Core Insights - Despite short-term pressures, the Chinese consumer market remains large and diverse, presenting opportunities for companies with clear product positioning [2] - Understanding Chinese consumers is crucial, as their purchasing power is a key driver of economic growth and corporate expansion [2] Consumer Trends - The post-1995 generation, while only about 20% of the population, contributes approximately 40% of consumption, with their spending expected to grow by about 400% to 16 trillion RMB by 2035 [3] - This demographic values self-expression and authentic experiences, favoring experiential consumption such as travel and concerts, and they are significant contributors to luxury goods spending [3] - The average age of high-end consumers in China is only 29, indicating a young market with increasing purchasing power due to wealth inheritance [3] Market Dynamics - Local brands are gaining market share across various sectors, including electric vehicles, beauty products, and collectibles, due to their better understanding of Chinese consumers and competitive pricing [4] - The luxury goods sector is also witnessing a shift towards high-quality, creative brands that reflect Chinese craftsmanship [4] - The jewelry market, characterized by a large capacity and relatively few international competitors, presents opportunities for brands that emphasize cultural and artisanal value [4] Travel and Consumption - The rapid recovery of outbound tourism is expected to impact domestic luxury consumption, as international flight capacity has reached approximately 93% of pre-pandemic levels, with a 20% year-on-year increase in international passenger flights from January to August [4] - The growth of outbound tourism aligns with the demand for experiential consumption, although it may divert some spending from domestic luxury markets [4] Long-term Outlook - The continuous growth of local brands and the recovery of outbound tourism indicate a diversification of the Chinese consumer market [4] - The increasing purchasing power of the post-1995 generation suggests a positive long-term outlook for the Chinese consumption market, despite short-term challenges [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lingnan Holdings is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported revenue of 2.09 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, up 24.39% year-on-year [7] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.167 billion yuan, a 15.06% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 23 million yuan, which is a 48.98% increase year-on-year [7] - The travel agency business, Guangzhilv, performed well, with revenue of 1.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.76% [7] - The hotel business showed steady growth, with revenue of 442 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel businesses across the South China market and nationwide, benefiting from the recovery of outbound tourism post-pandemic [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 3.435 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 232.07% year-on-year [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is forecasted at 69.49 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 139.03% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023A is projected to be 0.10 yuan [8] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 4.057 billion yuan by 2025E [8] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be 39.03% [5]