新华社纽约12月1日电（记者刘亚南）美国供应管理学会1日公布的调查报告显示，受关税政策和联邦政 府"停摆"等因素影响，11月美国制造业活动连续第9个月萎缩。 ...

Group 1: Gold and Oil Market Overview - Gold prices fluctuated around the $4000 mark, ultimately closing down 0.07% at $4000.44 per ounce [1] - Despite OPEC+'s plan to pause production increases in Q1 2026, concerns over oil supply surplus and weak Asian factory data persist, with WTI crude oil closing up 0.26% at $60.82 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 0.27% at $64.65 per barrel [1] - U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October, with the ISM manufacturing index declining by 0.4 to 48.7, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1] Group 2: U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The U.S. Treasury estimates borrowing of $569 billion in Q4, a decrease of $21 billion from July's forecast [2] - Federal Reserve officials express varying views on interest rate cuts, with some suggesting a series of 50 basis point cuts may be needed to reach neutral rates, while others highlight concerns over inflation data [2] - The possibility of a rate cut in December is open, contingent on forthcoming economic data [2] Group 3: OPEC's Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC anticipates that global oil demand will not peak in the short term, projecting an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day for this year [3]