Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the domestic thermal coal price has rebounded this week. As of September 17, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 689 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase. After the "anti-involution" production capacity verification, the supply of thermal coal in China has gradually stabilized, and the pressure on the supply side has been significantly alleviated compared with the previous two years. Coupled with the good fundamentals of thermal coal before the National Day, it is expected that the coal price will remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation", and the core logic is that the supply - demand expectation is good, and the coal price is expected to run strongly before the festival [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - The reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic thermal coal price has rebounded this week. After the "anti - involution" production capacity verification, the supply has gradually stabilized, and the supply - side pressure has been alleviated. With the good fundamentals before the National Day, the short - term coal price is expected to be strong [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry in China is characterized by high concentration in production, with Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang accounting for over 80% of total output. New capacity is strictly controlled by policy, leading to weak capital expenditure willingness [2][7][8] - China is the largest coal producer and consumer globally, influencing international market prices significantly [5] Supply Dynamics - Domestic coal production is expected to remain stable, with an estimated total supply of approximately 4.4 billion tons in 2024, including around 4 billion tons from domestic production and 420 million tons from imports [11] - Xinjiang plays a crucial role as a marginal supplier due to its significant resource reserves, but high transportation costs limit its contribution to the national market [9][10] - The overall coal supply is projected to decline slightly, with new capacity primarily compensating for the retirement of outdated mines [8][11] Demand Trends - The demand for thermal coal is primarily driven by the power sector, which accounts for over 60% of consumption. The growth of renewable energy has a substitutive effect on thermal power demand [2][13] - Non-power sectors such as metallurgy and construction show stable or declining demand, while chemical coal demand has increased to about 7% and is expected to grow further due to large coal chemical projects [4][16][17] Price Mechanism - Thermal coal prices are influenced by inventory levels and government policies, with a long-term contract price mechanism stabilizing the market. The benchmark price is set at 675 RMB/ton, with fluctuations between 575 and 775 RMB [4][18][19] - The price for 2025 is expected to have a low point around 600 RMB and a high point near 750 RMB, with future price peaks projected to remain below 800 RMB [20][22] Profitability of Coal Enterprises - Profitability for coal companies is primarily determined by coal prices and costs. Major players like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry maintain strong profitability due to favorable resource endowments [22][23] - Investment logic in the current market emphasizes stability in dividends, with leading companies offering dividend yields of over 4.5% [23] Future Outlook - The coal power sector is expected to see growth rates around zero in 2025 and 2026, with a recovery anticipated starting in 2027, potentially exceeding 1.5% growth [14] - The overall trend for coal supply is expected to stabilize or slightly decline, with significant policy impacts on production and pricing [11][12][20] Additional Insights - The long-term contract price mechanism has been established to ensure profitability for downstream power companies, requiring over 80% of resource volumes to be contracted [19] - The impact of international natural gas prices on domestic coal prices is noted, as fluctuations in gas prices can influence coal pricing through import dynamics [21]