Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [4][6] - Thermal Coal: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias in the short - term, long - term supply is expected to be loose [7] Core Views - The steel market is characterized by accelerated inventory reduction and oscillating prices. The fundamentals of building materials have improved, while the contradiction in strip materials lies in high inventory and high production. Future price trends depend on winter storage games and raw material support [1]. - The iron ore market has a weakening demand expectation. With high supply, increasing inventory, and potential seasonal decline in molten iron, the price is likely to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to molten iron production and downstream inventory changes [2]. - The coking coal and coke market shows a wait - and - see sentiment with wide - range oscillations. Coking coal supply is tight in the short - term, and the fourth round of coke price increase has been fully implemented. Future trends depend on the recovery of coking coal supply and changes in molten iron production [4][5]. - The thermal coal market has increasing wait - and - see sentiment and stable prices. In the short - term, prices are oscillating with a slightly upward bias due to factors such as insufficient port inventory accumulation and strong non - power demand. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose [7]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures contracts oscillated slightly upward. Spot steel prices rose following the futures, with low - price speculation and futures - spot transactions being the main types, and rigid demand being relatively low. The national building materials trading volume was 13360 tons, and the inventory reduction rate increased [1]. - Supply and demand and logic: The production and sales of building materials decreased month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline. Supply was restricted by profits, and the fundamentals improved. The contradiction in strip materials lies in high inventory and high production, which requires production cuts to resolve. Short - term prices will oscillate, and future trends depend on winter storage games and raw material support [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: None [1] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated slightly upward. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuated slightly, and traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 75800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.76%. The global ore shipment volume increased significantly this period, while the arrival volume decreased [2]. - Supply and demand and logic: Currently, iron ore supply remains high, and inventory continues to increase. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, and the release of maintenance plans by northern steel mills, there is an expected seasonal decline in molten iron. However, due to the relatively limited arrival volume, the price correction space is insufficient, and it is likely to oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to molten iron production and downstream inventory changes [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: None [3] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a range - bound upward trend. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to recover, and the quotation was adjusted dynamically according to the futures. The overall trading volume was mediocre. The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, and coking profits were repaired [4]. - Supply and demand and logic: For coking coal, domestic production increased slightly month - on - month, but the recovery was less than expected. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, but imports decreased slightly this Friday due to a one - day closure of three major ports. The short - term supply and demand are still in a tight pattern. For coke, after the fourth round of price increase, the losses of coking enterprises have eased. Attention should be paid to the production recovery. Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills have no new production cut plans, so there is rigid demand support. The strong thermal coal price also supports the coking coal and coke prices. Future trends depend on the recovery of coking coal supply and changes in molten iron production [4][5]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation - Coke: Oscillation - Others: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, current coal prices in major production areas have stabilized, and speculative demand has subsided. Downstream enterprises mainly rely on long - term agreements for transportation, and some coal mines maintain a balance between production and sales. Some enterprises have low production due to inspections and have firm quotations. Future attention should be paid to production area prices and port inventory changes. In the short - term, miners remain optimistic. At ports, transactions are mainly based on long - term agreements. Downstream enterprises are highly resistant to high - priced coal, and market coal transactions are relatively cold. Affected by the weakening sentiment of upstream coal prices, downstream wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and there is short - term market pressure. However, the port inventory is still lower than last year, and the arrival of resources is limited, so some traders are still optimistic. In the import market, there is still a certain profit in imported coal, and the price of imported high - calorie coal is firm, so the imported coal market is still active [7]. - Supply and demand and logic: Although there are slight changes in production area prices, with the arrival of the winter heating season, the port inventory accumulation is less than expected, and non - power demand is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate slightly upward. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose. Future attention should be paid to peak - season consumption and inventory replenishment [7]. Strategy - Not mentioned in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, and the market focus will shift from the end - stage to winter storage. The cost side is affected by crude oil price changes, and the production and demand of asphalt are facing different situations in different links of the industrial chain, with a generally bearish outlook on prices [1][22] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Asphalt Industry Chain Overview - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From October 27 to November 23, the weekly total asphalt production decreased by 5.8% from 56.4 tons to 53.1 tons, and then increased. The total domestic asphalt production in November is expected to be 222.8 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year decrease. The total weekly import remained stable at 8 tons and then decreased to 7 tons. The total apparent demand decreased by 13.2% from 78 tons to 67 tons. The total inventory decreased by 4.2% from 198 tons to 189 tons [14] - **Valuation and Profit**: The cost of diluted asphalt with and without quota decreased. The profit of main refineries increased from - 80 to - 23, and the profit of some refineries decreased. The spread between residue oil and asphalt is expected to rise, and the import profit from Iran in East China remained stable. The basis is expected to maintain a positive basis [16] - **Market Outlook**: The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of the asphalt industry chain are all bearish on prices. The upstream cost is affected by crude oil, the mid - stream has intense brand competition and weak demand, and the downstream demand is shrinking and purchasing is cautious [22] 3.2 Asphalt Refinery Profits - The document provides multiple profit charts of refineries using different raw materials such as heavy diluted asphalt and heavy high - sulfur Middle Eastern oil, including comprehensive profits and itemized profits of asphalt, diesel, and gasoline [28][39] 3.3 Asphalt Supply - **Refinery Maintenance**: Multiple refineries have carried out or are planning maintenance, including Sinochem Quanzhou, PetroChina Qinhuangdao, etc., mainly for reasons such as production transfer and regular shutdown [50] - **Production Volume**: The daily asphalt production shows different trends in different years. The production of main refineries, Sinopec refineries, and refineries using different raw materials (diluted asphalt with or without quota) also has different changes in monthly and cumulative values [54][56][58] - **Import and Inventory**: The asphalt import volume and diluted asphalt import volume have their own trends, and the diluted asphalt port inventory also shows different changes in different regions [79][82][86] 3.4 Refinery Production Choices - **Profit and Price**: Comparing data from 2024 to 2025, the prices of Brent, WTI, Shandong diesel, etc. have changed, and the comprehensive profits of medium - quality refineries and Shandong local refineries have also changed accordingly [90] - **开工率**: The operating rates of main refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, and the national coking operating rate have different trends in different years [95][97] - **Production Volume of Related Products**: The production volumes of gasoline and diesel show different trends in monthly, cumulative, and weekly values [100][102]