传统业务有望边际改善，九木继续扩张可期； 预计2025 年营收同比增长4.8%，归母净利润同比持平； 维持盈利预测与买入评级，维持33.80 元的目标价，对应20 倍2026 年P/E。 传统业务有望边际改善，九木继续扩张可期：晨光在前期业绩会中提及，1）公司于产品端减量提质， 并提供了更多强功能、情绪价值类与IP 赋能类产品；渠道端与商场中的文具/文创/杂货集合店和精品书 店合作，打造精品大店标杆，并增加与行业头部大店的合作粘性、引领优质校边店。晨光9M25 书写工 具/学生文具/办公文具业务的营收降幅已有所收窄，毛利率也有所提升，4Q25 业绩有望继续改善。2） 科力普进一步开拓央国企、省级以及市级集采客户，9M25 营收同比增长6%，4Q25 有望延续其前期表 现。9M25 晨光生活馆同比新开130 余门店至870 家，推动营收同比增长7%，其中九木杂物社营收同比 增长9%。四季度九木继续扩张可期。 预计2025 年营收同比增长4.8%，归母净利润同比持平：1）在相对低基数下，我们预计4Q25 晨光营收 同比增长13.3%，归母净利润同比增长19.9%，由我们此预计2025 年全年晨光营收同比增长4.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.39 billion yuan, remaining basically flat year-on-year. The growth in revenue was primarily driven by new housing and rental businesses, while the lower profit growth was due to a decrease in the proportion of high-margin existing housing business, leading to a decline in overall gross margin by 4.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q1 2025, revenue from existing housing, new housing, home decoration, and rental businesses was 6.9 billion, 8.1 billion, 2.9 billion, and 5.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +20.0%, +64.2%, +22.3%, and +93.8%. The new housing and rental businesses were the main contributors to the rapid revenue growth [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 was 20.7%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year and down 2.3 percentage points from the previous quarter. This decline was mainly due to the reduced proportion of existing housing business in total revenue, which accounted for 29.5% in Q1, down 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Expansion - As of the end of Q1, the number of stores on the platform reached nearly 57,000, a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and the number of agents reached nearly 550,000, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. This continuous expansion of stores and agents contributed to a significant increase in the company's GTV, which totaled 843.7 billion yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 34.0% [2]. - The GTV for existing housing transactions was 580.3 billion yuan, up 28.1% year-on-year, while new housing transactions reached 232.2 billion yuan, up 53.0%, significantly outperforming the national year-on-year decline of 2.1% in commodity housing sales [2]. Financial Position - As of the end of Q1, the company had a cash balance of 12.77 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% from the end of 2024. In Q1, the company repurchased shares worth 140 million USD, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital at the end of 2024, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3].