2025 年十一假期期货市场品种解读 2025 年 10 月 8 日 | | 研究员： | 赵丹琪（执业编号：F3039881 | 投资咨询资格编号：Z0014940） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 邮件：zhaodq1@cjfco.com.cn | 公司地址：http://www.cjfco.com.cn | 微信公众号：ChangjiangFutures | | | 板块 | 品种 | 9 月 30 日下午 3:00 价格 | 10 月 7 日下午 3:00 价格 | 涨跌幅 | | | 纳斯达克 | 22,660.01 | 22,941.67 | 1.24% | | | 标准普尔 | 6,688.46 | 6,740.28 | 0.77% | | 宏观 | 道琼斯工业 | 46,397.89 | 46,694.97 | 0.64% | | | 恒生指数 | 26,855.56 | 26957.77 | 0.38% | | | 美元指数 | 97.80 | 98.1175 | 0.33% | | 贵金属 | COMEX 白银 | 46.97 | 48.33 ...

CBOT大豆期货涨0.32%，报10.21美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货跌0.14%，豆油期货涨1.35%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周二（10月7日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数跌0.27%，报28.8115点，全天呈现出冲高 回落走势，北京时间21:47曾涨至29.0398点刷新日高。 CBOT玉米期货跌0.59%，CBOT小麦期货跌1.37%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（10月6日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数涨0.09%，报28.8894点。CBOT玉米期货 涨0.66%，CBOT小麦期货跌0.45%。CBOT大豆期货跌0.15%，报10.1750美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货跌 0.50%，豆油期货涨0.60%。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.77%, closing at 29.5688 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.58% [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.84% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.57%, settling at $10.44 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.28% [1] - Soy oil futures experienced a significant drop of 2.63% [1] - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 2.45% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased slightly by 0.06% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a notable decline of 7.56% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 0.26%, closing at $7352 per ton [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.74% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.77%, closing at 29.5688 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.58% [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.84% [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 0.57%, settling at $10.44 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.28% [1] - Soy oil futures experienced a significant drop of 2.63% [1] Group 2 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 2.45% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures decreased by 0.06% [1] - Coffee "C" futures saw a substantial decline of 7.56% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 0.26%, closing at $7352 per ton [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.74% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.24% to 29.7981 points, showing a consistent upward trend throughout the day [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.36%, reaching $4.29 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.62%, closing at $5.3350 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures saw a rise of 0.60%, priced at $10.49 per bushel [1] - Soybean meal futures gained 0.14% [1] - Soybean oil futures experienced a significant increase of 1.78% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.33%, reaching 28.8288 points, showing an upward trend throughout the day [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by 1.43%, priced at $4.07 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures increased by 1.70%, priced at $5.1825 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures gained 0.96%, priced at $9.9450 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 1.47% and soybean oil futures decreased by 0.29% [1]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the continuous prevention and resolution of risks in key areas, including resolving local government debt risks, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and promoting reforms [2]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium for non - Communist Party personages, stressing the need to adhere to the general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, boost consumption, and promote economic circulation [2]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao mentioned that under the guidance of the two heads of state, China and the US have formed relevant consensuses and frameworks in the economic and trade field, and the two teams held talks in Stockholm [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange imposed a 5 - day trading ban on a client for exceeding the daily trading limit in the container shipping index (European line) futures contract on July 30 [3]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with some members opposing and advocating for a rate cut, and Powell avoiding guidance on a September rate cut [3] 2. Sector Performance - **Key Focus**: Glass, coking coal, soda ash, PVC, and synthetic rubber [4] - **Night Session Performance**: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.58%, precious metals 27.23%, oilseeds 11.99%, non - ferrous metals 21.40%, soft commodities 2.68%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.03%, energy 3.39%, chemicals 11.71%, grains 1.11%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.87% [4] 3. Sector Position - The report shows the changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.17 | 4.97 | 7.88 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 3.96 | 5.01 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.02 | 5.47 | 5.50 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.65 | 6.75 | 10.29 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.12 | 2.55 | 8.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 1.36 | 4.59 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | 0.19 | 1.47 | 21.86 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.05 | 0.41 | 1.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.01 | 4.29 | 11.79 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Futures | 0.15 | - 0.55 | - 0.57 | | | 5 - year Treasury Futures | 0.08 | - 0.50 | - 0.85 | | | 2 - year Treasury Futures | 0.03 | - 0.16 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 2.92 | 3.11 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.57 | 8.15 | - 2.25 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.53 | - 0.82 | 24.80 | | | LME Copper | - 0.69 | - 1.50 | 10.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.56 | 2.17 | 16.29 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 1.06 | 3.30 | - 7.85 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 4.48 | - 7.90 | [6]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.89%, closing at 29.2156 points, with a daily low of 29.1174 points reached at 00:42 Beijing time before the decline narrowed [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.79%, settling at $4.1075 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 1.62%, closing at $5.2975 per bushel [2] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 0.32%, ending at $10.0825 per bushel, with a daily low of $10.0425 reached at 00:40 before briefly turning positive [2] - Soymeal futures declined by 1.07%, while soybean oil futures increased by 1.32%, experiencing a significant rally after 01:00 [2]