40 -12.12% | -370 | | 炼油厂豁免政策,市场对最终出台的法规持谨慎乐观态度,认为这些法规将对生物质 | | | 菜籽油 | | | 1月21日 狱跌 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 江苏三级 9906 60 0.61% 现价 | | | 期价 OIROS 8947 રેર 0. ...

Group 1: Overall Information - The reports cover multiple industries including oils and fats, cotton, sugar, jujube, apple, corn, pig, meal, and egg, providing daily updates on futures and spot market prices, as well as industry analysis and outlooks [1][2][3] Group 2: Oils and Fats Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures maintain a narrow - range oscillation. There are concerns about potential inventory increases. In China, Dalian palm oil futures also show a narrow - range fluctuation around 8,500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a narrow - range adjustment. Brazilian soybean harvest forecasts may drag down the market. In China, although the Spring Festival stocking may reduce factory inventories, the possibility of large - scale long - position operations by funds is low [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The continuous shutdown of COFCO's rapeseed production line limits the available supply, supporting the rapeseed oil futures market. The market is focused on whether it can break through the 9,200 - yuan resistance level [1]. Market Data Summary - **Soybean oil**: On January 6, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan (up 0.59% from the previous day), the futures price of Y2605 was 7,912 yuan (up 0.71%), and the basis of Y2605 was 548 yuan (down 1.08%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan (up 0.94%), the futures price of P2605 was 8,500 yuan (up 0.14%), and the basis of P2605 was 70 yuan (up 3400.00%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan (down 1.49%), the futures price of O1605 was 9,130 yuan (up 0.95%), and the basis of O1605 was 770 yuan (down 23.46%) [1]. Group 3: Cotton Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE cotton futures rose. The US cotton market is expected to be affected by planting area reduction, temperature rise, and precipitation decrease. In China, processing enterprises are holding prices, and the core drivers are the strong expectation of reduced planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking. However, due to the low cost of foreign cotton and weak demand, cotton prices are expected to maintain a slightly - strong oscillation in the short term [2]. Market Data Summary - **Futures market**: On January 6, the price of cotton 2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton (up 1.36%), and the price of cotton 2609 was 15,040 yuan/ton (up 1.31%) [2]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,487 yuan (up 0.29%), and the CC Index of 3128B was 15,711 yuan (up 0.61%) [2]. - **Industry situation**: The import volume increased by 33.3%, the inventory of the textile industry decreased by 500.0% year - on - year, and the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6% [2]. Group 4: Sugar Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly. The focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. In India, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season has increased by nearly 25% compared to the same period last year. In China, the spot market is dull, but the Spring Festival stocking demand and the positive atmosphere of bulk commodities support the price. However, due to the peak of the sugar - making season, the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Market Data Summary - **Futures market**: On January 6, the price of white sugar 2605 was 5,259 yuan/ton (up 0.04%), and the price of white sugar 2609 was 5,275 yuan/ton (up 0.11%) [3]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning was 5,340 yuan (up 0.19%), and the price in Kunming was 5,200 yuan (unchanged) [3]. - **Industry situation**: The national cumulative sugar production decreased by 23.24%, and the cumulative sugar sales decreased by 42.53% [3]. Group 5: Jujube Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The acquisition in Xinjiang's jujube - producing areas has ended. Downstream demand is based on needs, and the number of buyers has increased, but the transaction has not improved significantly. After the futures rebound, the generation of new - season warehouse receipts is gradually increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the futures price will oscillate and consolidate [6]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of jujube 2605 was 8,975 yuan/ton (up 0.22%), and the price of jujube 2607 was 9,045 yuan/ton (down 0.06%) [6]. Group 6: Apple Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, but the high price may suppress consumption. The inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. In the futures market, the short - term delivery logic dominates, the capital sentiment is strong, the futures price is stronger than the spot price, and the basis is weakening, while the delivery profit is gradually recovering [7]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of apple 2605 was 9,614 yuan/ton (up 0.70%), and the price of apple 2610 was 8,531 yuan/ton (up 0.96%) [7]. Group 7: Corn Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the corn market, there is still reluctance to sell in the Northeast and North China, and the price is relatively stable. Before the Spring Festival, there is a selling pressure expectation. On the demand side, the low inventory in the northern ports supports the price, but the acceptance of high - price corn by deep - processing and feed enterprises is limited. Policy - wise, the directional auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement the market supply. In the short term, the price will oscillate under the game of multiple factors [9]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of corn 2603 was 2,222 yuan/ton (down 0.09%), and the price of corn starch 2603 was 2,501 yuan/ton (down 0.32%) [9]. Group 8: Pig Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After New Year's Day, the market demand has declined. Although the northern supply has decreased, the southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing the price. In December, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens increased, but it is expected that these pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January. The overall supply in January is relatively loose. The futures market is affected by capital sentiment and is short - term bullish, but the upside is limited [12]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the main pig 2605 contract was 12,255 yuan/ton (up 1.20%), and the price of the pig 2603 contract was 11,810 yuan/ton (up 1.29%) [12]. Group 9: Meal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US soybeans rebounded technically, but the global supply - demand pattern and South American harvest expectations continue to suppress the market. The domestic spot market remains loose. The cost of the 05 contract is under pressure, but the downside of soybean meal is limited. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [15]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3,100 yuan (unchanged), the price of M2605 was 2,776 yuan (up 0.80%), and the basis of M2605 was 324 yuan (down 6.36%) [15]. Group 10: Egg Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Based on the previous chicken - chick sales volume, the number of laying hens in January is expected to decrease, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The market is shipping smoothly, and with the approaching of the peak season, the downstream is stocking slightly, and the market sentiment is bullish. However, considering the relatively loose supply, the main contract is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [18]. Market Data Summary - On January 6, the price of the egg 03 contract was 2,992 yuan/500KG (up 0.27%), and the price of the egg 04 contract was 3,250 yuan/500KG (down 0.03%) [18].