Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Recent trial feedback for Glo Hilo in Sendai, Japan has been positive, indicating that improvements in HNB product experience and faster conversion of smokers will drive industry growth, benefiting the company through its partnership with British American Tobacco [2] - The price increase of Glo Hilo's cartridges reflects confidence in product strength, with the new cartridge priced at 580 JPY (approximately 4 USD), a more than 30% increase from the previous model [3] - British American Tobacco is expected to invest significantly in Hilo, aiming for new tobacco revenue to reach 50% by 2035, up from the current 13%, highlighting the importance of HNB products for the company's future [4] Summary by Sections Recent Catalysts and Core Viewpoints - Glo Hilo's trial in Japan has shown promising results, suggesting a potential acceleration in industry growth due to enhanced product experiences [2] - The price increase of Hilo cartridges indicates strong product confidence and potential for higher returns for the company [3] - British American Tobacco's commitment to HNB products is expected to increase, with significant resources allocated to Hilo [4] Market Dynamics - The HNB market is evolving, with improved product experiences leading to higher conversion rates among traditional smokers [8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with major players like Philip Morris, Japan Tobacco, and British American Tobacco sharing market shares more evenly [9] Regulatory Environment and Business Potential - The company is poised to benefit from stricter regulations on vaping products in Europe and North America, which may lead to increased demand for compliant products [10] - The medical business segment is expected to gain importance, with significant investments in research and development for HNB and medical aerosol products [11] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 128.9 billion, 153.1 billion, and 183.5 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 19%, and 20% respectively [12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 13.2 billion, 20.0 billion, and 27.3 billion for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 2%, 51%, and 36% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the successful path of IQOS by Philip Morris International, emphasizing the importance of product strength, marketing, and channel strategies in establishing a brand value proposition that resonates with consumers [3]. Market Overview - The global HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is entering a new product lifecycle phase, with major brands actively participating in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry scale expansion [3]. - In Japan, HNB products have a high penetration rate, with projections indicating that by 2024, the penetration rate will exceed 40%, and in key cities like Tokyo, it may surpass 50% [3]. Strategic Review - **Product Strategy**: Philip Morris has focused on the IQOS product line, investing heavily in R&D and patent protection to maintain a technological edge in heating technology, ensuring stable taste and ease of cleaning as core advantages [4]. - **Marketing Approach**: The company leverages its strong brand management capabilities, creating a brand identity centered around user experience and lifestyle, enhancing consumer engagement throughout the product lifecycle [4]. - **Flavor Development**: Initially targeting traditional tobacco products, the company has continuously iterated its product offerings to enhance consumer loyalty and repeat purchases, aligning with the brand's message of "beyond tobacco" [4]. - **Channel Strategy**: Emphasis is placed on immersive in-store experiences to strengthen brand visibility and consumer engagement, supported by a robust online and offline distribution network [4]. Regional Insights - The regulatory environment in Japan is favorable for HNB products, contrasting with the more fragmented and competitive landscape in Europe, where e-cigarettes face less stringent regulations [4].