（来源：光伏见闻） 而在供给端，多晶硅生产企业正试图以 "减产协议" 为议价筹码推动涨价——此前行业内多家企业达成 减产共识，成为其提价的核心依据。但这一策略的实际效果存疑：SMM指出，目前已有部分二三线多 晶硅企业恢复生产，直接削弱了减产协议对市场供给的约束作用，后续多晶硅价格能否持续上涨仍需观 察供需关系变化。 继8月价格相对平稳后，中国多晶硅价格本周再度大幅上涨，受此传导影响，全球多晶硅平均价格环比 上涨3.9%，升至6.48美元/kg。 非中国产多晶硅价格未受此次波动影响——据InfoLink数据，其价格指数保持稳定，仍维持在18美 元/kg。 从产业链供需端来看，当前市场呈现"采购降温、库存高企"的特点：8月底中国硅片企业曾集中加大多 晶硅采购量，但进入本周后，企业观望情绪明显升温，已开始主动拒绝高价多晶硅报价。据SMM统 计，截至8月底，硅片企业的多晶硅库存总量已达20.8万吨，且绝大部分库存集中在隆基、TCL中环两 大头部企业手中，中小硅片企业库存压力相对较小。 从各数据机构的统计来看，本周中国多晶硅的涨幅呈现显著差异：硅业分会数据显示，多晶硅均价上涨 1.1元/kg；InfoLink报告的涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have been on a downward trend for four consecutive weeks, leading to a likely decrease in domestic refined oil prices after the Spring Festival [2][4]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have dropped due to market panic, with light crude oil futures closing at $51.56 per barrel, down 4.8%, and Brent crude at $58.16 per barrel, down approximately 4% [2]. - The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about China's oil demand, impacting global speculative trading and contributing to the decline in oil prices [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the panic surrounding the pandemic subsides, oil prices may experience a recovery phase [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustments - As of February 3, the average price of reference crude oil was $60.74 per barrel, with a change rate of -6.92%, indicating a potential decrease of 360 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [4]. - This would mark the first decrease in domestic refined oil prices in 2020, following a previous adjustment on January 14, where no changes were made [4]. - The next adjustment window for refined oil prices will open on February 18, following the "ten working days adjustment" principle [6]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Current demand for gasoline and diesel in the domestic market is weak, with significant reductions in personal vehicle usage and limited logistics support for diesel due to the holiday period [5]. - Despite some signs of increased diesel transactions, overall refined oil consumption remains pessimistic, with social inventories on the rise [5]. - The reduction in refinery output may limit further declines in gasoline and diesel prices [5].