文化产业进出口特征：传统和新业态的此消彼长 其一，传统文化贸易领域增长态势疲软。 在全球政治经济环境动荡不安、数字技术加速迭代的大背景下，文化贸易的产业链与价值链受到了较为 显著的冲击。《"十四五"文化发展规划》明确指出，要"提升文化贸易国际竞争力""大力发展数字文化 贸易"。当前，我国文化贸易凭借"软实力+硬科技" 的双轮驱动模式，不断拓展中华文化在国际上的影 响力。 近年来，中国文化贸易展现出蓬勃的活力。海关总署统计数据显示，2023年我国文化产品进出口总额达 1663.63亿美元。其中，以网剧、网文、网游为代表的数字文化新业态进出口规模整体呈上升趋势，成 为推动中华文化走向世界的重要力量。然而，我们也不能忽视文化贸易中存在的深层次矛盾以及面临的 国际竞争压力。 根据海关总署的统计数据，2023年我国传统文化产品出口额为1484.05亿美元，同比下降 9.3%；进口额 则逆势增长9.4%，达到173.70亿美元，贸易顺差缩小至1310.35亿美元。这一数据背后，反映出传统产 业发展正面临诸多挑战，主要体现在以下方面： 品类集中度高且附加值低。在我国文化出口领域，以办公文具和绘画材料为主的文化用品类、陶瓷与 ...

证券代码：002301 证券简称：齐心集团 深圳齐心集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-004 投资者关系活动类别 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 □现场参观□其他 （） 参与单位名称及人员姓名 华创证券刘一怡、周星宇，永赢基金庄子童 时间 2025 年 6 月 11 日 10:30-11:40 地点 深圳市坪山区锦绣中路 18 号齐心科技园公司会议室 交流形式 现场交流 上市公司接待人员姓名 公司副总经理、董事会秘书王占君 交流内容及具体问答记录 一、参观公司展厅 二、公司业务介绍 公司主营业务为 B2B 办公物资集采业务，持续聚焦央企、央管金融机构、政府、世界 500 强等优质大客户，其中当前 98 家央企中，已服务过半客户数。基于核心业务场景的客 户重叠度情况，公司在深度经营办公行政物资基础上，业务场景延展和强化 MRO 工业品、员 工福利和营销物料等核心场景和服务边界，深度契合客户业务发展过程中的新场景与新需 求，打造延展性的综合物资集采服务平台。 1.B2B 办公物资集采业务 证券代码：002301 证券简称：齐心集团 MRO 销售 ...

新华社北京5月20日电她是3个孩子的母亲，经营的一家小公司依靠与中国制造商的合作取得发展，如今却遭美国政府关税"大棒"的重击。于是， 这名曾经投票支持特朗普的企业主，把特朗普告上了法庭。 "我不能再沉默了。"埃米莉·利告诉《华盛顿邮报》记者，"关税正在扼杀企业。" 2012年，埃米莉与一家中国制造商建立了合作关系，业务"自那时开始起步"。 埃米莉的家族是共和党支持者。2016年美国总统选举中，她投票给共和党候选人特朗普，但很快发现，特朗普上台后推行的一系列政策与她的愿 望相背，关税政策推升她的经营成本、阻碍业务发展。 去年美国总统选举中，埃米莉没有投票给特朗普。特朗普竞选期间她就预料，如果特朗普当选，美国关税会再次增加。埃米莉说，虽然做了最坏 打算，但实际情况比最悲观的预期还要糟。 这是4月29日在美国洛杉矶港拍摄的集装箱和卡车。洛杉矶港执行董事吉恩·塞罗卡当天表示，随着美国关税政策导致企业削减进口订单，洛杉矶 港下周入境货运量预计将比去年同期下跌超过35%。新华社发（邱晨摄） 埃米莉的公司现有9人，通过线上和大型商超出售高端办公文具，一些特殊设计的记事簿在美国无法制造。特朗普政府打响关税战后，每本记事簿 所 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 晨光股份(603899) 投资评级 上次评级 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 晨光股份：线下零售延续压力，积极 探索 IP 产品 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 盈利预测：我们预计 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 15.2、16.6、18.2 亿 元，对应 PE 为 18X、16X、15X。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_Title] 晨光股份：25Q1 弱势平稳，积极调整货品结 构，中期稳健增长可期 风险因素：线下客流恢复不及预期，新品推出不及预期，科力普客户修复不 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 05 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 聚焦产品力与全渠道布局，IP 赋能注入新活力 ——晨光股份（603899）2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 晨光股份 | -3.9% | 3.8% | -14.5% | | 沪深 300 | -3.6% | -1.1% | 4.2% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/29 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 29.47 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 25.01-40.09 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 27,225.22 | | 流通市值（百万） | | | 27,225.22 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 92,382.84 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 92,382.84 | | 日均成交额（百万） | | | 383.88 | | 近一月换手（%） | | | 0.76 | 相关报告 《晨光股份（6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a gradual recovery in its traditional core business and new business segments, leading to long-term stable growth [10] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the company has shown signs of improvement that are anticipated to be released in the future [10] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 923.83 million [2] - Market price: ¥31.32 [2] - Market capitalization: ¥28,934.31 million [2] - Revenue forecast for 2023A: ¥23,351 million, with a growth rate of 17% [4] - Projected revenue for 2024A: ¥24,228 million, with a growth rate of 4% [4] - Projected net profit for 2025E: ¥1,693 million, with a growth rate of 21% [4] - Projected EPS for 2025E: ¥1.83 [4] Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of ¥5.645 billion in writing tools, showing a slight decline of 0.07% year-on-year [8] - The online business segment, particularly Morning Glory Technology, achieved a revenue of ¥3.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.57% [10] - The retail segment, including Jiuwu Miscellaneous Society, reported a revenue of ¥4.01 billion, with an increase of 8.03% year-on-year [9] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved slightly to 20.65%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The net profit margin decreased to 6.28%, down 1.08 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The projected net asset return rate for 2025E is 15% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future investment returns [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [5]. - The company is actively expanding into the "second dimension IP" sector, focusing on products that appeal to younger consumers, enhancing the emotional value of its offerings [7]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 7.5%, 6.4%, and 5.5% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 7.6%, 9.2%, and 8.5% in the same period [8]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.65%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.86 percentage points to 6.07% [6]. - The company’s revenue from various product lines showed mixed results, with writing tools and office supplies experiencing slight declines, while the "Morning Light Living Hall" and "Morning Light Technology" segments saw growth [5]. - The company expects revenues of 26.056 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.502 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend after a challenging 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morning Glory Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first quarter of 2025, marking the first such occurrence since 2021, with revenue at 5.245 billion yuan, down 4.39% year-on-year, and net profit at 318 million yuan, down 16.23% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Morning Glory achieved total revenue of 24.228 billion yuan, an increase of 3.76% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.396 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue across major business segments, including writing instruments, student stationery, and office supplies, with respective revenues of 803 million yuan, 848 million yuan, and 2.790 billion yuan, each declining over 5% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company categorizes its operations into traditional core businesses and new businesses, with the former including writing tools, student stationery, and office supplies, while the latter encompasses office direct sales and retail stores [2] - The office direct sales business, which has been a revenue pillar, accounted for over 50% of total revenue, but its gross margin fell to 7.08% in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [2] New Business Developments - The retail store business, represented by Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store and Morning Glory Life Hall, is seen as a key area for brand and product upgrades, with 792 retail stores nationwide as of the end of the first quarter of 2025 [2] - Jiuwu Miscellaneous Store reported revenue of 388 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 11.37% year-on-year, but faced a net loss of 12.4428 million yuan in 2024 [3] Strategic Focus - Morning Glory's management indicated plans to enhance investment in IP (intellectual property) products and increase the proportion of proprietary brands to cater to changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [3] - The company aims to leverage its independent toy brand "Qizhi Haowan" to focus on IP incubation and brand collaboration, targeting the "two-dimensional IP" market [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on enhancing product value through a strong IP and functional strategy, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs and expand its market presence internationally [4][15]. - The overseas market is showing initial signs of contribution, with a projected revenue of 1.039 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 22% year-on-year growth [4][15]. - The company plans to strengthen its IP strategy in 2025, targeting high-value stationery products that appeal to younger consumers [4][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.351 billion yuan - 2024A: 24.228 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.566 billion yuan - 2026E: 31.143 billion yuan - 2027E: 35.125 billion yuan - Net profit estimates are: - 2023A: 1.527 billion yuan - 2024A: 1.396 billion yuan - 2025E: 1.607 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.831 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.075 billion yuan - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023A: 1.65 yuan - 2024A: 1.51 yuan - 2025E: 1.74 yuan - 2026E: 1.98 yuan - 2027E: 2.25 yuan - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 18 times, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [3][4]. Product Strategy and Market Expansion - The company emphasizes product strength through a combination of strong IP and functionality, which has been a key driver for product upgrades [8][14]. - The independent brand "Qi Zhi Hao Wan" is rapidly developing, focusing on popular two-dimensional IPs and expanding its product offerings [20][22]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where it has established a significant market presence [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks, with a combined ratio of 73% in 2024 [4][15]. - The report anticipates steady growth in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected increases of 15%, 14%, and 13% respectively [4][15].