Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry is gradually recovering from a bear market, with significant improvements observed in the innovative drug sector driven by policy support, clinical data catalysts, and record-high overseas licensing agreements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of license-out agreements by Chinese pharmaceutical companies has increased from 17 in 2018 to 94 in 2024, with upfront payments rising from approximately $200 million to over $4 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of about 16% [2]. - The total transaction value for license-out agreements reached over $50 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a doubling of license-out transaction values to $36.9 billion compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Changes in Business Development (BD) Models - The traditional license-out model is shifting towards a NewCo model, allowing both parties to co-own a new company responsible for the pipeline, enhancing collaboration and retaining some negotiation power for domestic companies [3]. - The proportion of upfront payments in BD transactions has significantly increased, with recent collaborations setting new records for upfront payments in the innovative drug sector [3]. Group 3: R&D Advancements - China's innovative drug industry has seen substantial improvements in R&D capabilities, with a notable increase in the number of first-in-class (FIC) drugs, covering 40% of global drug development targets [4]. - As of last year, Chinese companies ranked first in the development progress of 22% of these targets, indicating significant breakthroughs in original research [4]. Group 4: Clinical Data and Market Sentiment - The release of high-quality clinical data and presentations at major academic conferences have positively influenced market expectations, with a notable increase in the number of Chinese studies presented at the 2025 CSCO annual meeting [5]. - Positive financial signals from companies, including early signs of profitability and improved cash flow, are helping to reshape market perceptions regarding the sustainability of innovative drug companies [5]. Group 5: Cash Flow and Commercial Viability - The upfront payments from BD transactions are providing better cash flow for innovative drug companies, allowing them to alleviate cash flow pressures and transition towards more stable revenue streams [6]. - The increasing frequency of overseas transactions and the enhancement of commercialization capabilities are driving the recovery of valuations in the innovative drug sector [6][7]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The recent recovery in the pharmaceutical sector has led to a renewed interest from public funds, with suggestions for investors to adopt a phased approach to investing in the innovative drug sector, particularly through diversified ETFs [7].

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent surge in the innovative drug sector is the explosive growth in external business development (BD), which has led to increased valuations and heightened market sentiment [1] - The structure of BD transactions has evolved, moving from traditional license-out models to NewCo models, allowing for deeper binding between buyers and sellers [1] - The proportion of upfront payments in domestic pharmaceutical BD transactions has significantly increased, reaching new highs [1] Group 2 - 2025 is expected to be a turning point for domestic innovative drugs in terms of profitability, which will strengthen valuation logic [2] - Upfront payments from pipeline BD are providing better cash flow for many innovative drug companies, reducing their reliance on external financing [2] - The approval process for clinical trials for innovative drugs is accelerating, and the introduction of DRG 2.0 and prepayment systems is alleviating financial pressure on medical institutions [2] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical sector has been recovering since the first quarter of this year after a prolonged decline [3] - The Guotai innovative drug ETF (517110) is recommended for investors, as it covers leading innovative drug companies in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, providing a balanced long-term investment option [3]