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利润释放周期
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安琪酵母(600298):以史为鉴 大周期起点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 10:29
Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to enter a profit release cycle starting in 2025, driven by favorable cost and capacity dynamics, alongside potential price increases due to demand recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Profit Release Cycle - Historical profit release cycles have shown that the company generally outperforms the food and beverage sector, with significant profit elasticity observed in 2009, 2016-2018, and 2020 [1]. - The three historical profit release cycles indicate that profit elasticity is primarily driven by faster price increases while sugar molasses costs remain low or decline [1]. - The company’s net profit margin increased by 6.8 percentage points in 2009, 10.7 percentage points from 2015-2017, and 3.6 percentage points in 2020, highlighting the correlation between cost management and pricing strategies [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The company anticipates maintaining double-digit revenue growth, with domestic demand stabilizing and overseas market expansion contributing to high growth rates [2]. - The sugar molasses price is expected to decline due to supply expansion, weak downstream demand, and falling corn prices, with recent bids in Guangxi dropping to 1000-1100 RMB per ton [2]. - The company is entering a favorable cycle where both cost and capacity pressures are expected to ease, potentially leading to price increases if demand recovers [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.64 billion, 1.92 billion, and 2.19 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 23.6%, 17.1%, and 14.4% respectively [3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 21, 18, and 16 times for the respective years, indicating that the company is still at a historically low valuation [3]. - The company is positioned at a fundamental turning point, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investment during this valuation bottom [3].
安琪酵母(600298):以史为鉴,大周期起点
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-24 08:56
证券研究报告 | 公司深度 gszqdatemark 2025 08 24 年 月 日 安琪酵母(600298.SH) 以史为鉴,大周期起点 股价复盘:利润弹性释放贡献超额收益。公司在利润释放周期前期相较于 食品饮料板块普遍具有超额收益,如 2009 年、2016-2018 年、2020 年, 拆分 EPS 和 PE 来看,我们判断超额收益的来源为利润弹性释放速度更快, 而这一时期估值表现与板块趋同或在前期有小幅超额上行。 盈利周期复盘:关注吨价-成本剪刀差走扩。复盘公司历史 3 轮利润释放 周期:(1)2009 年净利率同比+6.8pct,公司海外收入增长提速,2008 年因成本压力提价后 2009 年成本下行,且三大费率下降 2.8pct。(2) 2015-2017 年净利率合计+10.7pct,公司进入密集投产末期,产能饱和状 态下折旧压力减轻,且需求景气背景下公司主动提价,叠加糖蜜成本回落, 利润持续释放。(3)2020 年净利率同比+3.6pct,预计主要为小包装需求 旺盛公司主动提价等贡献。总结来看,3 轮利润弹性周期均为提价的同时 糖蜜成本处于相对低位或下行,建议重点关注公司主业吨价-糖蜜成本剪 ...