BitMEX联合创始人Arthur Hayes同意四年加密货币周期已死，但原因并非大多数人所认为的那样。 Hayes在周四的博客文章中表示："随着第四个周期的四年周年纪念日临近，交易者希望应用历史模式并预测这轮牛市的结束。" 他补充说，虽然四年模式在过去有效，但现在不再适用，"这次将会失效"。 Hayes认为，比特币价格周期是由货币供应量和数量驱动的，主要是美元和人民币，而不是与减半事件相关的任意四年模式，也不是机构对加密货币兴趣的 直接结果。 Hayes表示，过去的周期在货币条件收紧时结束，而不是因为时间因素。 Hayes认为这个周期有所不同，原因包括美国财政部通过发行更多国债从美联储逆回购计划中向市场投放2.5万亿美元，以及特朗普总统希望通过更宽松的货 币政策"全力运行"以增长摆脱债务。 还有放松银行监管以增加放贷的计划。 此外，美国央行尽管通胀高于目标，但已恢复降息。据芝商所期货市场显示，预计今年还有两次降息，10月降息概率为94%，12月再次降息概率为80%。 比特币的第一轮牛市与美联储量化宽松和中国信贷扩张同步，在2013年底美联储和中国央行都放缓货币印刷时结束。 第二个"ICO周期"主要由2015 ...

8月份贷款与垫款总额下跌0.4%，由年初截至8月底计则上升1.0%。其中在香港使用的贷款(包括贸易融 资)及香港境外使用的贷款在8月份分别下跌0.1%及1.3%。由于港元存款的跌幅较港元贷款的跌幅大，港 元贷存比率由7月底的73.1%，上升至8月底的74.6%。 统计数字显示，认可机构的存款总额在2025年8月份上升0.9%，其中港元存款下跌2.1%，外币存款则上 升3.3%，主要反映企业资金流动。由年初截至8月底计，存款总额及港元存款分别上升8.7%及2.6%。香 港人民币存款在8月份上升3.2%，于8月底为9,680亿元人民币，主要反映企业资金流动。跨境贸易结算 的人民币汇款总额于8月份为9,969亿元人民币，而7月份为12,333亿元人民币。存款变动受多项因素影 响，包括利率走势、市场集资活动等，因此适宜观察较长期趋势，毋须过度解读个别月份的波动。 智通财经APP获悉，9月30日，据香港金融管理局披露，8月份港元货币供应量M2及M3同时下跌1.9%， 与去年同期比较则均上升4.0%。8月份经季节因素调整的港元货币供应量M1下跌2.9%，与去年同期比 较则上升16.1%，部分反映投资相关活动。货币供应量总 ...

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In August, the growth rate of RMB loans decreased to 6.8% from the previous 6.9%[1] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 9.0% previously, ending an upward trend[1] - Government bonds contributed approximately 1.30 percentage points to the increase in social financing, while RMB loans had a negative contribution of about -0.32 percentage points[1] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Market Impact - M1 growth rose to 6.0%, while M2 remained stable at 8.8%, narrowing the gap between M1 and M2 growth rates to -2.8%[2] - Household deposits continued to shift towards non-bank financial institutions, with household deposit growth declining[2] - The impact of monetary flow on capital markets is influenced by various factors, including employment expectations and asset price forecasts[3] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential risk of changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations could impact the market[4] - The effectiveness and timing of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets will be crucial for future loan growth[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, financial data showed that fiscal policy continued to exert force in advance, the total financing volume increased, and corporate financing improved, but the recovery foundation of real - sector financing demand was still weak and needed to be consolidated. Future credit demand depends on the progress of fiscal expenditures such as ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and the effect of the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in the real estate market. - For the bond market, the data reflected the overall weakness of real - sector financing demand, which should have supported the bond market. However, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment that month. In a pessimistic sentiment, the market interpreted the structural improvement of the data relatively positively. Looking ahead, with the weak endogenous economic momentum, the central bank's monetary policy will remain moderately loose, and the bond market does not have the basis for a long - term sharp decline. [1][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 8 - month Social Financing Data Analysis - **Overall Social Financing Scale**: The stock of social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. The cumulative increment of social financing scale in the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In August, the increment of social financing scale was 2.57 trillion yuan, 1.44 trillion yuan more than the previous month, indicating a recovery in financing demand after the low point in July, but still 463 billion yuan less than the same period last year. [5] - **Financing Structure**: - **Government Bonds**: Net financing of government bonds was 1.37 trillion yuan, still the core support. However, affected by the high base last year, the year - on - year contribution decreased marginally (a decrease of 251.9 billion yuan), ending the previous consecutive over - increase trend. - **Loans to the Real Economy**: RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 623.3 billion yuan, 417.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating that real - sector financing demand still needed further boosting. - **Direct Financing**: Bond net financing was 134.3 billion yuan, 36 billion yuan less than the same period last year; stock financing was 45.7 billion yuan, 32.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which was in line with the current situation of a strong stock market and a weak bond market. - **Off - balance - sheet Bill Financing**: It was relatively active. The monthly new increase was 215.8 billion yuan, nearly 100 billion yuan more than the same period last year; the new increase in undiscounted bank acceptance bills was 197.4 billion yuan, 132.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, which to some extent replaced part of the on - balance - sheet bill demand. [5] Money Supply - The balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the same as the previous month; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0%, 0.4 percentage points faster than the previous month. The M2 - M1 gap further narrowed to 2.8 percentage points, the lowest since June 2021, indicating an increase in the activation degree of funds. [11] RMB Loans - In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan. The intensity of credit delivery increased compared with July, with a month - on - month increase of 640 billion yuan, but still 310 billion yuan less than the same period last year. - **Corporate Loans**: The structure of corporate loans improved. Medium - and long - term loans increased by 470 billion yuan, basically close to the level of the same period last year. Short - term loans increased by 70 billion yuan, 260 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 492 billion yuan year - on - year, indicating a reduction in bill - padding by banks and relatively optimized credit quality. - **Resident Loans**: Resident loans were still weak. Short - term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, 61.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 20 billion yuan, 100 billion yuan less than the same period last year, reflecting that the overall momentum of consumption and housing purchase demand was not strong. [16]

Group 1 - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The cash in circulation (M0) was 13.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] Group 2 - The total social financing increment for the first eight months was 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 4.85 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - Net financing from government bonds was 10.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3 - By the end of August, the total social financing stock was 433.66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 265.42 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [3] - The balance of government bonds increased by 21.1% year-on-year, reaching 91.36 trillion yuan [3] Group 4 - The balance of RMB loans as of the end of August was 269.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [4] - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 711 billion yuan [4] - Loans to enterprises increased by 12.22 trillion yuan during the same period [4] Group 5 - The balance of RMB deposits reached 322.73 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6% [5] - In the first eight months, RMB deposits increased by 20.5 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.77 trillion yuan [5] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 610.6 billion yuan during this period [5] Group 6 - The weighted average interbank lending rate in August was 1.4%, down 0.37 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The weighted average rate for pledged repos was 1.41%, which is 0.38 percentage points lower year-on-year [6] Group 7 - The one-year loan market quoted rate was 3.00% as of August 20, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of last year [7] - The quoted rate for loans over five years was 3.50%, also down 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 8 - As of the end of August, the RMB exchange rate index fell by 4.83% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1030, appreciating by 1.20% year-on-year [8] - The RMB to Euro exchange rate depreciated by 9.34% compared to the end of last year [8]

宏观周周谈：近期经济数据有何亮点？20250914 摘要 8 月社融增速小幅回落至 18.8%，表明宏观流动性拐点已现，利好债市。 信贷新增同比减少，政府债发行节奏前置是主因，间接融资增长乏力制 约社融增长。 2025 年 8 月中国出口同比增长 3%，进口同比下降 1%，受全球需求疲 软和中美贸易摩擦影响。CPI 同比上涨 2.3%，PPI 同比下降 1.6%，反 映消费端与生产端存在结构性问题。 美国就业市场稳健，失业率维持在 3.9%，但劳动参与率略有下降。通 胀压力持续，CPI 同比上涨 4%，核心 CPI 上涨 3.6%。市场预期美联储 将连续降息以应对经济放缓和高通胀。 8 月短期贷款显著增长，与企业生产经营意愿改善有关。制造业 PMI 采 购量指数和原材料购进价格指数回升，企业融资环境指数也环比回升。 8 月票据市场承兑和贴现额同比增长，但票据融资规模减少。票据利率 震荡下行，反映银行以票冲贷动力减弱，低利率也影响贴现意愿。 8 月 M2 增速持平，M1 增速攀升至 6.0%，M1 与 M2 剪刀差修复，表 明资金流动性增强，有助于经济活动恢复。债券市场自 8 月以来普遍上 行，与社融增速拐点背 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in August, new RMB loans increased by approximately 590 billion yuan, indicating strong support for the real economy and a need for future monetary policy to focus on structural optimization [1][2][5]. Group 1: Credit Growth - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by a total of 13.46 trillion yuan, with August alone contributing about 590 billion yuan, resulting in a year-on-year growth of 6.8% in loan balances [2][5]. - The growth in credit is supported by factors such as industry recovery, resilient exports, summer consumption peaks, and real estate support policies [2][3]. - Corporate loans in August increased by approximately 590 billion yuan, with a significant portion benefiting from improved production conditions [2][4]. Group 2: Monetary Supply and Structure - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 331.98 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) reached 111.23 trillion yuan, growing by 6% [5][6]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 2.8%, the lowest level since June 2021, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits that can support consumption and investment [6][7]. - The government bond net financing scale reached 10.27 trillion yuan in the first eight months, which is 4.63 trillion yuan more than the previous year, contributing positively to the social financing growth [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Experts suggest that future monetary policy should focus on optimizing the structure of financial support rather than merely increasing the total volume [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to enhance financial institutions' ability and willingness to support key sectors, while also coordinating with fiscal measures to improve effectiveness [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority reported a decline in the money supply in July, with M2 and M3 both down by 1.8% month-on-month, but up by 6.2% year-on-year [1] - The seasonally adjusted M1 money supply decreased by 2.3% in July, while it increased by 18.5% compared to the same month last year, reflecting investment-related activities [1] - Total deposits from recognized institutions rose by 0.2% in July, with Hong Kong dollar deposits down by 2.0% and foreign currency deposits up by 1.9%, indicating corporate fund flows [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances decreased by 1.1% in July, but increased by 1.3% year-to-date [2] - Loans used in Hong Kong and those used outside Hong Kong fell by 1.0% and 1.7% respectively in July [2] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for Hong Kong dollars increased from 72.0% at the end of June to 73.1% at the end of July, as the decline in Hong Kong dollar deposits was greater than that of loans [2]

Group 1 - The total deposits of authorized institutions in Hong Kong increased by 0.2% in July 2025, with HKD deposits decreasing by 2.0% and foreign currency deposits rising by 1.9%, reflecting corporate fund flows [1] - As of the end of July, RMB deposits in Hong Kong rose by 6.4% to 938.2 billion RMB, primarily due to corporate fund flows [1] - The total amount of cross-border trade settlement in RMB for July was 1,244.3 billion RMB, up from 1,223.5 billion RMB in June [1] Group 2 - The total amount of loans and advances decreased by 1.1% in July, but increased by 1.3% year-to-date as of the end of July [1] - The loan-to-deposit ratio for HKD increased from 72.0% at the end of June to 73.1% at the end of July due to a larger decline in HKD deposits compared to HKD loans [1] - The M2 and M3 money supply in HKD both decreased by 1.8% in July, while year-on-year comparisons showed increases of 6.2% [2] Group 3 - Seasonally adjusted M1 money supply in HKD fell by 2.3% in July, but increased by 18.5% compared to the same month last year, reflecting investment-related activities [2] - The total money supply (M2 and M3) increased by 0.1% in July, with year-on-year increases of 10.8% for both M2 and M3 [2] - Monthly monetary statistics may be influenced by various short-term factors, such as seasonal funding demands and business-related activities, necessitating careful interpretation of the data [2]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the second quarter of 2025, aiming to align monetary supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank plans to ensure ample liquidity in the financial system to support economic activities [1] - The focus will be on matching the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is highlighted as a key consideration in monetary policy [1]