Core Insights - The probability of the federal funds rate reaching the "zero lower bound" (ZLB) in the next seven years is estimated at 9%, with current rate uncertainty exacerbating this risk [2] - Despite higher expected interest rates compared to the past decade, significant uncertainty remains, keeping the ZLB risk notable [2] - Empirical evidence suggests that changes in interest rate expectations are the primary drivers of ZLB risk [2] Historical Context - The Federal Reserve first lowered rates to the 0%-0.25% range during the 2008 financial crisis to stimulate economic recovery, maintaining this level for seven years [3] - Rates were again reduced to zero in response to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, lasting for two years [3] - Recent research indicates that the risk of returning to ZLB persists, influenced by complex economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic sluggishness [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the successful merger of the RMB interest rate swap contracts between Guotai Junan Securities and Haitong Securities, facilitated by the Shanghai Clearing House, marking the largest scale of derivative contract consolidation in the interbank market to date [2] - The Shanghai Clearing House formed a working group within two weeks to develop a consolidation plan for the derivative positions, completing the internal processing within four days, and successfully merging nearly 3,000 centralized clearing contracts worth several hundred billion yuan [2] - Since 2014, the Shanghai Clearing House has launched a series of derivative products, including RMB interest rate swaps and standard interest rate swaps, effectively meeting diverse risk management needs and enhancing clearing efficiency [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the volume of interest rate derivatives reached a record high, with a total clearing scale of 36.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the clearing scale of interest rate derivatives exceeded 13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 70%, demonstrating their role as a "safe haven" amid adjustments in the bond market [3] - The maximum single-day clearing volume for interest rate derivatives surpassed 410 billion yuan, indicating significant growth in clearing activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of 3-year and 7-year standard bond forward contracts by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center and Shanghai Clearing House aims to enhance the development of the standard bond forward market, facilitate price discovery, and meet the diverse needs of market participants [1] Group 1 - The new products will strengthen the linkage between spot and futures markets, allowing investors to manage risks more precisely and expand trading strategies [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan actively participated in the standard bond forward business, being one of the most active trading institutions in the market [1] - On the first day of the new products' launch, Shenwan Hongyuan successfully completed transactions for both the 3-year and 7-year standard bond forward contracts, further expanding the trading targets in the interbank interest rate derivatives market [1] Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan is committed to deepening its business in the domestic bond and derivatives market, maintaining a leading position in standard bond forwards and interest rate options [1] - The company will continue to support the innovative development of domestic derivatives business and seize opportunities during the market innovation transformation period [1] - This support aims to contribute to the robust development of the interest rate derivatives market and enhance financial services for the real economy [1]