Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from 14 countries, which has led to a decline in gold prices, while central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, indicating a strong demand for gold as a diversified asset amidst geopolitical risks [2][4]. Group 1: Tariffs and Gold Prices - U.S. President Trump announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, contributing to a drop in gold prices, which fell below $3,300 per ounce, a decrease of approximately $200 from the historical high in late April [2]. - Despite the decline in gold prices, global central banks have been net buyers of gold, with a reported purchase of 20 tons in May, and China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces by the end of June [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - The trend of central banks purchasing gold has been ongoing for over a decade, driven by the need for asset diversification, particularly in light of increasing geopolitical risks [2][4]. - It is projected that global central banks will purchase over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for about 25% of total global gold demand each year, which is seen as a significant factor in the recent rise in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors are expected to continue diversifying their portfolios, with gold being a favored asset due to its low correlation with other assets and its status as a physical asset [5][7]. - The current macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks are likely to keep gold as a preferred choice for risk-averse investors, with expectations of increased gold prices in the coming quarters [5][6]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - UBS has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 to $3,500 per ounce, citing ongoing investor interest in gold as a diversification strategy amidst economic uncertainties [5]. - Short-term market dynamics may allow for further price corrections, but there remains significant interest in buying gold at lower prices, indicating a potential for price recovery [8]. Group 5: Indicators for Gold Price Movements - Key indicators for assessing short-term gold price movements include tracking gold ETF fund flows, futures market positions, and physical investment market indicators such as premiums or discounts in key markets like India and China [9].

"系统性的秩序崩溃，一生只遇一次。但历史上，它从未缺席。" "我确实同意'不制造东西是个大问题'，但问题是，我们是否具备制造能力？" 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧4月7日在LinkedIn上发布了一篇文章，谈及关税问题。 他表示，我们当前正目睹一场典型的货币、政治与地缘政治秩序的崩溃。这种类型的系统崩溃大约一生 只会发生一次，但历史上每当存在类似不可持续的条件时，它们就会发生。 美东时间4月8日，瑞·达利欧接受CNBC访谈，在15分钟的对话中，再次强调了自己的观点。而面对三位 王牌主持人的犀利提问，达利欧也有一说一。 他没有给出热词，也没有唱衰，更像一位老练的机械师，打开系统，审视结构，拆解压力，试图回答一 个本质的问题：我们还能维持现有的运行方式吗？ 在这场访谈中，达利欧用他一贯的思考框架，提供了目前谈论关税的本质背景：存在的三大秩序正在瓦 解，而人类历史上的五种重要力量也始终在作用着，"关税其实是在应对全球失衡的问题"。 他承认，完全同意"不制造东西是个大问题"，也认同制造业回流的目标，"但是，我们是否具备制造能 力？这是一个更深的结构性问题。" 达利欧的人间清醒在于，他把美国人口结构剖出来看，并认为可行性太 ...