"今年以来，生猪价格和猪肉价格震荡下跌，近期跌幅有所扩大。"中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所 研究员、农业农村部猪肉全产业链监测预警首席分析师朱增勇说。 今年年初，生猪价格呈震荡下跌趋势，年中猪价反弹后再次下跌，9月最后一周价格为13.27元/公斤， 同比下跌27.8%，较年初价格累计下跌19.9%。1月份至9月份，猪肉均价为25.97元/公斤，同比下跌 4.8%，跌幅小于生猪。 朱增勇表示，供强需弱是导致猪价近期持续走低的主要原因。从消费端来看，7月份、8月份猪肉消费处 于季节性淡季，家庭及餐饮需求均有所下降。从供给端来看，1月份至8月份规模以上生猪定点屠宰企业 屠宰量24870万头，同比增长17.4%。8月屠宰量依然明显高于上年同期。今年上半年新生仔猪数量稳步 增长，持续高于上年同期，生猪产能持续释放。以往年份同期生猪出栏会季节性小幅回落，但今年7月 份以来，大体重生猪集中出栏，叠加压栏惜售和二次育肥现象减少，生猪供应反而较充足，叠加9月份 部分养殖主体恐慌性出栏，导致"越跌越卖，越卖越跌"。 在北京新发地农产品批发市场，9月份，白条猪批发加权平均价是16.46元/公斤，比8月份16.87元/公斤 下降2 ...

Group 1: Swine Farming - The national average price of pork has dropped to 13.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.36 yuan/kg week-on-week, attributed to increased supply and weak demand [1] - Supply is expected to face pressure in September due to slow slaughter progress before mid-September and early slaughter after the National Day holiday, leading to overall price pressure [1] - The government will begin a frozen pork reserve of 15,000 tons on September 23, and the effectiveness of this reserve in stabilizing prices will depend on the volume and frequency of storage [1] Group 2: Agriculture and Seed Industry - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has released a new batch of genetically modified corn and soybean varieties, including 96 corn and 2 soybean varieties, with companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong receiving approvals [2] - Most new varieties exhibit pest resistance and herbicide tolerance, with some showing yield increases of over 9% in 2024 production trials, indicating accelerated innovation in China's seed industry [2] - The supportive policy for high-performing varieties is expected to enhance competition and innovation in the seed industry [2] Group 3: Pet Industry - On Douyin, brands like Myfoodie, Weishi, and Blue's ranked highest in daily sales, while Zhongchong's brands saw significant improvements in rankings [3] - The focus of pet brand innovation is shifting from merely pleasing pet owners to prioritizing pet health, with domestic brands showing stronger innovation capabilities [3]

Group 1 - Since July, pig prices have been declining, leading to weakened profitability in the breeding sector, prompting the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to initiate central frozen pork reserve collection [1][3] - The average pig-to-grain price ratio has fallen below 6:1, entering a warning zone, which has led to the decision for pork reserve collection to stabilize the market [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the reserve collection will boost market confidence and provide necessary buffer space for the pig market to gradually recover from the cyclical low [1][6] Group 2 - Major breeding companies have successfully reduced costs, with Muyuan Foods being the first to achieve a cost of 5 yuan per kilogram, while others like Wens Foodstuffs and Shennong Group are expected to join this cost club [1][10] - The overall profitability of the industry is nearing a critical point, with many companies operating at or near breakeven [5][11] - Companies with strong cost control capabilities are expected to maintain profitability even in a low-price environment, while those with costs above 14 yuan per kilogram may face significant losses [9][11] Group 3 - The NDRC's recent actions are part of a broader strategy to manage high production capacity and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in the pig industry [7][8] - The current market conditions indicate that while there is a strong supply, demand remains weak, leading to further price declines [3][6] - Long-term recovery in pig prices will depend on the reduction of breeding sows and the actual recovery of market demand, particularly during holiday seasons [6][7]

记者从国家发展改革委获悉，为促进生猪市场平稳运行，近期国家发展改革委将会同有关部门开展 中央冻猪肉储备收储。 据悉，近期，由于夏季天气炎热、消费季节性偏弱，加之前期二次育肥生猪出栏，猪肉市场供应有 所增加，生猪价格小幅回落。据国家发展改革委监测，近日全国平均猪粮比价跌至6∶1以下，按照《完 善政府猪肉储备调节机制 做好猪肉市场保供稳价工作预案》规定，进入三级预警区间。（记者魏玉 坤） 【纠错】 【责任编辑:邱丽芳】 ...

Group 1 - The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on a trade agreement framework [1] - The State Council has agreed in principle to the "Jiangsu Free Trade Zone Biomedical Industry Chain Open Innovation Development Plan" [1] - The country will soon initiate the central reserve collection of frozen pork [1] Group 2 - The National Hydrogen Energy Vehicle Industry Measurement and Testing Center has been approved for construction [1] - Bank of China has released the "Action Plan to Support the Development of the Artificial Intelligence Industry Chain in Guangxi," committing to provide 30 billion yuan in special comprehensive financial support over the next five years [1] - The Photovoltaic Industry Association plans to hold a conference to connect innovative achievements in photovoltaic energy storage [1] Group 3 - Henan Province aims for an average annual growth of over 11% in the added value of strategic emerging industries by 2027 [1] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, while most Chinese concept stocks saw increases [1]

机构指出，大盘整体继续处于震荡上行趋势当中。 | 名称 | 现价 | | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44785.50 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21100.31 c | | 标普500 | 6370.17 | 周四，美国股市主要指数延续跌势，标普500指数连续第五日下挫，投资者担忧美联储主席鲍威尔可能在杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上释放鹰派信号。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌152.81点，跌幅0.34%，收于44785.50点；标普500指数下跌25.61点，跌幅0.40%，至6370.17点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 72.54点，跌幅0.34%，报21100.31点。 科技股近期的调整势头仍在延续，大型科技股普遍走弱，特斯拉收跌 1.17%，Meta跌1.15%，亚马逊跌0.83%，苹果跌0.49%，英伟达跌0.24%，微软跌 0.13%，谷歌收涨0.22%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.35%。小鹏汽车飙升近12%，蔚来涨超9%，向上融科、名创优品涨逾6%，爱奇艺、小牛电动涨逾2%； 阿特斯太阳能则大跌逾18%，禾赛科技跌11%，哔哩哔哩跌超6%。 【财经日历】 ...

正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-23 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 政策引导下猪价偏强震荡 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重连续两周持续下降、标肥价差基本持平、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 据悉，在5月底相关部门召集头部猪企开会后，6月10日农业农村部也召开了生猪生产调度会，全国 | | | | 畜牧总站和各省农业厅参加。这次会议对各省提出了具体的生猪生产调控目标，主要政策包括：全 | | | 供应 | 国能繁母猪调减100万头至3950万头；优化生猪生产，加大弱仔淘汰力度，引导降低出栏体重，国储 | 偏多 | | | 收储体重要求降至115公斤；加强监测，地方也要将二育等情况纳入监测，每月向农业部上报各地能 | | | | 繁、存栏、均重、二育等情况。 | | | | 本次调控并不仅限于头部集团企业，而是面对整个生猪养殖行业的调控。目前头部企业已经做出表 | | | | 率，稳步降低能繁母猪存栏量，并明确了降重计划，未来2-3个月的时间里将均重将至120公斤。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅下降，屠宰利润小幅下降 ...

Group 1 - The A-share pig farming sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhenghong Technology hitting the daily limit and Shennong Group rising over 7% [1] - On June 9, the National Storage Network announced the first round of central reserve frozen pork storage for the year, with a quantity of 10,000 tons [1] - The average price of pigs in China has been declining, with a reported price of 14.78 yuan/kg in the first week of June, down 0.4% from the previous week, marking six consecutive weeks of decline [1][2] Group 2 - As of April, the number of breeding sows in China was 40.38 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, remaining above the normal target of 39 million [2] - The expected profit for pig farming has dropped significantly, with a current estimate of 80.1 yuan per head, down over 65% from the high of 229.99 yuan per head at the beginning of the year [2] - Cost control has become a critical focus for pig farming companies, with TianKang Biological reporting a breeding cost of 13 yuan/kg and a selling price of 14.32 yuan/kg, indicating a clear profit margin [2] Group 3 - The stock prices of pig farming companies have generally risen since the announcement of the frozen pork storage, with an average increase of 4.09% in June, outperforming the CSI 300 index by over 2 percentage points [3] - Some stocks in the pig farming sector remain undervalued, with an average price-to-book ratio of 2.66 times, while TianKang Biological and Dongrui shares have ratios below 1.5 times [3] - TianKang Biological is expanding its international business, having shipped 56 tons of high-quality feed products to Uzbekistan, marking its entry into the international market [3] Group 4 - Twelve stocks have received ratings from five or more institutions, with Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group leading in institutional coverage [4] - Predictions indicate that ten stocks are expected to see net profit growth by 2025, with Huazhong Holdings, New Wufeng, New Hope, and Dabeinong projected to have growth rates exceeding 100% [4]