2月26日，外交部发言人毛宁表示，我们正在密切关注伊朗局势的发展。中方一贯主张通过政治外交途 径解决问题，反对在国际关系中使用或威胁使用武力。中国和伊朗两国人民传统友好。中方支持伊朗政 府和人民维护国家稳定和正当权益，希望各方珍惜和平，保持克制，通过对话解决分歧。中方愿为此继 续发挥负责任大国作用。 美国和伊朗谈判的消息持续扰动原油市场。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2月26日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在 伊美第三轮间接谈判结束后表示，这是最严肃、持续时间最长的一次谈判。谈判取得了良好进展，在某 些领域，双方已接近达成共识。双方的技术团队将于3月2日在奥地利维也纳举行技术谈判。 随着美伊谈判暂时出现进展，2月26日，布伦特原油期货收跌0.14%，报每桶70.75美元。美国原油期货 收跌0.32%，报每桶65.21美元。但后续美伊谈判的形势仍不明朗，油价走势也充满不确定性。 美伊谈判桌上的每一次进退，霍尔木兹海峡的每一丝风吹草动，都在提醒我们：原油这一"工业血液"从 未远离政治的核心。 油价下行风险仍存 今年以来，国际油价一直在两种力量之间摇摆：一方面，市场普遍预期全球将出现供应过剩，令看空情 绪升温；另一方面，围绕伊朗的地 ...

智通财经APP获悉，西方石油(OXY.US)周三公布的第四季度利润超出华尔街预期，其中游业务的强劲 表现帮助抵消了原油价格走低的影响。根据LSEG汇编的数据，截至12月31日的三个月，西方石油公司 调整后每股收益为0.31美元，高于预期的0.18美元。营收同比下降5.2%至54.2亿美元。 在2019年以550亿美元收购Anadarko Petroleum以及去年以120亿美元收购CrownRock之后，西方石油公 司背负了巨额债务。截至12月31日，这家总部位于休斯顿的公司的长期债务为206.3亿美元。 第四季度业绩受到大宗商品价格下跌的影响，2025 年第四季度，石油天然气业务税前收入总计 7 亿美 元，而 2025 年第三季度为 13 亿美元。西方石油公司第四季度实现油价从去年同期的每桶 69.73 美元跌 至每桶 59.22 美元，但日产量略微上升至 148 万桶油当量，超出指引上限。四季度，对石油供应过剩的 担忧日益加剧，给全球油价带来了压力，全球原油平均实现价格价格下跌超过 9%。天然气凝析液价格 下跌15%至每桶16.68美元，而美国国内天然气实现价格下跌24%至每千立方英尺1.12美元。 此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to experience their first consecutive two-week decline of the year due to traders weighing multiple factors including potential supply increases from OPEC+, progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and overall market weakness earlier in the week [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Global benchmark Brent crude oil fell approximately 0.5% this week and remained stable on Friday [4]. - The decline is projected to end the long-term upward trend in oil prices that began in early 2026, which was primarily supported by recurring geopolitical tensions such as the US-Iran standoff [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Participants at an energy conference in London indicated that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand this year, potentially leading to an increase in inventories in the Atlantic Basin, the core pricing region for global oil [6]. - Despite the anticipated supply surplus, the impact on the market has been limited so far due to the backlog of sanctioned oil and supply disruptions in multiple countries [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Traders are closely monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations and efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6]. - US President Trump stated that the US-Iran negotiations could last up to a month, reducing the likelihood of immediate military action that could disrupt oil supplies [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to the Iran situation, with the monthly spread declining and the North Sea Brent basis falling to $1.005 per barrel. The first round of US-Iran nuclear negotiations lasted about six hours, and the second round is expected in the next few days. Netanyahu will meet with Trump next Wednesday to discuss the Iran issue. Iran stated it does not want a regional war. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased this week, with US commercial crude inventories declining by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventories by 5.553 million barrels due to the cold wave. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude for March. Singapore's refined oil inventories increased, while ARA's crude and refined oil inventories decreased. Domestic gasoline and diesel inventories increased. Short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily News - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is skeptical about the quality of any agreement with Iran, covering nuclear issues, ballistic missiles, and Iran's proxy problems. He also said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran [3][4] - The Trump administration secretly shipped about 6,000 Starlink terminals to Iran after the Iranian regime's crackdown on demonstrations last month to help anti - regime activists bypass the internet shutdown, though it's illegal in Iran [4] - The IEA lowered the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January's report, while keeping the large supply - surplus estimate basically unchanged. OPEC's research department predicted a growth of 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] 2. EIA Report (02/06 Week) - US crude oil exports decreased by 308,000 barrels per day to 3.739 million barrels per day [14] - US domestic crude oil production increased by 498,000 barrels to 13.713 million barrels per day [14] - Commercial crude inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 8.53 million barrels to 429 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [14] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.827 million barrels per day, a 2.36% increase year - on - year [14] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories decreased by 100,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.0% decrease [14] - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.805 million barrels per day, an increase of 604,000 barrels per day from the previous week [14] 3. Inventory - No detailed summary information provided other than mentioned in the weekly view 4. Weekly View - Crude oil prices were affected by the Iran situation, with monthly spreads and North Sea Brent basis declining. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations were held, and the second round is expected. Netanyahu will discuss the Iran issue with Trump. Iran doesn't want a regional war. Global oil inventories decreased, and Saudi Arabia adjusted oil prices. Singapore, ARA, and domestic inventories had different trends. Short - term oil prices are affected by the Iran situation, and the first - and second - quarter fundamentals are in surplus [5]

美国自2025年12月底起通过海上封锁、航线特许、托管账户设立及许可证制度，掌控委内瑞拉石油主导 权。2026年1月29日，委内瑞拉全国代表大会二读通过油气改革法案，向私人资本全面开放石油产业， 以法律形式固化外资权益。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 在美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗并与委代总统罗德里格斯达成供应协议后，多家美国公司获得委内瑞拉 石油销售许可，相关石油多流入美国市场，但目前出现滞销状况。 据参考消息报道，当地时间2月4日交易商及航运数据显示，自上月美委达成20亿美元供应协议以来，委 对美原油运输量激增，墨西哥湾沿岸炼油厂难以消化。上月委对美石油出口总量环比增长近三倍，达每 日28.4万桶。美国炼油商面临供大于求的困境，不愿采购委原油。部分炼油商表示，尽管委原油价格已 下调，但仍高于加拿大重质原油；同时，美国炼油厂需调整部分设施才能加工重质原油，恢复最大产能 尚需时日。 美国授予维多石油公司、托克集团及雪佛龙出口委石油的许可。今年1月雪佛龙派出15艘油轮赴委运 输，目前租用的多艘油轮正在美港口等待卸货或减速航行，不过相关货物已在启航前售出 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | ोंगे | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | हि | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 436.60 | -2.17 | 45734 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 59.36 | -2.08 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 63.34 | -1.84 | 583609 | | | ਜਿੰ | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 1.8383 | -2.19 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 663.50 | -1.78 | 242360 | | 【1】WTI主力原油期货收跌1.26美元，跌幅2.08%，报59.36美元/桶；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.19美 元，跌幅1.84%，报63.34美元/桶；INE原油期货收跌2.17%，报436.6元。 【2】美元指数跌幅0.49%，报98.29；港交所美元兑人民币涨幅0.04%，报 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices continued to rise due to extreme cold weather, which led to a significant spike in natural gas prices, with a daily increase of 30% and a cumulative rise of over 60% in two days. This cold weather also boosted demand for heating, resulting in a two-month high for diesel prices in Europe and the US, which in turn supported a rebound in crude oil prices [3][20]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a notable oversupply pressure in the oil market, adjusting the 2026 oil demand growth forecast upward by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, compared to last year's growth of 850,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply growth forecast was also revised to 2.5 million barrels per day from the previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day [4][23]. - IEA emphasized that the large inventory levels are suppressing oil price increases and stated that it is currently unable to fully assess the impact of recent geopolitical developments on the oil market [4][23]. Group 2 - The IEA's report indicated that ample global oil supply is alleviating concerns regarding geopolitical risks associated with oil production and exports from Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. The report noted that while the geopolitical dynamics' impact on the oil market is not fully understood, the current inventory levels provide some comfort to market participants [7][23]. - The Middle Eastern benchmark crude, Murban, has seen a rise for three consecutive trading days, supported by strong demand from Asian buyers seeking alternatives to US supplies. Indian refiners are also using Murban crude to replace Russian oil, which has bolstered the price of this flagship light sour crude from the UAE [8][24]. - The state-owned Indian Oil Corporation has awarded a one-year procurement tender for Iraqi and Omani crude oil and is seeking to purchase Murban crude from the UAE through another tender [10][25].

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will increase by an average of 930,000 barrels per day by 2026, up from the previous forecast of 860,000 barrels per day [1] - The growth in global oil demand will be entirely driven by non-OECD countries [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply is expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day by 2026 [1] - In January, geopolitical factors, including the situations in Iran and Venezuela, caused benchmark crude oil prices to rise by $6 per barrel, but prices began to decline mid-month as tensions eased [1] - The global economy is adapting to the impacts of U.S. tariffs imposed in 2025, and lower oil prices compared to the same period last year are contributing to increased global oil demand [1] - It is anticipated that global oil supply will exceed demand by an average of 3.69 million barrels per day this year, slightly narrowing from previous reports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil, aiming to bring in cheap crude to control rising domestic energy prices, but this strategy is pressuring local oil companies and may lead to a decline in U.S. oil production by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Oil Industry - The U.S. shale oil industry, particularly in Midland, Texas, is facing significant challenges due to falling oil prices, which have dropped below $60 per barrel, leading to layoffs and reduced drilling activity [2][4]. - The number of drilling rigs in the Permian Basin has decreased by approximately 14% over the past year, with major producers like Chevron and ExxonMobil planning to cut thousands of jobs by 2025 [2][4]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a 1% reduction in U.S. oil production this year due to inventory buildup and declining drilling activities [5]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Implications - The Trump administration's push to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel is exacerbating the situation for smaller U.S. shale operators, who are experiencing shrinking profit margins [4][5]. - Rising internal costs due to tariffs on essential materials for the oil industry are further complicating the operational landscape for U.S. oil producers [5]. - If oil prices remain below $60 per barrel, economic contraction could occur, leading to the closure of more drilling platforms and increased unemployment in oil-dependent regions like Texas [5]. Group 3: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The increase in Venezuelan oil supply, while beneficial for U.S. consumers, contributes to a global oversupply situation, putting additional pressure on U.S. oil prices [4]. - Analysts predict that geopolitical tensions, such as concerns over Iran, may temporarily affect oil supply but are unlikely to have a long-term impact on actual production levels [6]. - The potential recovery of Venezuelan oil production, previously curtailed by U.S. sanctions, could further suppress oil prices in the global market [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term long diesel cracking, medium - term short position allocation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oil prices are still trading around the possibility of Trump's military action against Iran. Since the US won't gain direct benefits from a military strike on Iran and the implementation is difficult, and neighboring countries are preventing such an action. If the situation in Iran remains unchanged, oil prices are expected to cool down soon [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI February crude oil futures rose 1.42% to $62.02 per barrel, Brent March crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $66.52 per barrel, and SC crude oil futures rose 1.80% to 457 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's crude oil production decreased slightly in 2025. The daily output decreased by about 0.7% year - on - year to 9.129 million barrels. In December 2025, the production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 9.304 million barrels per day. The international oil price dropped by more than 18% in 2025 [1] - Iran's oil exports achieved "record growth" in the past 14 months, and external pressures such as tariffs and sanctions have no substantial impact on its oil exports [1] - After the US began seizing ships involved in Venezuelan oil trade, at least 26 ships changed their registration to Russia since early last month. About 13% of nearly 1,500 tankers transporting oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are now registered in Russia [1] Investment Logic - Oil prices fluctuated greatly yesterday. After Trump's statement to wait and see the situation in Iran but not rule out military options, oil prices dropped by more than 3%. Military action against Iran is difficult for the US and may lead to instability in the Middle East [2] Strategy - Short - term oil price drivers are strong. Short - term long diesel cracking, medium - term short position allocation [3] Risk - Downward risks: OPEC significantly increases production, macro black - swan events [3] - Upward risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]