| 风险提示：下游应用突破不及预期，竞争加剧风险。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,656 | 1,476 | 1,589 | 2,085 | 2,790 | | (+/-)% | 2.3% | -10.9% | 7.7% | 31.2% | 33.8% | | 净利润(归母) | 38 | 91 | 112 | 171 | 252 | | (+/-)% | -74.8% | 138.0% | 23.7% | 52.3% | 47.4% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.25 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 156.20 | 65.63 | 53.06 | 34.85 | 23.64 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 version of the refrigerator national standard promotes the industry's transition towards high efficiency, large space, and smart technology [5] - The new national standard significantly raises energy consumption limits and efficiency levels for refrigerators, which will lead to a substantial increase in the demand for VIP boards [2][5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The new national standard for household refrigerators will be implemented on June 1, 2026, tightening the first-level energy efficiency threshold from a comprehensive energy efficiency index of ≤50% to ≤20% [1] - The introduction of a comprehensive energy consumption evaluation system and a volume utilization rate correction factor will enhance the effective volume of refrigerators [1] Market Potential - The current penetration rate of VIP boards in China's refrigerator market is only 3%, indicating significant room for growth [3] - Assuming a 50% penetration rate of VIP boards by 2028, the potential market for VIP boards in China could reach 14.753 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 19.42% from 2018 to 2028 [3] Key Companies - Saitex New Materials is identified as a leading company in the VIP board sector, holding over 30% market share in the domestic cold chain sales field [4] - Zaiseng Technology is one of the first companies to produce VIP board core materials, with a production capacity of 10,700 tons as of June 2022 [4]