Core Viewpoint - Jinling Mining (000655.SZ) currently does not have any cobalt products available [1] Company Summary - The company has communicated through its investor interaction platform regarding the absence of cobalt products [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tengyuan Cobalt Industry experienced a decline of 5.05% in its stock price, reaching 66.35 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 226 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.63%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 19.554 billion CNY [1] - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, established on March 26, 2004, and listed on March 17, 2022, is located in the Gannan High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Jiangxi Province. The company specializes in the production and sales of hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, non-ferrous metal smelting, and recycling of used power batteries for electric vehicles, among other activities [1] - The main revenue composition of the company includes cobalt products at 47.56%, copper products at 44.39%, and other products at 8.05% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under China Merchants Fund has a significant position in Tengyuan Cobalt Industry. The fund, China Merchants CSI 1000 Index Enhanced A (004194), held 191,000 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 0.88% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for the fund on the current day is approximately 674,200 CNY. The fund was established on March 3, 2017, with a latest scale of 1.012 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 34.59% [2]

Core Insights - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.05% increase in stock price, reaching 65.97 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 4.603 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.76%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 125.295 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Huayou Cobalt, established on May 22, 2002, and listed on January 29, 2015, is located in the Tongxiang Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province. The company specializes in the research and manufacturing of new energy lithium battery materials and cobalt new materials [1] - The revenue composition of Huayou Cobalt includes: nickel products (34.54%), cathode materials (16.28%), trading and others (15.55%), nickel intermediates (14.91%), copper products (5.95%), ternary precursors (5.25%), lithium products (4.18%), and cobalt products (3.33%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Chuangjin Hexin holds a significant position in Huayou Cobalt. The Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selected Stock A (003624) held 638,400 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 5.14% of the fund's net value, making it the fourth-largest holding. The estimated floating profit for today is approximately 2.0237 million CNY [2] - The Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selected Stock A (003624) was established on November 2, 2016, with a current scale of 372 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 67.61%, ranking 280 out of 4,216 in its category; the one-year return is 51.99%, ranking 710 out of 3,885; and since inception, the return is 276.33% [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund managers for Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Selected Stock A (003624) are Li You and Huang Chao. Li You has a cumulative tenure of 9 years, managing assets totaling 4.582 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 262.31% and the worst being -42.15% [3] - Huang Chao has a cumulative tenure of 2 years and 173 days, managing assets totaling 819 million CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 61.64% and the worst being 59.67% [3]

Core Insights - Tengyuan Cobalt's Q3 revenue reached 2.219 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.60% [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 282 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 47.84% [1] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue was 5.752 billion yuan, up 17.65% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for the first three quarters amounted to 751 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.65% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt's profit growth is showing signs of fatigue after a strong performance over the past six months, with third-quarter results indicating a slowdown in profit growth despite a significant increase in revenue [2][9]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Huayou Cobalt achieved revenue of 21.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.53% year-on-year [2][9]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 58.941 billion yuan, a 29.57% increase, and a net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [9]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 16.18%, slightly down from 17.53% in the same period last year [10]. Market Dynamics - The surge in Huayou Cobalt's stock price, which reached a historical high of 73 yuan per share, is attributed to macroeconomic cycles, geopolitical factors, and fundamental industry dynamics, with a significant influence from cobalt price increases [3][4]. - The Congolese government's cobalt export ban, which has been extended multiple times, has led to a tightening of global cobalt supply, contributing to rising cobalt prices [4][7]. Cobalt Supply and Pricing - The new export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) limits cobalt exports to 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025, with Huayou Cobalt receiving only 1.2% of the total quota [4][6]. - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, from $37,787 per ton at the end of September to $44,290 per ton by October 20, marking a 17.2% increase and over 121.5% rise compared to the average price of $20,000 per ton at the beginning of the year [4][6]. Competitive Position - Huayou Cobalt's reliance on Indonesian nickel projects for cobalt supply means it is less affected by the DRC's quota policies, but it can still benefit from higher cobalt prices due to supply constraints [6][7]. - Compared to competitors like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt's cobalt product revenue and profit contributions are lower, indicating a difference in industry structure and sensitivity to price cycles [10]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue engaging in overseas resource allocation and integrating into international industrial divisions to drive high-quality development amid a complex macro environment [12].

Core Insights - Huayou Cobalt experienced a 1.47% decline in stock price on October 22, with a trading volume of 3.056 billion yuan and a net financing outflow of 401.51 million yuan [1] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025, with revenue reaching 58.941 billion yuan, up 29.57% year-on-year, and net profit of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [2] - Huayou Cobalt has a high financing balance, with 54.07 billion yuan, representing 4.65% of its market capitalization, indicating a strong position in the market [1] Financing and Trading Activity - On October 22, Huayou Cobalt had a financing buy amount of 397 million yuan and a financing repayment of 401 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for Huayou Cobalt reached 5.415 billion yuan, with the financing balance exceeding the 90th percentile of the past year [1] - The company had a securities lending balance of 823.88 million yuan, which is above the 80th percentile of the past year [1] Shareholder and Dividend Information - As of September 30, 2025, Huayou Cobalt had 257,100 shareholders, an increase of 31.78%, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 15.22% to 7,328 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 3.876 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.835 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and various ETFs, with some increasing and others decreasing their holdings [3]

Macro Strategy - The GDP growth rate remains resilient, with an expectation to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [1][22] - In Q3, GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, while cumulative growth for the first three quarters was 5.2% [22] - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [22] - External demand outperformed expectations with exports growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while internal demand continued to face pressure [22] Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains strong amid ongoing Sino-US trade tensions, but short-term participation is advised with caution [3] - The yield curve has steepened since the "anti-involution" policy was introduced in July 2025, with the 10-1Y spread at 38 basis points, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The recommendation is to shift positions from 30Y to 10Y bonds to mitigate duration risk while maintaining a balanced approach [3] Company Analysis Fuyao Glass (600660) - The Q3 performance met expectations, with adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] - The revised net profit estimates are 97.10 billion, 111.11 billion, and 131.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.72, 4.26, and 5.05 yuan [7] Chuangfeng Power (603129) - The company reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 11% in Q3, driven by strong demand for all-terrain vehicles [8] - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 18.7 billion, 24.7 billion, and 27.4 billion yuan respectively [8] Sien Electric (002028) - The company exceeded market expectations with a Q3 revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.99 billion yuan, up 49% [9] - The international market's high demand is expected to continue driving profitability [9] Longjin Environmental Protection (600388) - The company reported a 20.5% year-on-year increase in performance for the first three quarters, with significant contributions from green electricity and energy storage [20][21] Hikvision (002415) - The company achieved a net profit of 93.19 billion yuan in Q3, a 14.94% year-on-year increase, with a focus on AI and overseas growth [16][17] Hanwujing (688256) - The company reported a Q3 revenue growth of 1333%, with a net profit of 16.05 billion yuan [18] - The product ecosystem is expanding, supporting various AI applications across multiple industries [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huayou Cobalt (603799) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights stable nickel profits in Q3 and anticipates significant profit elasticity from rising cobalt prices in the future [7] - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 81.86 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 34.32% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 6.03 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.17% [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, up 29.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year [7] - Q3 2025 revenue was 21.74 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40.9% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [7] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 16.7%, slightly down from the previous quarter [7] Nickel and Cobalt Production Insights - Nickel is the main profit contributor, with expected nickel product shipments of 240,000 tons for the year [7] - Cobalt shipments are projected at approximately 35,000 tons for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 shipments increasing by 40% [7] - The report anticipates cobalt prices to rise to 400,000 yuan/ton, significantly boosting profit contributions in 2026 [7] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 6.0 billion, 9.0 billion, and 10.9 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19x, 13x, and 11x [7] - The target price is set at 95 yuan, based on a 20x P/E for 2026 [7] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.18 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [7] - Capital expenditure for the same period was 7.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 53.3% increase year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous growth in performance, significantly benefiting from the rising cobalt prices. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of approximately 589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 42.16 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity across various metals, including nickel, cobalt, copper, and lithium, with significant increases in output and sales expected in Q3 2025 [2]. - The implementation of Congo's export quota policy is expected to lead to a clear upward trend in cobalt prices, benefiting the company as the supply shortage situation remains unresolved [3]. - The company is making steady progress in project construction, enhancing its resource base and operational efficiency, particularly in nickel and lithium projects [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately 217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.85%, and a net profit of 15.05 billion yuan, up 11.53% year-on-year [1]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 59.74 billion yuan, 79.07 billion yuan, and 97.72 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20X, 15X, and 12X [5][6]. Production and Sales - Nickel projects are maintaining stable production, with cobalt product shipments expected to increase due to rising prices and inventory release [2]. - The company anticipates an increase in copper production as electricity supply improves in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2]. Pricing Trends - The prices for the company's main products in Q3 2025 were reported as follows: copper at 79,500 yuan/ton, cobalt at 266,800 yuan/ton, and nickel at 15,226 USD/ton, with cobalt prices showing a significant increase [3]. Project Development - The company is enhancing its resource base by investing in nickel and lithium projects, with ongoing construction of a nickel project in Indonesia and an increase in lithium resource estimates in Zimbabwe [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices have reached historical highs due to multiple factors, including heightened risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts. Despite some weakness in equity performance, it suggests increasing allocation to gold stocks [4][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the fundamentals of lithium as it approaches a bottom, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have recently reached historical highs driven by risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations. The report suggests that the current equity weakness is primarily due to fear of high prices, but this may be a temporary phenomenon [4] - The report recommends increasing allocation to gold stocks, noting that many companies are expected to show volume and price increases in Q3 [2][4] - Key companies to focus on include Zijin Mining, which has a current PE ratio of nearly 40 times, and other gold stocks with lower valuations [4] Industrial Metals - The report notes increased volatility in copper and aluminum prices due to rising risk events, with LME copper up 2.4% and aluminum up 1.8% [5] - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for copper and aluminum remains positive due to supply constraints and macroeconomic conditions [5] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and others in the copper sector, as well as high-dividend aluminum stocks [5][6] Energy and Minor Metals - The report discusses the long-term bullish outlook for cobalt prices, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo and expected shortages in the global cobalt market [6] - It also highlights the potential for lithium prices to reach a bottom in 2026, suggesting that investors should consider the lithium sector for future opportunities [6] - Companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, and others involved in the lithium supply chain [6]