猪价二次探底 后续如何看待？ ———— 杨蕊霞 投资咨询号：Z0011333 国投期货研究院 2026-2-27 一、供应施压，春节后生猪现货价格二次探底 春节过后，生猪现货价格二次探底。截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，涌益数据显 示全国生猪出栏均价 10.77 元/公斤，跌破 2025 年国庆后猪价首次探底的低点， 彼时 10 月 13 日生猪出栏均价最低达到 10.84 元/公斤。2025 年 10 月至 2026 年 2 月期间，生猪现货价格最高反弹至 13.3 元/公斤。 春节后猪价的二次探底，从供需两方面来看，一方面春节后猪肉消费需求处 于季节性的淡季，屠宰量处于低位；另一方面，上轮生猪产能回升周期在 2025 年 7/8 月左右见顶，由于能繁母猪至生猪出栏大约需要 10 个月左右时间。因此， 预计在 2026 年 5/6 月份之前，生猪出栏量仍处于惯性环比增加过程中，出栏压 力仍然在延续。 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2025/10/1 2025/11/1 2025/12/1 2026/1/1 2026/2/1 生猪样本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic live pig market has shown signs of rebound in recent days, with prices stabilizing after a significant decline, although short to medium-term pressures remain evident due to oversupply [1][2][3] Price Trends - The live pig futures price fell over 12% in October, reaching a low of 11,120 yuan/ton, following a decline of 11.36% in September [1][2] - On October 15, the average pig price in Guangdong was reported at 4.98:1, entering a warning zone for excessive decline [2] - The national average pig price saw a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg on October 14 and further rose by 0.11 yuan/kg on October 15, surpassing 11 yuan/kg [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Increased supply from breeding farms and insufficient demand have led to a rapid decline in pig prices since September [2] - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with significant outflows from major breeding enterprises [5][7] Market Sentiment and Investment - Recent inflows into livestock breeding ETFs indicate market optimism regarding short-term price stabilization and long-term industry potential [5] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing policy measures aimed at controlling production capacity and reducing weights will support a long-term price increase [7][9] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a capacity reduction cycle, with potential price increases anticipated in the second half of next year [7][9] - Short-term price pressures are likely to persist due to high production levels and reduced consumer demand post-holidays [9][10]