Report Information - Report Date: March 2, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Product Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The three major oils are in a fierce game between "strong expectations and weak reality." The biofuel blending volume authorization proposal may be finalized before the end of March. The US biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B35 policy provide long - term demand support and price bottom for the oil and fat sector. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset before the final US biodiesel policy is released, but be vigilant against the callback risk of "buy on expectation, sell on fact" [6]. - For palm oil, pay attention to whether the export data brought by Ramadan stocking can trigger a market rebound. Later, the main palm oil producing areas will gradually enter the seasonal production - increasing cycle, which will suppress the market again. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the upcoming results of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and whether there will be adjustments to the additional tariffs on rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. Recently, the overall trend of the oil and fat market is unclear, but the volatility may increase significantly [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - From February 1 - 25, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 16.25% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data. The fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit decreased by 17.78% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) increased by 0.1% month - on - month [8]. - From February 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 12.29% month - on - month according to MPOA data. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 10.74% month - on - month, the production in Sabah decreased by 15.23% month - on - month, the production in Sarawak decreased by 11.20% month - on - month, and the production in East Malaysia decreased by 14.19% month - on - month [8]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - South China rapeseed oil: From June to September, the price of No. 3 rapeseed oil is 09 + 250, and the price of No. 1 rapeseed oil is 09 + 450. In the East China market, the basis price of soybean oil: For No. 1 soybean oil, the spot price is Y05 + 350; the far - month price is 05 + 350 (March), 05 + 230 (May - July), 09 + 260 (June - September); for No. 3 soybean oil, it is 05 + 320; for degummed soybean oil, it is 05 + 120 from March to May. The palm oil quotes of Dongguan traders are stable with a downward trend: Guangzhou Yihai's 18 - degree palm oil is 05 + 150; the 24 - degree palm oil of various factories in Dongguan is 05 - 40; the national standard 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 05 + 0; the 52 - degree palm oil of various factories in Dongguan is 05 - 200; the 33 - degree palm oil of various factories in Dongguan is 05 + 20 [6]. - There are multiple data charts including the spot price of South China 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, East China No. 3 rapeseed oil spot price, East China No. 4 soybean oil spot price, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][21][23][29][30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2280 - 2340. It is currently in an oscillatory state, influenced by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak demand season for rapeseed meal has passed, the low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend will maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations, with a slight change in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has slightly widened. The arrival of imported rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are both at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [18][20][23]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight. The demand side is gradually decreasing, which suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the China - Canada trade issue has reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply is expected to decrease. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. The global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability that China and Canada will reach a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff battle on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The report provides the trading average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 1st to 9th, as well as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It also shows the prices of rapeseed meal futures (near - month 2601 and main 2605) and the spot price in Fujian during the same period [13][15]. - **Inventory data**: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from 2.2 tons last year [9]. - **Aquaculture data**: The price of aquatic fish has slightly decreased, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [9].