猪价二次探底 后续如何看待？ ———— 杨蕊霞 投资咨询号：Z0011333 国投期货研究院 2026-2-27 一、供应施压，春节后生猪现货价格二次探底 春节过后，生猪现货价格二次探底。截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，涌益数据显 示全国生猪出栏均价 10.77 元/公斤，跌破 2025 年国庆后猪价首次探底的低点， 彼时 10 月 13 日生猪出栏均价最低达到 10.84 元/公斤。2025 年 10 月至 2026 年 2 月期间，生猪现货价格最高反弹至 13.3 元/公斤。 春节后猪价的二次探底，从供需两方面来看，一方面春节后猪肉消费需求处 于季节性的淡季，屠宰量处于低位；另一方面，上轮生猪产能回升周期在 2025 年 7/8 月左右见顶，由于能繁母猪至生猪出栏大约需要 10 个月左右时间。因此， 预计在 2026 年 5/6 月份之前，生猪出栏量仍处于惯性环比增加过程中，出栏压 力仍然在延续。 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2025/10/1 2025/11/1 2025/12/1 2026/1/1 2026/2/1 生猪样本 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co., Ltd. has won the bid for the frozen pork reserve project in Longyou County, with a contract amount of 158.34 million [1][2] - The project announcement was published by the Longyou County Economic and Information Technology Bureau on December 28, 2025 [2] - Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co., Ltd. has invested in 80 enterprises and participated in 119 bidding projects, indicating its active role in the industry [1] Group 2 - The company holds 52 trademark registrations, 15 patents, and 1 copyright, showcasing its intellectual property portfolio [1] - Additionally, Zhejiang Huatong has obtained 5,232 administrative licenses, reflecting its compliance and operational capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - China has initiated anti-dumping duties on imported pork and pork products from the European Union (EU) to protect its domestic industry against low-priced imports [2][12]. Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - Starting December 17, China will impose anti-dumping duties on pork and related products from the EU, as announced by the Ministry of Commerce [2][10]. - The decision follows a thorough investigation process initiated in June 2024, which included preliminary rulings, hearings, and on-site verifications [4][12]. - The measures target fresh pork, frozen pork, and pig offal, addressing the issue of "low-price dumping" that has negatively impacted domestic pig farmers and slaughterhouses [4][12]. Group 2: EU's Anti-Dumping Practices - The EU has been actively conducting anti-dumping investigations against Chinese products across various sectors, including metals, smart devices, and chemicals, reflecting a trend of increasing trade tensions [5][13]. - The EU's concerns stem from China's competitive edge in sectors like solar energy and photovoltaic products, where it has achieved global leadership, prompting the EU to seek trade barriers to protect its own industries [5][13]. - The EU's approach is influenced by external pressures, including the trade protectionism exhibited by the Trump administration, which has led to a more cautious stance towards China [5][13]. Group 3: Trade Dynamics Between China and the EU - The anti-dumping measures from both sides represent a "rules contest" in global trade, highlighting the contradictions in the EU's stance, which claims market distortion while relying heavily on the Chinese market [6][14]. - China’s anti-dumping actions are characterized as defensive, adhering to legal procedures and aiming to ensure fair trade rather than outright protectionism [8][16]. - The imposition of duties on EU pork is seen as a means to encourage the EU to reconsider its trade strategies, focusing on quality competition rather than price undercutting [8][16].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co., Ltd. has won the bid for the frozen pork reserve project in Longyou County, with a bid amount of 152,006.4 [1][2] - The project announcement was published by the Longyou County Economic and Information Technology Bureau on December 10, 2025 [2] - Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co., Ltd. has made investments in 79 companies and participated in 115 bidding projects [1] Group 2 - The company holds 52 trademark registrations, 15 patents, and 1 copyright [1] - Additionally, Zhejiang Huatong has obtained 5,232 administrative licenses [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets show a mixed performance. Stock markets in the US and Europe have different trends, with the US having a mixed close and Europe rising. Commodity markets also vary, including precious metals, energy, and base metals. In addition, the economic policies and data of different countries and regions have an impact on the market, such as China's economic policies and data, the US trade balance, and the EU's potential policy changes [5][9][34] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - US stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow up 1.34% at 48704.01, the S&P 500 up 0.21% at 6901, and the Nasdaq down 0.25% at 23593.86. VISA and Nike led the gains in the Dow. European stock markets rose across the board, with the German DAX up 0.68%, the French CAC40 up 0.79%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.49%. International precious metal futures generally rose, while oil futures fell. London base metals mostly rose [5] Important News Macroeconomic News - The World Bank raised its 2025 China economic growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points. China's exports are more diversified, and the government's policies support domestic consumption and investment. China's economic operation is stable and improving, and Shanghai Port's shipping and container throughput hit new highs. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed continued implementation of proactive fiscal policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market [9][10] Energy and Chemical Futures - In Malaysia, natural rubber production, exports, and imports increased in October, while consumption and inventory decreased, and the average price dropped slightly. Citi expects oil prices to fall further in the early 2026, with a neutral outlook. Domestic soda ash inventory decreased slightly, production increased, and paper pulp inventory continued to decline. Singapore's fuel oil and light distillate inventories rose, while medium distillate inventory fell. The IEA adjusted its 2026 oil demand and supply forecasts, and OPEC+ increased production slightly in November [12][13][14] Metal Futures - In November 2025, most of the lithium - battery industry chain showed growth, but some products declined. A large refinery in North China reduced production due to raw material shortages. US initial jobless claims increased significantly [17] Black - Series Futures - HeSteel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price decreased slightly in December, and the quantity increased. The output and apparent demand of rebar decreased, as did the factory and social inventories. A coal mine in Henan was ordered to suspend production for rectification. The heavy - pollution weather warning in Xingtai was lifted. Mongolia plans to increase coal exports in 2026 and 2027. The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 44 yuan/ton [19][20][21] Agricultural Product Futures - The central reserve of frozen pork will conduct a series of rotation out - and - in transactions. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar decreased. Malaysia's palm oil production increased in early December. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's soybean production and planting area are expected to increase in 2025/26 [23][25][26] Financial Market Finance - A - shares declined, while the North - bound 50 index rose. Hong Kong stocks opened high and closed low. ZTE's A - and H - shares tumbled. There are rumors about the removal of quantitative trading equipment, but no official notice. "Mingming很忙" is preparing for a Hong Kong IPO [28][30] Industry - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to promote the innovation and development of the retail industry. China's auto and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased in November. The real - estate market is expected to see more policies in 2026, with a narrowing decline in sales area. Liaoning plans to develop the ice - and - snow tourism industry. The "pre - pricing trading" of gold in Shenzhen continues. The storage - chip industry faces a supply - demand imbalance [31][32][33] Overseas - The US trade deficit narrowed significantly in September. US initial jobless claims surged, while continuing claims dropped. The US Treasury Secretary proposed a change in regulatory direction. Ukraine's president may support holding elections during the war. The EU may postpone the ban on fuel - powered cars. The Swiss central bank maintained interest rates and lowered inflation expectations [34][36][38] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow hitting a new high. European stocks rose, driven by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut. There are rumors that SpaceX may go public in 2026 [39][40] Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical factors. Oil prices fell due to supply - surplus expectations. London base metals mostly rose. The IEA adjusted its oil supply - surplus forecast, while OPEC expects a balanced market in 2026 [41][42] Bonds - China's bond market continued to perform well, with most interest - rate bond yields falling. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, and the money market was loose. The Japanese central bank has no intention to intervene in the bond - market for now. US bond yields showed different trends [43][45] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank emphasized maintaining RMB exchange - rate stability. The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [46] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include Japan's industrial output and inventory, Germany and other European countries' CPI, and the US oil - drilling count. Upcoming events include the expiration of China's central - bank reverse - repurchase, speeches by Fed officials, and index sample adjustments and new - stock subscriptions [48][50]

Group 1 - After the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the price of live pigs has accelerated its decline, with recent futures contracts falling below 12,000 yuan/ton. Despite multiple state interventions in frozen pork reserves, the market's recovery effect has been limited [1] - On October 10, the state stored 15,000 tons of frozen pork, marking the latest action in a series of state interventions. Even with five previous storage actions in August and September, and the traditional consumption peak during the holidays, pig prices have not improved, leading to further price drops post-holiday [1] - On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, the main futures contract for live pigs closed at 11,595 yuan/ton, with a single-day decline of 6.15%. On October 17, the contract price dropped to as low as 11,020 yuan/ton, although there was a slight rebound on October 20, remaining below 11,500 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - In the context of a "cold winter" for the domestic pig market, the "insurance + futures" project, driven by futures, insurance, and local governments, has played a crucial role in supporting small and medium-sized farmers. The "Luohe sample" is a benchmark project for the Dalian Commodity Exchange's "Farmer Income Protection Plan" [2] - Luohe, an important pig-producing city in Henan Province, has an annual output of over 3 million pigs, with the pig industry accounting for nearly 70% of the livestock industry's output value. The project was initiated in 2021, allowing farmers to manage price risks effectively [2] - The first domestic pig revenue index "insurance + futures" project was implemented in Luohe, with a payout of over 180,000 yuan, achieving a compensation rate of nearly 364%, which helped farmers mitigate losses from falling prices and stabilize operations [2] Group 3 - Facing continuous price declines, listed pig companies have shown increasing enthusiasm for engaging in commodity futures hedging. Since 2021, companies such as Haida Group, Tiankang Biological, and Muyuan Foods have announced their involvement in commodity futures hedging activities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic live pig market has shown signs of rebound in recent days, with prices stabilizing after a significant decline, although short to medium-term pressures remain evident due to oversupply [1][2][3] Price Trends - The live pig futures price fell over 12% in October, reaching a low of 11,120 yuan/ton, following a decline of 11.36% in September [1][2] - On October 15, the average pig price in Guangdong was reported at 4.98:1, entering a warning zone for excessive decline [2] - The national average pig price saw a slight increase of 0.01 yuan/kg on October 14 and further rose by 0.11 yuan/kg on October 15, surpassing 11 yuan/kg [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Increased supply from breeding farms and insufficient demand have led to a rapid decline in pig prices since September [2] - The market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with significant outflows from major breeding enterprises [5][7] Market Sentiment and Investment - Recent inflows into livestock breeding ETFs indicate market optimism regarding short-term price stabilization and long-term industry potential [5] - Analysts suggest that the ongoing policy measures aimed at controlling production capacity and reducing weights will support a long-term price increase [7][9] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a capacity reduction cycle, with potential price increases anticipated in the second half of next year [7][9] - Short-term price pressures are likely to persist due to high production levels and reduced consumer demand post-holidays [9][10]

Core Insights - The average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province is reported at 4.98:1 as of October 15, indicating a significant decline that triggers a first-level warning under the established monitoring mechanism [1] - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission plans to initiate frozen pork reserve collection to stabilize the pig market and ensure supply [1] - Recommendations are made for farms to strategically manage production and maintain stable pig production capacity and normal market rhythms for both slaughter and replenishment [1]

Core Insights - The average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province has been declining, prompting the government to initiate frozen pork reserve collection [1] Price Monitoring - As of September 9, the average pig-to-grain price ratio was 5.93:1, entering the excessive decline warning zone [1] - By September 23, the ratio dropped to 5.64:1, remaining between 5:1 and 6:1 for three consecutive weeks, thus entering the second-level warning zone [1] - On October 15, the ratio further decreased to 4.98:1, entering the first-level warning zone [1] Government Actions - The Guangdong government plans to start frozen pork reserve collection to stabilize the pig market [1] - Slaughtering and processing enterprises are advised to take the opportunity to replenish their inventories [1] - Breeding farms are encouraged to manage their production capacity rationally [1]

Core Insights - On October 15, the average pig-to-grain price ratio in Guangdong Province reached 4.98:1, entering the first-level warning zone for excessive decline as defined by a joint plan from five provincial departments [1] - In response, the Guangdong government will initiate the storage of frozen pork reserves to stabilize the live pig market [1] - The government also advises farming operations to make informed decisions to maintain stable production capacity and normal rhythms for both slaughtering and restocking [1]