《华尔街日报》近期刊发了一篇深度分析文章，探讨了特朗普政府与美联储之间日益激化的冲突。 华尔街日报资深市场专栏作家James Mackintosh在文章中详细剖析了白宫对美联储主席鲍威尔施压降息的策略及其可能产生的适得其反效果。 Mackintosh通过对市场数据和政策机制的深入分析，揭示了一个看似矛盾的现象： 特朗普越是公开施压美联储，反而越难达成其降息目标 。文章认为 ， 这场 争端本质上反映了制度独立性与民粹主义之间的根本分歧。 据Mackintosh统计，在特朗普呼吁降息3个百分点的第二天，纽约联储衡量的10年期期限溢价升至0.84个百分点，高于他在4月份类似攻击后回落时的0.6个百 分点，更远高于去年选举前一个月的零水平。 Mackintosh指出，特朗普近几周来加大了对鲍威尔的攻击力度，希望推动美联储降息。然而，文章称，" 他喊得越响，越不可能得到他真正想要的：更低的政 府借贷成本和更便宜的抵押贷款。 "这种施压策略可能正在破坏投资者信心，推高长期债券收益率。 文章强调，这场冲突的核心在于两种截然不同的治理理念碰撞。特朗普的观点体现了"人民的声音就是上帝的声音"这一民粹主义理念，而美联储则恰恰相反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, highlighting the pressure exerted by Trump on Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates and the potential counterproductive effects of this strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Independence vs. Political Pressure - The conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve represents a fundamental clash between institutional independence and populism, questioning whether expert institutions can manage economic policy better than elected officials [2]. - Trump has called for a significant 3% rate cut, which would mark a radical shift and disrupt traditional economic models, although this may be more political rhetoric than a feasible policy [2]. - Current futures markets indicate a near-zero probability of a rate cut next week, with a 60% chance of a cut in September [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Real Costs - Market data supports the argument that political pressure on interest rate policy leads to increased inflation volatility, causing investors to demand higher compensation [3]. - Following Trump's call for a 3% rate cut, the 10-year Treasury yield premium rose to 0.84%, up from 0.6% after a similar attack in April, indicating a market response to political intervention [3]. Group 3: Misunderstanding of Mortgage Rates - Trump’s assertion that high interest rates are preventing home purchases is misleading, as standard 30-year fixed mortgage rates are more closely tied to long-term Treasury yields than to the Fed's overnight rates [5]. - Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the overnight rate has decreased by 1%, while the 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 6.2% to 6.75%, illustrating the complex relationship between these rates [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns and Policy Considerations - The article notes a divergence between the Trump administration and the Fed regarding the economic impact of tariffs, with the Fed taking a cautious approach due to past inflation misjudgments [6]. - Economic indicators supporting a rate cut include minimal inflation impact from tariffs, slightly above-target inflation, weak private sector hiring, slowing wage growth, and rising default rates on loans [6]. Group 5: Professional Justification for Rate Cuts - Concerns are raised about Trump's pressure tactics, suggesting that while there are valid reasons for the Fed to cut rates faster than expected, these should not be articulated by the President [7]. - The article advises the Trump administration to allow market and professional assessments based on economic data to justify rate cuts, rather than continuing to undermine the Fed's independence [7].