Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have been on a downward trend for four consecutive weeks, leading to a likely decrease in domestic refined oil prices after the Spring Festival [2][4]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have dropped due to market panic, with light crude oil futures closing at $51.56 per barrel, down 4.8%, and Brent crude at $58.16 per barrel, down approximately 4% [2]. - The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised concerns about China's oil demand, impacting global speculative trading and contributing to the decline in oil prices [2]. - Analysts suggest that if the panic surrounding the pandemic subsides, oil prices may experience a recovery phase [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Refined Oil Price Adjustments - As of February 3, the average price of reference crude oil was $60.74 per barrel, with a change rate of -6.92%, indicating a potential decrease of 360 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [4]. - This would mark the first decrease in domestic refined oil prices in 2020, following a previous adjustment on January 14, where no changes were made [4]. - The next adjustment window for refined oil prices will open on February 18, following the "ten working days adjustment" principle [6]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Current demand for gasoline and diesel in the domestic market is weak, with significant reductions in personal vehicle usage and limited logistics support for diesel due to the holiday period [5]. - Despite some signs of increased diesel transactions, overall refined oil consumption remains pessimistic, with social inventories on the rise [5]. - The reduction in refinery output may limit further declines in gasoline and diesel prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the container shipping market, due to the cease - fire news between Iran and Israel and some shipping companies reducing spot prices, most contracts declined except the 06 contract. The short - term sentiment is weak, and the long - term freight rate is not expected to be overly high under the background of the tariff trade war. It is recommended to operate with caution [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index dropped to a more than two - week low due to the decline in capesize ship freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, while the medium - sized ship market is expected to show an oscillating trend [13][17]. - In the tanker shipping market, the recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil shipping market, and the BDTI has rebounded. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market Performance: On June 24, 2025, most container shipping futures contracts declined, with EC2508 closing at 1772 points, down 5.49% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 1937.14 points, up 14.11% month - on - month, and the SCFI European line reported $1835/TEU on June 20, down 0.49% month - on - month [2][4]. - Logic Analysis: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered. Maersk's reduction of spot prices in the second week of July has led to concerns about an inflection point. In terms of demand, the possible extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations reduces the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from June to September 2025 is expected to increase in July. The repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East may cause the far - month contracts to fall again [5]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is weakly oscillating. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6][7]. Industry News - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the comprehensive PMI was 52.8. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh is severely congested. There are repeated developments in the Iran - Israel cease - fire news [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index fell to a more than two - week low, with the capesize ship freight index dropping and the panamax ship freight index rising [13]. - Spot Freight Rates: On June 23, the freight rates of some capesize ship routes declined, while those of some panamax ship routes increased [14]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazil's soybean export is expected to reach 1437 tons in June. In May, China's imports of US and Brazilian soybeans increased [15]. - Logic Analysis: The capesize ship market is pessimistic about future freight rates, and the panamax ship market has a slight increase in freight rates. The short - term freight rate is expected to enter a correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market is expected to oscillate [17]. Industry News - The inventory of seven major iron ore ports in Australia and Brazil increased. Typhoon "Sepat" is approaching Japan [18][19]. Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight Rates: On June 23, the Baltic Crude Oil Transport Index (BDTI) was 1099, up 4.27% month - on - month, and the Baltic Product Oil Transport Index (BCTI) was 720, up 1.69% month - on - month. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to geopolitical conflict premiums [21]. - Logic Analysis: The short - term demand is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the impact of market sentiment on freight rates needs to be observed [21]. Industry News - Israel will strongly respond to Iran's violation of the cease - fire. HSBC predicts the future trend of oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production and exports increased in April [22][24]. Relevant Attachments There are multiple figures in the report, including the SCFIS European and US West lines index, SCFI comprehensive index, BDI index, BDTI, and BCTI, etc., which visually present the historical trends of relevant data [25][33][39].

Group 1 - Brent crude oil futures for July closed at $64.74 [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI and Brent crude oil prices experienced slight increases on May 24, 2023, but both benchmarks recorded weekly declines [1] Price Summary - WTI crude oil futures closed at $61.53 per barrel, up $0.33, representing a 0.54% increase, but down 0.7% for the week [1] - Brent crude oil futures closed at $64.78 per barrel, up $0.34, representing a 0.53% increase, but down 1% for the week [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brent crude oil futures prices have reached their lowest level since March 2021 [1] Industry Summary - The decline in Brent crude oil prices indicates a significant shift in the oil market dynamics, potentially affecting global supply and demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - US crude oil futures prices have reached their lowest level since March 2021, closing at $58.21 per barrel [1] Industry Summary - The current price of $58.21 per barrel indicates a significant decline in crude oil prices, reflecting market conditions and potential oversupply issues [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, marking the lowest level since April 11 [1] Group 1 - The decline in WTI crude oil prices indicates a significant shift in the market, potentially affecting supply and demand dynamics [1] - The current price level may influence investment strategies within the energy sector, as lower prices could impact profitability for oil companies [1] - Market analysts may need to reassess forecasts and projections for oil prices in light of this recent downturn [1]