Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a cautious trading atmosphere with significant divergence in major currency pairs, focusing on key economic data releases and central bank speeches [1][2]. Currency Analysis - **US Dollar Index**: Currently trading around 98.36, the index recorded its largest single-day drop since September after the Federal Reserve's "hawkish rate cut." The market sentiment has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "rate cut path," with key support at 98.29-98.52 and potential downside targets at 96.22 if this support is breached [3]. - **GBP/USD**: Trading around 1.3390, the pair shows a strong upward trend supported by the 10-day moving average and market expectations of a Fed rate cut. Key support is at 1.3360, with resistance at 1.3440, and potential volatility expected from upcoming UK GDP data [4]. - **EUR/USD**: Currently at 1.1735, the pair has shown slight recovery after a minor pullback. The market remains cautious due to diverging policies between the ECB and the Fed, with support at 1.1720-1.1730 and resistance at 1.1770-1.1780 [5]. - **USD/JPY**: Trading around 155.68, the pair is in a downtrend after failing to maintain levels above 156.00. Key support is at 155.30, with resistance at 155.90. The divergence in monetary policy continues to influence the exchange rate [6]. Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and Canadian wholesale sales data, which may impact market sentiment and currency movements [8]. Additional Market Insights - The Swiss National Bank has maintained interest rates at zero, while other geopolitical developments, such as discussions between Modi and Trump, and the U.S. House's decision on Trump's impeachment, may also influence market dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The mid-term outlook for the US dollar has significantly deteriorated following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a technical shift towards a bearish trend [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the Fed's decision, the dollar index experienced its largest single-day drop since September, closing below the critical level of 98.799 [1] - The dollar index's decline is attributed to the Fed's forward guidance, which did not meet some investors' hawkish expectations, preventing the dollar from recovering most of its losses [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical analysis indicates an increasing probability of the dollar index testing the lower range of the daily cloud chart between 98.292 and 99.201 [1] - The 14-day momentum indicator is in negative territory, reinforcing the current bearish outlook [1] - A breach below the cloud's lower boundary could open up further downside potential for the dollar index [1] Group 3: Market Logic - The primary narrative in dollar trading has shifted from "end of rate hikes" to "path towards rate cuts" [1] - The Fed has signaled an openness to further rate cuts, which diminishes the dollar's interest rate differential advantage and triggers significant technical selling [1] Group 4: Future Focus - Market attention will be on whether the dollar index can find effective support at the cloud's lower boundary [1] - If this support level is breached, the dollar index may enter a deeper correction, targeting the September low of 96.224 [1] - Upcoming US economic data releases will be closely monitored to assess the Fed's rate cut pace and potential [1]