中国是全球最大的煤炭生产和消费国，生产和消费量均占全球总量的 50%以上。 因此，中国对全球煤炭价格有着重要影响，并且国内定价在很大程度上决定了 国际市场价格。 动力煤分析框架 摘要 中国是全球最大的煤炭生产和消费国，其国内定价对国际市场价格有重 要影响。动力煤供给端集中度高，内蒙古、山西、陕西、新疆四省份合 计产量占比超 80%，且新增产能受政策严格控制，资本支出意愿较弱。 未来几年国内动力煤产量预计保持平稳，2025-2026 年增速或低于 1- 2%。新疆作为边际供应来源，受运输成本制约，煤价低于 650 元/吨时 外运经济性差，对价格形成支撑。整体煤炭供给将稳中有降，2024 年 预计总供给量约为 44 亿吨。 我国动力煤进口政策随供需关系变化调整，进口量占比约 10%，印尼是 最大进口国。今年初印尼挺价政策导致出口量下降，4 月起海外煤炭经 济性降低，进口同比下滑，但近期价格回涨至 700 元/吨左右，预计后 续环比略增。 动力煤需求主要来自电力行业，占比超 60%。新能源发展对火电需求产 生替代效应，但新政可能导致明年光伏装机量下降，从而减弱对火电的 冲击。预计 2025-2026 年煤电行业增速 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that thermal coal will maintain a relatively strong performance in the near term, with the fundamental and news - related positives during the peak season driving up coal prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Outlook - The intraday and mid - term reference view for thermal coal spot is "oscillation", and it is expected to run strongly in the near future [4]. 3.2 Supply Analysis - In the Lvliang Zhongyang area, environmental inspections are strict. On July 18, an individual coal mine stopped production due to gangue disposal issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction due to underground production problems. In the future, thermal coal may shift from a supply - surplus situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis - As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.148 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 95,000 tons. There is good support for thermal coal demand during the peak season, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.985 million tons, with a slight weekly de - stocking of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year and is at a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal stocks [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", and it is expected to run strongly due to the resonance of fundamental and news - related factors [1][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Price and Market View - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation", with the core logic being the resonance of fundamentals and news driving the strong operation of thermal coal [1][4] Driving Logic of Price Quotes - **Supply**: In the Lvliang Zhongyang area, environmental inspections are strict. One coal mine stopped production on July 18 due to gangue treatment issues, and three other mines are still in a state of shutdown or production reduction. In the future, under the premise of ensuring energy supply security, thermal coal may transition from an oversupply situation to a balanced supply - demand pattern [4] - **Demand**: As of July 10, the daily coal consumption of power plants in 8 coastal provinces was 2.148 million tons, a weekly increase of 61,000 tons; that of power plants in 17 inland provinces was 3.551 million tons, a weekly decrease of 95,000 tons. There is good support for thermal coal demand during the peak season, and the atmosphere at the mine mouth is improving [4] - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.6985 billion tons, with a slight weekly de - stocking of 34,000 tons. The inventory is 1.151 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a five - year high, indicating sufficient coal storage [4]