| 风险提示：下游应用突破不及预期，竞争加剧风险。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,656 | 1,476 | 1,589 | 2,085 | 2,790 | | (+/-)% | 2.3% | -10.9% | 7.7% | 31.2% | 33.8% | | 净利润(归母) | 38 | 91 | 112 | 171 | 252 | | (+/-)% | -74.8% | 138.0% | 23.7% | 52.3% | 47.4% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.25 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 1.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% | | 市盈率(现价&最新股本摊薄) | 156.20 | 65.63 | 53.06 | 34.85 | 23.64 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of a 49% stake in Sichuan Maikelong is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the vacuum insulation panel (VIP) sector, creating a complete industrial chain from material production to market sales [1][3] - The new national standards for refrigerators are anticipated to significantly increase the demand for VIPs, with potential demand elasticity reaching up to 7,543 thousand square meters as penetration rates rise [2] - The acquisition is projected to optimize Maikelong's operational efficiency and expand its cost and scale advantages, contributing positively to the company's performance [2][3] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire 49% of Maikelong for 231 million RMB, with performance guarantees for the next three years, including revenue targets of 4.65 billion RMB, 5.6 billion RMB, and 6.48 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [1] - If Maikelong meets at least 90% of the cumulative revenue and net profit targets, it will not be liable for performance compensation [1] Market Potential - The new national standards for refrigerators are expected to drive rapid growth in the VIP market, with significant increases in demand as the penetration of new energy-efficient refrigerators rises [2] - Maikelong is currently the second-largest VIP manufacturer in China, with a market share of 15.5%, and is expected to benefit from the acquisition through enhanced management and resource allocation [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion RMB, 1.4 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 50, 35, and 29 [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.68 billion RMB in 2025 to 2.39 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4]