Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. The yields of major bank - interbank interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with the decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield within 1bp. The bank - interbank liquidity tightened marginally under continuous open - market withdrawals, and tax - period disturbances will increase next Monday [8][9][10]. - The February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. However, high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand remained strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. The unclear situation in the US - Iran conflict has boosted risk - aversion demand in the short term, but the sharp rise in oil prices has also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, bringing liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board as the bond market sentiment improved in the afternoon [8]. - The yields of major bank - interbank interest - rate bonds declined across the board, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield (250016) dropping 0.7bp to 1.8070% by 16:30 [9]. - The bank - interbank liquidity tightened marginally under continuous open - market withdrawals. The net open - market reverse - repurchase injection was 1.5 billion yuan today. Tax - period disturbances will increase as next Monday is the tax - payment deadline in March. The DR overnight rate in the inter - bank deposit market dropped 4.2bp to around 1.37%, the 7 - day funding rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.47%, and the medium - and long - term funding remained stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly around 1.56 - 1.58% [10]. Conclusion - The February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened, but high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production. Overseas export demand remained strong, as evidenced by good export data from January to February. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. The unclear situation in the US - Iran conflict has boosted risk - aversion demand in the short term, but the sharp rise in oil prices has also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The financial market has experienced significant fluctuations, bringing liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12]. 2. Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed, passing multiple resolutions and laws, including the resolution on the government work report, the resolution on the 14th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, the "Ecological Environment Code of the People's Republic of China", and approving the national economic and social development plan and the central budget for 2026 [13]. - The US government will launch two new trade investigations into the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners, including China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that China opposes all forms of unilateral tariff measures, and the so - called over - capacity is a false proposition [13]. - Some member banks were required to strengthen self - discipline management at a meeting of the market interest rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, with the proportion of inter - bank current deposits with an interest rate higher than the 7 - day reverse - repurchase OMO policy rate (1.4%) not exceeding 10% - 20% at the end of the quarter. It is expected that more than 10 trillion yuan of inter - bank deposits may see an interest - rate cut [13]. - The Ministry of Finance revised the classification of government revenue and expenditure in 2026, adding new expenditure items in the functional classification of government - funded budget expenditures related to the use of ultra - long - term special treasury bond revenues [14]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves to stabilize the soaring crude - oil prices during the US - Israel - Iran conflict. The G7 supports the use of strategic reserves to address the shortage of oil supply and market fluctuations [14]. - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan [15]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on March 12, 2026, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: The report mentions the changes in SHIBOR term structure and trends, as well as the changes in bank - interbank pledged - repurchase weighted interest rates and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase interest rates [30][34]. - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying has heated up again, causing treasury bond futures to strengthen in the afternoon and close higher across the board [8] - Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market have declined across the board, with medium - and long - term yields falling by about 2bp [9] - Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank has returned to net investment in the open market, and the money market has tightened. Short - term interest rates have risen across the board [10] - The economic data for August shows that the domestic demand recovery foundation is still weak, and there is no strong need for the domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus more on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. However, the suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures strengthened in the afternoon and closed higher across the board due to the rising expectation of the central bank restarting bond - buying. Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with medium - and long - term yields falling about 2bp. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropped 1.75bp to 1.7625% [8][9] - **Money Market**: Amid tax - period disturbances, the central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 3040 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, achieving a net investment of 1145 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose, while medium - and long - term funds changed little [10] - **Conclusion**: The economic data for August shows weak domestic demand recovery. There is no strong need for domestic monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September. Policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real - estate support, which may disrupt the bond market. The suppression from the stock market on the bond market may ease. The bond market may lack a breakthrough, and short - term bonds may be more resilient [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - From September 14th to 15th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Madrid, reaching a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok, reducing investment barriers, and promoting economic and trade cooperation [13] - On September 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive trend. From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, with private fixed - asset investment down 2.3%. Real - estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. In August, social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% [14] - At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. From January to August, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [15] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presents trading data of various treasury bond futures contracts on September 17th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Related Spreads and Trends**: It also shows information such as the inter - term spreads of treasury bond futures' main contracts, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and the trends of main contracts [17][19][22] - **Money Market**: It includes the term - structure changes and trends of SHIBOR, and the changes in the weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank deposit - based pledged repurchase [31][35] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the fixed - rate curves (mean values) of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [37]