刚果(金)钴出口配额政策
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股价年内飙涨117%!华友钴业三季度营收创新高背后,盈利增速为何放缓?
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-10-23 10:36
Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt's profit growth is showing signs of fatigue after a strong performance over the past six months, with third-quarter results indicating a slowdown in profit growth despite a significant increase in revenue [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Huayou Cobalt achieved revenue of 21.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.53% year-on-year [2][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, a 29.57% increase, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [9]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.18%, slightly down from 17.53% in the same period last year [10]. Market Dynamics - The surge in Huayou Cobalt's stock price, which reached a historical high of 73 yuan per share, is attributed to macroeconomic cycles, geopolitical factors, and fundamental industry dynamics, with a significant influence from cobalt price increases [3][4]. - The Congolese government's cobalt export ban, which has been extended multiple times, has led to a tightening of global cobalt supply, contributing to rising cobalt prices [4][7]. Cobalt Supply and Pricing - The new export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) limits cobalt exports to 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025, with Huayou Cobalt receiving only 1.2% of the total quota [4][6]. - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, from $37,787 per ton at the end of September to $44,290 per ton by October 20, marking a 17.2% increase and over 121.5% rise compared to the average price of $20,000 per ton at the beginning of the year [4][6]. Competitive Position - Huayou Cobalt's reliance on Indonesian nickel projects for cobalt supply means it is less affected by the DRC's quota policies, but it can still benefit from higher cobalt prices due to supply constraints [6][7]. - Compared to competitors like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt's cobalt product revenue and profit contributions are lower, indicating a difference in industry structure and sensitivity to price cycles [10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue engaging in overseas resource allocation and integrating into international industrial divisions to drive high-quality development amid a complex macro environment [12].