Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of steel has improved, and steel prices will follow raw materials. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, steel supply - demand is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and the de - stocking situation in the peak season and raw material price changes should be monitored later [1]. - Iron ore prices will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. As steel mills resume production, iron ore supply and demand contradictions have not further intensified, and high inventory will continue to suppress price performance in the long term. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and prices will run in a volatile manner. After the Two Sessions, coal mine production has gradually resumed, and the supply of coking coal has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The impact of the Middle East situation on coal prices should be noted later [5][6]. - The supply - demand of thermal coal has weakened, and coal prices are under short - term pressure. Coal supply has increased after the Two Sessions, while consumption has weakened due to seasonality. The impact of non - power coal consumption and restocking should be focused on later [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures prices fluctuated, and domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. The trading volume of construction steel rebounded, with 10130 tons of national building materials traded. Due to the early implementation of fiscal policies, infrastructure and manufacturing investment improved from January to February [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. With the arrival of the peak season, supply - demand is expected to improve, but inventory pressure restricts price increases. The Middle East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices. Steel prices will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, with a total of 30.49 million tons, a 5.2% month - on - month increase. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly, with a total of 22.15 million tons, a 15.1% month - on - month decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week. High ore prices have continuously stimulated supply, but the actual supply pressure has eased. As steel mills end production restrictions, hot metal output will increase. The supply - demand contradiction has not further intensified in the short term, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices in the long term [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The price of raw coal in the production area was relatively stable, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was about 1100 yuan/ton, showing a month - on - month increase. The cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, and coking profits were acceptable due to the rebound of chemical product prices [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area gradually resumed production, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The overall supply of coking coal increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. Prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of thermal coal in the main production areas fluctuated weakly, and the port price showed a downward trend. Coal supply in the production area increased steadily, and some terminal restocking demand was released. Port inventory continued to increase, while downstream demand was weak due to the approaching off - season. The import cost increased, and the price difference between domestic and foreign trade widened [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coal supply increased after the Two Sessions, while consumption weakened due to seasonality. Coal prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The impact of non - power coal consumption and restocking should be focused on later [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for thermal coal are favorable, leading to an expected continued rise in coal prices at production sites [1] Group 1: Supply Factors - Recent rainfall and maintenance on the Daqin Railway have restricted coal production and transportation in major production areas, resulting in a slight tightening of coal supply [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - As northern regions enter the heating season, the demand from non-electric industries such as chemicals and metallurgy is gradually increasing due to the arrival of peak season, leading to heightened market activity and bullish sentiment [1] - The overall coal prices at production sites are expected to remain strong due to the increased purchasing demand from downstream sectors [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal: Sideways to Weak [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy [8] Group 2: Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, and the black market is oscillating weakly. The macro - expectation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. Iron ore market sentiment is cautious, and ore prices are oscillating. Coking coal and coke prices are showing different trends, with coking coal being sideways to weak and coke being sideways. Thermal coal port inventory is continuously accumulating, and pit - mouth coal prices are weakly operating [1][3][5][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3207 yuan/ton. The futures market trading was average, and the spot market overall transaction was generally weak, with steel prices continuously falling [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good long - process profits, the building materials output remained stable. With the arrival of the main flood season in the southern region, building materials consumption will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Exports were resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, but high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports [1] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated weakly. As of the close, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fell 0.89%. The spot price index of iron ore ports decreased, and the market trading sentiment was average. The global iron ore shipment volume this period increased significantly compared with last week, with a total global shipment of 3348 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 2271 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports and forward spot transactions both increased month - on - month [3] - Comprehensive View: The iron ore shipment recovered this period. The molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market still shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, but when the reality turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - Market Analysis: The trading of coking coal was sluggish, and the online auction failure rate was high. The price of imported Mongolian coal continued to fall with the decline of the futures market and the implementation of coke price cuts [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: With the decline of coal prices, the cost - effectiveness of domestic coal and Mongolian coal became prominent, and supply increased. Against the background of high molten iron output, coking coal demand remained resilient, and inventory remained stable at a high level. In the short term, the supply - demand of coking coal weakened, and prices continued to fall due to the implementation of the first - round coke price cut, pessimistic expectations, and the off - season of thermal coal [6] - Strategy: Sideways to Weak [7] Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures market oscillated downward. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a decline of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [5] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, coke supply is relatively stable. High molten iron output ensures the consumption intensity of coke, and inventory remains at a medium - high level. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited. In the short term, the decline of coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cut have a downward drag on coke prices [6] - Strategy: Sideways [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the decline of port prices slowed down, and pit - mouth coal prices oscillated weakly. The market sentiment slightly improved. The number of coal - pulling trucks in a few coal mines increased, and inventory pressure eased, with prices temporarily stable. However, some terminals and large station customers were still pressing prices, and most traders were still pessimistic and cautious. In the port market, the situation remained weak, and port inventory was at a high level. With the decline of power plant daily consumption in the off - season, downstream inventory continued to accumulate. The imported coal market was operating weakly and steadily. With the continuous decline of domestic prices, the bid price of imported coal continued to fall, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [8] - Demand and Logic: In the short term, the demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and prices lack obvious support with the warming weather. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - Strategy: None [8]