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大摩:市场低估了xAI对特斯拉的意义,FSD 14.3或将成为自动驾驶的“蒸汽机时刻”
华尔街见闻· 2025-11-11 05:59
Core Insights - The approval of Elon Musk's compensation plan by shareholders is seen as noise, while the real value of the report lies in revealing key signals that will profoundly impact Tesla's stock price in the next 6-12 months [1] - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that Tesla's relationship with xAI, advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD), vertical integration of chips, distributed inference cloud networks, space AI satellites, and the revolutionary production method of Cybercab will reshape Tesla's long-term value, pointing towards an AI-driven "Muskonomy" [1] Group 1: Tesla and xAI Relationship - The market seems to overlook the symbiotic relationship between Tesla and xAI, which is crucial for Tesla's long-term success [6] - The report highlights that the financial and strategic relationship between the two companies will become increasingly evident as Tesla enters the next phase of physical AI and autonomous driving [7] - A recursive loop in data, hardware, and manufacturing between Tesla and xAI is established, with their value systems stemming from the same creator, which is critical for the future success of Tesla's physical AI and autonomous driving [8] Group 2: Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Technological Breakthroughs - Musk's confidence in FSD V14.3 achieving "texting while driving" garnered significant applause, indicating the market may underestimate the importance of this moment [10] - Transitioning driving responsibility from humans to pure visual algorithms represents a historic technological breakthrough in the transportation sector, akin to the "steam engine moment" [11] Group 3: Distributed Inference Cloud and AI Satellites - Musk proposed a "massive" distributed inference cloud, offering $100 or $200 monthly to car owners for allowing Tesla to perform AI inference calculations when their vehicles are not in use, potentially creating an unprecedented edge computing network [12] - The concept of "solar AI satellites" suggests a strategic collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX in the realm of space computing, addressing the growing demand for computational power and energy [14] Group 4: Revolutionary Manufacturing Techniques - The production goal for Cybercab is set at "one vehicle every 10 seconds," significantly surpassing the traditional automotive manufacturing pace of 60-90 seconds, indicating a major leap in mass production methods since Henry Ford [16] - Tesla aims to implement a "non-box" production line with minimalist design and nearly zero customization, utilizing pre-coated plastic composite materials for vehicle panels, potentially eliminating the need for paint shops [16]
大摩:市场低估了xAI对特斯拉的意义,FSD 14.3或将成为自动驾驶的“蒸汽机时刻”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-11-11 02:48
Core Insights - The market has focused on Elon Musk's high compensation, but Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the strategic points from Tesla's shareholder meeting are being overlooked [1] - Key signals that will profoundly impact Tesla's stock price in the next 6-12 months include the relationship with xAI, advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD), vertical integration of chips, distributed inference cloud networks, space AI satellites, and revolutionary production methods for Cybercab [1] Group 1: Tesla and xAI Relationship - The relationship between Tesla and xAI is crucial for Tesla's long-term success, with both companies forming a recursive loop in data, hardware, and manufacturing [4] - Tesla may build a "gigantic chip factory" to support its ambitious plans for billions of robots, ensuring supply and innovation in reasoning chips [4] - The market has underestimated the significance of Musk's confidence in FSD V14.3, which will allow texting while driving [4] Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - Transitioning driving responsibility from humans to pure visual algorithms represents a historic technological breakthrough in transportation [5] - Musk proposed a "massive" distributed inference cloud, offering $100 or $200 monthly to car owners for AI processing when their vehicles are idle, potentially creating an unprecedented edge computing network [5] Group 3: Future Innovations - The report highlights two future-oriented concepts: solar AI satellites and the production target for Cybercab [6] - The collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX in space computing is underscored by the potential of solar AI satellites, which could address human demands for computing and power [6] - Tesla aims for a production rate of "one vehicle every 10 seconds" for Cybercab, significantly faster than traditional automotive manufacturing, indicating a major leap in mass production methods [6]