交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-12-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2340至2400区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2560，基差173，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存0吨，上周0吨，周环比持平，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少100%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 6. ...

2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2300至2360区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求进入淡季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2510，基差170，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 近期要闻： 1.国内水产养殖进入长假后淡季，现货市场供应短期进入偏紧预期，需 求端逐渐减少压制盘面预期，加拿大油菜籽进入收割阶段，但中加贸易问题 影响短期出口减少国内供应预期。 2.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查初步裁定成立，并开始征收进口 保证金75.8%，一旦最终裁定成立，保证金将作为加征关税不予退还，但是 未来裁定结果尚有变数，等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产，主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2480 and 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short - term, it will enter a pattern of strong oscillation, affected by the possible variables in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. - The current market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2 Recent Highlights - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, with good expectations on the demand side [11]. - China has preliminarily ruled that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established and has started to levy an import deposit of 75.8%. The final ruling result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the variable final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: Rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the spot price has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has oscillated weakly [17][19]. - **Supply - related Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in August was lower than expected, with a slight fluctuation in import cost. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseeds has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has decreased slightly. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume has decreased slightly [22][24][26]. - **Aquaculture Data**: Aquatic fish prices have fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 5 Position Data No relevant content provided. ✸ Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has rebounded, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical oscillations. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short - term, and low inventory supports the market, but demand will enter the off - season after the National Day, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still variable [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2580, with a basis of 59, indicating a premium over the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 21,000 tons, a 17.65% week - on - week decrease from 25,500 tons last week and a 25% year - on - year decrease from 28,000 tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - **Main Position**: Net short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed out [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short - term due to the variable final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, entering a pattern of strong oscillation [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, domestic aquaculture demand, and supply changes. In the short term, it shows a volatile and slightly bullish pattern. The RM2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The rapeseed meal market is affected by profit - taking and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, the arrival of imported rapeseed has increased slightly in August, and the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good outlook. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the relatively low inventory pressure of oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in inventory, production, and consumption over the years [23][24]. - **Price data**: The trading average price, trading volume, and price difference of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 6 - 15 are presented, as well as the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices during the same period [12][14]. - **Inventory data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.52% and a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. The arrival of imported rapeseed in August is lower than expected, and the inventory of oil mills has returned to a low level while rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level [8][25][27]. - **Production data**: The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, as well as the OECD's forecast of Chinese fish production and imports are mentioned. Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp - shellfish prices remain stable [31][33][35]. 3.5 Position Data The main short positions in rapeseed meal have decreased, and funds have flowed in [8].