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大摩:市场低估了xAI对特斯拉的意义,FSD 14.3或将成为自动驾驶的“蒸汽机时刻”
华尔街见闻· 2025-11-11 05:59
Core Insights - The approval of Elon Musk's compensation plan by shareholders is seen as noise, while the real value of the report lies in revealing key signals that will profoundly impact Tesla's stock price in the next 6-12 months [1] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that Tesla's relationship with xAI, advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD), vertical integration of chips, distributed inference cloud networks, space AI satellites, and the revolutionary production method of Cybercab will reshape Tesla's long-term value, pointing towards an AI-driven "Muskonomy" [1] Group 1: Tesla and xAI Relationship - The market seems to overlook the symbiotic relationship between Tesla and xAI, which is crucial for Tesla's long-term success [6] - The report highlights that the financial and strategic relationship between the two companies will become increasingly evident as Tesla enters the next phase of physical AI and autonomous driving [7] - A recursive loop in data, hardware, and manufacturing between Tesla and xAI is established, with their value systems stemming from the same creator, which is critical for the future success of Tesla's physical AI and autonomous driving [8] Group 2: Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Technological Breakthroughs - Musk's confidence in FSD V14.3 achieving "texting while driving" garnered significant applause, indicating the market may underestimate the importance of this moment [10] - Transitioning driving responsibility from humans to pure visual algorithms represents a historic technological breakthrough in the transportation sector, akin to the "steam engine moment" [11] Group 3: Distributed Inference Cloud and AI Satellites - Musk proposed a "massive" distributed inference cloud, offering $100 or $200 monthly to car owners for allowing Tesla to perform AI inference calculations when their vehicles are not in use, potentially creating an unprecedented edge computing network [12] - The concept of "solar AI satellites" suggests a strategic collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX in the realm of space computing, addressing the growing demand for computational power and energy [14] Group 4: Revolutionary Manufacturing Techniques - The production goal for Cybercab is set at "one vehicle every 10 seconds," significantly surpassing the traditional automotive manufacturing pace of 60-90 seconds, indicating a major leap in mass production methods since Henry Ford [16] - Tesla aims to implement a "non-box" production line with minimalist design and nearly zero customization, utilizing pre-coated plastic composite materials for vehicle panels, potentially eliminating the need for paint shops [16]