本文是我的新书《制裁与经济战》前言的节选部分。 21世纪是一个研究和实践制裁与经济战的黄金时代。 全球化向纵深发展，让各国之间形成了多元而不对称的复合相互依赖，也为制裁与经济战的运用提供了一个良好的条件。 更进一步，由于这种分工体系带来的网络效应，中心国家对外围国家的制裁能力和经济权力，不仅来源于中心国家的能力和 资源，还来源于全世界许多国家的能力和资源，甚至包括受制裁国自身的部分能力和资源。因此，在全球化高度发展的今 天，发生制裁与经济战的可能达到了前所未有的高度。 在本书酝酿和写作期间，全球化已经进入了下行期。 与1914—1945年间的上一个下行期相似，今天的时代特征是脱钩断链和保护主义而不是进一步强化分工，是公平、安全与韧 性优先而不是效率优先，是民粹浪潮和民族主义上升而不是理性、平和、开放、包容的声音占主流。正因如此，党的二十大 报告更强调动荡变革期的风高浪急和惊涛骇浪。 制裁要发挥作用，前提是发起国和目标国之间存在重要且不对称的经济相互依赖。在当今世界，除了朝 鲜等极少数例外，绝 大多数国家的福利和生计都与世界市场的波动紧密相连。人们消费的绝大部分商品和技术都依靠主要分布在东亚、北美、欧 洲的产业 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the disparity in economic recovery in Hong Kong, highlighting a "jobless recovery" phenomenon where GDP is growing but employment is not improving [1][4][5] - Despite a reported 10 consecutive quarters of GDP growth and a 16-month rise in exports, many residents feel the economic situation is poor, with low consumer spending and business closures [2][3] - The term "jobless recovery" is used to describe the current economic state of Hong Kong, indicating a lack of job growth despite overall economic indicators suggesting recovery [4][7] Group 2 - The article references a podcast discussing the economic conditions in Hong Kong, questioning the true state of the economy and the reasons behind the perceived disparity in economic experiences [5] - The concept of "jobless recovery" has historical roots, having been used since the 1990s to describe situations where economic growth does not correlate with job growth [7] - The discussion includes the broader implications of creating new economic concepts to explain unusual economic phenomena, suggesting that language plays a crucial role in shaping economic understanding [8][12][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project marks a significant investment opportunity in infrastructure and power grid sectors, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, comparable to the output of three Three Gorges projects [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has returned to the significant 3500-point level, raising questions about whether a bull market has begun, despite concerns over the absence of a fundamental turning point [4][12]. - The concept of "reflexivity" suggests that market movements are driven by investor expectations, which can create a self-reinforcing cycle of price increases and further investment [5][6][8]. - Historical patterns indicate that significant market rallies can occur even when fundamental improvements are not yet evident, driven by strong investor sentiment and capital inflows [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context - The 3500-point level has historically been a critical psychological barrier for the A-share market, with less than 10% of the time spent above this level [12][15]. - Past instances of the index reaching this level were associated with major market events, such as the stock split reform in 2005 and the introduction of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2014, which catalyzed significant capital inflows [15][16]. Group 3: Structural Changes - Recent policy changes have significantly enhanced the capital market's positioning, with increased support from government initiatives aimed at revitalizing the market [16][17]. - A notable shift in wealth allocation is occurring, with a decrease in the proportion of household assets tied to real estate and a substantial increase in public fund sizes, indicating a transition towards equity investments [18][20]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a need for strategic asset allocation, focusing on both undervalued high-dividend stocks and innovative sectors driven by technological advancements [27][28]. - The concept of a "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing investments between stable value stocks and high-growth sectors to navigate market volatility effectively [28].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing concerns over high leverage expansion and chaotic competition, with a call for regulatory measures to address "involution" in the sector [2][8] Group 1: Industry Concerns - Weijianjun's statement about the automotive industry having a "Hengda" reflects worries about high leverage and disordered competition [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced plans to intensify efforts to regulate "involution" in the automotive sector [2] - The term "next Hengda" is seen as a sensationalist narrative, while the real issue is the involutionary competition affecting the automotive and other industries [2][8] Group 2: Financial Comparisons - Li Yunfei from BYD refuted the "car circle Hengda" claim by comparing financial metrics of domestic and international car manufacturers, emphasizing the differences in financial structures [3] - The financial reports of car manufacturers and real estate companies are fundamentally different, making direct comparisons unprofessional [4][6] - The automotive industry operates on a cash flow model primarily from vehicle sales, contrasting with the high-leverage financing model of real estate [6][7] Group 3: Price Wars and Profitability - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, leading to a decline in industry profit margins from 4.3% in 2024 to 3.9% in Q1 2025, below the average for manufacturing [8] - The prevalence of price wars has resulted in a significant number of models being sold at reduced prices, with 70% of over 60 discounted models being driven by homogenous competition [8] - The ongoing price competition is reminiscent of the solar industry, which faced similar challenges leading to widespread losses [8][9] Group 4: Innovation and Market Dynamics - The rapid diffusion of technology in the automotive sector is creating an "innovator's dilemma," where advancements are quickly replicated, undermining competitive advantages [9][10] - The automotive industry must shift from price competition to value competition to build sustainable competitive advantages and avoid overcapacity [10] - Protecting innovation and moving away from involution is increasingly recognized as essential for the industry's future [10]

Core Insights - The article contrasts the investment philosophies and backgrounds of two legendary investors, Warren Buffett and George Soros, highlighting their differing approaches to investing and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Background and Early Influences - Warren Buffett grew up in a middle-class family in Omaha, Nebraska, with a father who was a stockbroker, which instilled in him a strong financial awareness and a disciplined approach to investing [4][5]. - In contrast, George Soros had a tumultuous childhood in Hungary, where he faced the threat of Nazi persecution, shaping his risk-averse yet opportunistic investment style [6][7][8]. - Soros's experiences during World War II, including his family's survival tactics, influenced his belief in preparing for future risks and adapting to changing circumstances [9][10]. Group 2: Education and Early Career - Soros arrived in London with little money, working while studying at the London School of Economics, where he was influenced by philosopher Karl Popper, shaping his critical thinking and investment strategies [14][15][16]. - Buffett, on the other hand, had a smoother educational path, studying business management at the University of Pennsylvania and later at Columbia University under Benjamin Graham, which solidified his value investing approach [17][18]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Philosophies - Soros found success in global arbitrage, leveraging his knowledge of European markets and relationships, particularly during the Suez Crisis, which allowed him to capitalize on market inefficiencies [19][20][21]. - Buffett's investment strategy focused on value investing, acquiring undervalued companies and waiting for their true value to be recognized, achieving an annualized return of 29% over 13 years [23][31]. - The article notes that Soros's approach is characterized by a focus on macroeconomic trends and market psychology, while Buffett emphasizes long-term value and the intrinsic worth of companies [35][36]. Group 4: Major Achievements and Turning Points - In the 1970s, Soros's Quantum Fund achieved remarkable returns, capitalizing on market volatility and employing leverage to maximize profits, particularly in currency markets [30][31]. - Buffett's investment in Berkshire Hathaway marked a significant shift in his strategy, focusing on acquiring great companies at reasonable prices, which led to substantial long-term gains [31][32]. - Both investors faced challenges in the 2000s, with Buffett's conservative approach to the internet boom and Soros's struggles in adapting to new market conditions, leading to a decline in their performance [33][34]. Group 5: Philosophical Differences - The article concludes that Buffett's investment philosophy is rooted in a belief in the inherent value of companies and a long-term perspective, while Soros's approach is more dynamic, focusing on the unpredictability of markets and the importance of quick decision-making [35][36][37].

Core Insights - Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound on May 27, 2025, with a price increase from a low of $108,000 to a high of $112,000, marking a 3.7% rise within 24 hours and a trading volume exceeding $120 billion, which is the highest in nearly two weeks [1] - This rebound restored Bitcoin's market capitalization to $2.2 trillion, solidifying its position as the fifth-largest asset globally [1] Technical Analysis - The "golden cross" signal was formed between the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200), indicating a bullish trend since the 2023 halving cycle [4] - The MACD histogram showed a "bottom reversal" signal with a 32% expansion during the rebound, the highest since December 2024 [5] - The rebound from $108,000 to $112,000 aligned perfectly with Fibonacci retracement levels, confirming technical analysis theories [6] Market Sentiment - The Fear and Greed Index saw a rapid recovery from 39 (fear zone) to 73 (greed zone) within 48 hours, indicating extreme volatility and a unique market ecology where sentiment often precedes price changes [7] - Whale addresses increased their holdings by 12,000 BTC during the price dip, indicating strong accumulation behavior [9] Macro Factors - The weakening of the US dollar and the shift in Trump's tariff policy contributed to increased investment in Bitcoin, with Asian investors accounting for 58% of the trading volume during this rebound [11] - Institutional inflows were driven by ETFs and sovereign funds, with significant algorithmic trading activity triggered by Bitcoin surpassing the $109,000 threshold [12] Investment Narrative - Bitcoin's narrative has shifted from "digital gold" to an "anti-inflation asset," with a 14.6% increase in price coinciding with a 3.7% rise in the US CPI, leading to recognition from traditional financial institutions [13] Future Outlook - If Bitcoin closes above $113,000 on a weekly basis, it could pave the way for a rise to $125,000, based on Fibonacci extension levels [17] - The potential introduction of the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" could bring in compliance funds worth hundreds of billions [17] - Historical data suggests that the fourth halving typically leads to significant price increases, averaging 285% over nine months [17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strategy meeting highlighted the investment opportunities in the banking wealth management market amidst high volatility, emphasizing the importance of rational investment strategies and asset allocation [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Wang Dong from Huayin Wealth Management suggests that investors should rationally view short-term market fluctuations and focus on assets with stable cash flows [1][7]. - The necessity of equity investment in wealth management products is emphasized, as pure fixed-income products fail to capture the benefits of corporate asset appreciation [2][4]. - A diversified investment portfolio should include both linear and non-linear tools to balance risk and return, adapting to the high volatility of financial assets [7]. Group 2: Asset Allocation - Wang Dong identifies three key considerations for equity investment: ensuring options are not overly expensive, avoiding valuation traps by selecting high-quality companies, and frequently rebalancing equity positions due to the short duration of wealth management products [4][6]. - Multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches are recommended to enhance portfolio robustness and achieve long-term compounding advantages [5][6]. - The importance of matching client profiles with product positioning is highlighted, ensuring that investment strategies align with individual risk preferences and market conditions [7]. Group 3: Market Analysis - The global market has experienced significant turbulence, with a notable decline in U.S. stocks and bonds, while Chinese assets have remained stable, indicating a shift in macroeconomic narratives [6][7]. - The current environment is characterized by rising geopolitical risks and a potential historical turning point, necessitating a cautious approach to investment [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to embrace stable cash flow assets and consider long-term strategies that capitalize on structural opportunities amidst uncertainty [7].

美国对全球加关税，最后导致大家报复美国加关税，不和美国贸易，难道美国觉得不对外贸 易对美国有好处吗？这样不是和闭关锁国差不多了？我感觉这是不现实的，关税战必然不持 久。 drwangting 别高估了美国人的抵抗力。 美国的经济70%是消费。其中，绝大多数的增量都是靠着有钱人，因为60%的穷人早就过着 pay check to pay check的日子，早榨干了。 40%的富人为什么这两年愿意花钱，因为股市大赚了。现在股市几天跌了15%，相当于上海 房子一年多的跌幅了。反正，上海人是不愿意多消费了，美国富人愿意消费吗？并且，贸易 战继续打下去，损失的也是跨国公司的利润，有可能利润进一步下跌，从而股市进一步下 跌，而股市下跌富人就更不愿意消费，最后公司的利润再下跌，这就是反身性。 同时，作为穷人，所有made in china的便宜货都没了，超市肯定要涨价吧，而且不但中国制 造的东西涨价，美国制造的也会跟着涨价。因为富人不消费，工作都有可能丢了。再加上 DOGE裁员，怒火都在懂王身上，有个火星就能点着了。 所以，对美国来说，贸易战，一定要迅速打，赚便宜，迅速结束。不然，整个经济就会出大 问题，而明年就是中期选举 ...