制裁与经济战

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大争之世中国如何把握主动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 20:52
Core Viewpoint - The book "Sanctions and Economic Warfare" emphasizes the increasing relevance of studying economic sanctions and warfare in the context of globalization and geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the United States [2][3]. Group 1: Globalization and Economic Warfare - The 21st century is characterized as a golden age for the study and practice of economic sanctions and warfare, driven by deepening globalization and complex interdependencies between nations [2]. - The current downward trend in globalization has led to rising international conflicts, yet the degree of interdependence among countries remains high, making sanctions a significant tool in geopolitical strategies [2]. - The ongoing struggle between sanctions and counter-sanctions is expected to disrupt international interdependence and division of labor, potentially limiting the applicability of sanctions in the future [2]. Group 2: China's Strategic Response - The urgency and strategic importance of researching sanctions and economic warfare are particularly pronounced for China, given the escalating political and economic competition with the U.S. [2][3]. - China recognizes the need to defend its political, economic, and strategic interests in the global system, necessitating the development of appropriate foreign policy tools, primarily relying on economic means rather than military or propaganda strategies [2]. Group 3: Theoretical Framework - The authors propose establishing a "Chinese paradigm" for sanctions and economic warfare theory, addressing deficiencies in existing Western frameworks, particularly those from U.S. academia [4][5]. - The critique of U.S. approaches highlights a misunderstanding of the effectiveness of economic sanctions, which often overlook the political motivations behind such policies [5]. - The book aims to build a theoretical system based on China's practical experiences and historical context, emphasizing the unique institutional advantages and strategic culture of China [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Case Studies - The book includes extensive case studies from various historical contexts, such as ancient Chinese strategies against northern tribes, the Continental System during the Napoleonic Wars, and modern sanctions against Russia amid the Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - These historical examples serve to validate the theoretical propositions and provide insights into the dynamics of sanctions and economic warfare [5].
为什么我们要研究制裁与经济战?
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-17 00:07
本文是我的新书《制裁与经济战》前言的节选部分。 21世纪是一个研究和实践制裁与经济战的黄金时代。 全球化向纵深发展,让各国之间形成了多元而不对称的复合相互依赖,也为制裁与经济战的运用提供了一个良好的条件。 更进一步,由于这种分工体系带来的网络效应,中心国家对外围国家的制裁能力和经济权力,不仅来源于中心国家的能力和 资源,还来源于全世界许多国家的能力和资源,甚至包括受制裁国自身的部分能力和资源。因此,在全球化高度发展的今 天,发生制裁与经济战的可能达到了前所未有的高度。 在本书酝酿和写作期间,全球化已经进入了下行期。 与1914—1945年间的上一个下行期相似,今天的时代特征是脱钩断链和保护主义而不是进一步强化分工,是公平、安全与韧 性优先而不是效率优先,是民粹浪潮和民族主义上升而不是理性、平和、开放、包容的声音占主流。正因如此,党的二十大 报告更强调动荡变革期的风高浪急和惊涛骇浪。 制裁要发挥作用,前提是发起国和目标国之间存在重要且不对称的经济相互依赖。在当今世界,除了朝 鲜等极少数例外,绝 大多数国家的福利和生计都与世界市场的波动紧密相连。人们消费的绝大部分商品和技术都依靠主要分布在东亚、北美、欧 洲的产业 ...