黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-18 钢材去库加速，钢价震荡运行 钢材：钢材去库加速，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日钢材期货主力合约震荡偏强运行，现货方面，钢材现货成交表现尚可，价格跟随盘面上涨，低 价投机和期现成交为主，刚需偏少。昨日全国建材成交13.36万吨，钢银数据显示，钢材去库幅度环比增加。 供需与逻辑：建材产销环比回落，库存维持去化，供给受到利润压制，基本面有所缓解。板带材矛盾在于高库存 和高产量，仍然需通过减产来化解基本面矛盾。短期价格维持震荡运行，后续观察冬储博弈及原料支撑情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，铁矿高位震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏强运行，现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅波动，贸易商报盘积极 性一般，报价多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交75.8万吨，环比下跌25.76%。本期全球矿石发运总量大幅增长， 到港量有所下降。 供需与逻辑：目前铁矿石供给维持高位，库存持续增长，同时伴随着钢厂亏损减产，北方钢厂陆续公布检修计划， 铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt spot and futures prices have dropped significantly, and the market focus will shift from the end - stage to winter storage. The cost side is affected by crude oil price changes, and the production and demand of asphalt are facing different situations in different links of the industrial chain, with a generally bearish outlook on prices [1][22] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Asphalt Industry Chain Overview - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From October 27 to November 23, the weekly total asphalt production decreased by 5.8% from 56.4 tons to 53.1 tons, and then increased. The total domestic asphalt production in November is expected to be 222.8 tons, a 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year decrease. The total weekly import remained stable at 8 tons and then decreased to 7 tons. The total apparent demand decreased by 13.2% from 78 tons to 67 tons. The total inventory decreased by 4.2% from 198 tons to 189 tons [14] - **Valuation and Profit**: The cost of diluted asphalt with and without quota decreased. The profit of main refineries increased from - 80 to - 23, and the profit of some refineries decreased. The spread between residue oil and asphalt is expected to rise, and the import profit from Iran in East China remained stable. The basis is expected to maintain a positive basis [16] - **Market Outlook**: The upstream, mid - stream, and downstream of the asphalt industry chain are all bearish on prices. The upstream cost is affected by crude oil, the mid - stream has intense brand competition and weak demand, and the downstream demand is shrinking and purchasing is cautious [22] 3.2 Asphalt Refinery Profits - The document provides multiple profit charts of refineries using different raw materials such as heavy diluted asphalt and heavy high - sulfur Middle Eastern oil, including comprehensive profits and itemized profits of asphalt, diesel, and gasoline [28][39] 3.3 Asphalt Supply - **Refinery Maintenance**: Multiple refineries have carried out or are planning maintenance, including Sinochem Quanzhou, PetroChina Qinhuangdao, etc., mainly for reasons such as production transfer and regular shutdown [50] - **Production Volume**: The daily asphalt production shows different trends in different years. The production of main refineries, Sinopec refineries, and refineries using different raw materials (diluted asphalt with or without quota) also has different changes in monthly and cumulative values [54][56][58] - **Import and Inventory**: The asphalt import volume and diluted asphalt import volume have their own trends, and the diluted asphalt port inventory also shows different changes in different regions [79][82][86] 3.4 Refinery Production Choices - **Profit and Price**: Comparing data from 2024 to 2025, the prices of Brent, WTI, Shandong diesel, etc. have changed, and the comprehensive profits of medium - quality refineries and Shandong local refineries have also changed accordingly [90] - **开工率**: The operating rates of main refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, and the national coking operating rate have different trends in different years [95][97] - **Production Volume of Related Products**: The production volumes of gasoline and diesel show different trends in monthly, cumulative, and weekly values [100][102]