从基本面的角度来看，2025年也有望成为国内创新药在财报角度实现盈利拐点的年份，这有望让估值逻 辑获得更强支撑。从现金流的角度来看，管线BD首付款为很多创新药公司提供了更好的现金流。国内 的创新药企逐步验证了其商业模式的可持续性和自我造血的能力，减少对于外部融资的依赖。随着出海 愈加频繁，潜在商业化能力逐步增强，共同驱动了本轮创新药估值的修复。 从今年2月下旬到3月初，随着医保支持创新药高质量发展的若干意见和丙类目录商保落地的政策预期增 强，板块得到修复，后面随着CSCO等重磅学术会议的临床数据催化、部分公司报表端提前扭亏的预期 以及国内药企海外授权在金额和数量上创出新高，持续催化了创新药板块整体的行情，最终迎来爆发。 本轮创新药行情的核心驱动力是什么？我们觉得最重要的因素之一就是对外BD进入爆发期，推动估值 提升和情绪高涨。而且近期BD形式与以往有了比较大的变化。首先BD交易从传统的license out延伸到 了NewCo的模式，最大的特点就是能够实现买卖双方更深度的绑定。其次，国内药企BD交易中的首付 款比例显著提高，金额创出新高。另一方面，从技术层面来看，中国创新药行业的研发实力也有显著提 升，中国原 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first five months of this year, China's innovative drug licensing agreements have exceeded $45.5 billion, nearly matching the total for the entire previous year, but the recent licensing deal by Rongchang Biopharma has surprised investors negatively [1][2]. Group 1: Licensing Deal Details - Rongchang Biopharma announced a licensing agreement with Vor Bio, granting exclusive rights for the development and commercialization of its product, Taitasip, outside Greater China [1]. - As part of the deal, Rongchang will receive $125 million in cash and warrants, including a $45 million upfront payment and $80 million in warrants, which represents approximately 23% of the company [2]. - Vor Bio is also obligated to pay up to $4.105 billion in milestone payments based on clinical development and commercialization, along with sales royalties [2]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Rongchang's stock plummeted, with A-shares hitting a 20% limit down and H-shares dropping over 25% [2]. - The A-share price fell from a high of 72 yuan per share to 61.61 yuan, while H-shares closed at 55.55 HKD, reflecting a 6.17% decline [2]. - Prior to the announcement, Rongchang's market capitalization had surged significantly, with A-shares increasing by 18 billion yuan and H-shares quadrupling in value [2][3]. Group 3: Concerns and Criticism - The upfront payment of $45 million was significantly lower than market expectations, contributing to the stock's decline [4]. - Vor Bio, the partner company, has a market capitalization of only $69.28 million and has faced financial difficulties, raising concerns about its ability to fulfill payment obligations [4]. - The "shell company" nature of the deal has led to skepticism, as it appears Rongchang is trading a product for a company with limited resources [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the negative market reaction, some investors see potential in the new leadership at Vor Bio, with Jean-Paul Kress, an experienced executive in immunology, appointed as CEO [6]. - However, Rongchang's other product, Vidisitamab, faces competition from new entrants like Hengrui Medicine, which could threaten its market share [6].