Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the four-year cryptocurrency cycle is considered dead by Arthur Hayes, but not for the reasons most people think [2] - Hayes argues that Bitcoin price cycles are driven by money supply and quantity, primarily influenced by the US dollar and Chinese yuan, rather than arbitrary four-year patterns or institutional interest [2] - Historical cycles ended due to tightening monetary conditions rather than time factors, indicating a shift in the current cycle's dynamics [2][4] Group 2 - The current cycle is different due to the US Treasury injecting $2.5 trillion into the market through increased bond issuance and a push for looser monetary policy to stimulate growth [2] - The Federal Reserve has resumed interest rate cuts despite high inflation, with a 94% probability of a cut in October and 80% in December [3] - Previous Bitcoin bull markets were closely tied to quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and credit expansion in China, with downturns occurring when these conditions tightened [4][5] Group 3 - Hayes notes that while China may not drive this cycle as in the past, policymakers are shifting towards ending deflation rather than withdrawing liquidity, which could support Bitcoin's rise [6] - The transition from deflationary resistance to at least neutral or mildly supportive monetary policy removes major obstacles that could stifle the cycle, allowing US monetary expansion to boost Bitcoin prices [6] - On-chain analysis from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's price movements still reflect previous cyclical patterns, suggesting some continuity in market behavior [8]