1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are lackluster. The short - term disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is still an expectation of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - Steel demand remains resilient, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The fundamentals have limited highlights. Recently, accidents in some steel mills have disturbed the supply side, and the cost support has weakened. The disk performance is poor. The inventory pressure of iron ore may continue to increase, and the disk is weakly adjusted. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, but the first round of price increases by coke enterprises has been postponed, and the disk is weakly declining. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the disk price [1][2] 3.2 Different Element Analysis 3.2.1 Iron Element - The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply side is still subject to disturbance expectations due to weather, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption has also increased, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 3.2.2 Carbon Element - The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal. As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter storage intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot still has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals after the change of trading logic on the disk is limited [2] 3.3 Different Product Analysis 3.3.1 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The steel mill复产 rhythm has slowed down, the iron water output has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory level is moderately high. Later, there is still seasonal weakening pressure on demand, and the steel mill still has room for复产. There is still pressure to accumulate inventory on the steel side. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to be weakly adjusted [8] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the supply side is subject to disturbance expectations due to weather. The demand side has rigid support, and the steel mill restocking is in progress but the enthusiasm is weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate. The supply increase expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9] 3.3.3 Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased significantly, and the daily consumption has also increased. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The recent price of finished products is under pressure, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [10] 3.3.4 Coke - The cost side of coke has strong support, but the price increase implementation has been postponed due to the slight decrease in steel mill iron water output. As the mid - and downstream winter storage restocking starts, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The disk is expected to follow coking coal [12] 3.3.5 Coking Coal - The trading logic of the disk has changed, and it is weakly operating. The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The winter storage inventory of the mid - and downstream is gradually in place. As the Spring Festival approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the spot has upward momentum, but the bullish driving force of the disk is limited. It is expected to oscillate [13] 3.3.6 Glass - The supply is still subject to disturbance expectations, and the mid - and downstream inventory is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.3.7 Soda Ash - The supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [14][16] 3.3.8 Manganese Silicon - The cost support of manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The upside space of the disk price is limited, but the current disk price is at a low level, and excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [16] 3.3.9 Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is both weak, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. In the short term, the disk price is expected to follow the sector. The current price valuation is low, and the downward space is limited [17] 3.4 Index Information - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2414.16, down 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, down 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, down 0.34%. The steel industry chain index on January 20, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.28%, a decline of 2.75% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.05% in the past month, and a decline of 0.23% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the market is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and there is an expectation of a low - level upward movement in the prices of furnace materials [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The expected increase in supply and inventory pressure are gradually rising. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the ground still need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, which supports the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decline due to the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the previous rally, the driving force for the futures market to continue rising is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost push of manganese silicon is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited. However, the current futures price valuation is low, and under the high - cost support, the risk of excessive short - selling should be guarded against [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the trend of the sector [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, the price center will still decline, and capacity de - stocking will be promoted [3]. 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support is weakening, and the futures market is under pressure. The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill复产 rhythm slows down, the iron water output decreases, and the five major steel products' output growth slows down. The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. The inventory is still being de - stocked, but the de - stocking speed is not obvious, and the inventory level is moderately high. It is expected to be under pressure in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has declined, with both shipments and arrivals decreasing. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, arrivals have declined, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has rigid support, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. The port inventory is accumulating, and the supply pressure expectation has increased. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has increased significantly, and the supply has recovered. The electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption also keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate following the finished products [10]. - **Coke**: The steel mill's rigid demand has declined, and the implementation of the price increase has been postponed. The cost side support is strong, but the steel mill's iron water output has slightly decreased, so the price increase implementation is delayed. The futures market is expected to follow the trend of coking coal [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is rising well, and the futures market is oscillating. The domestic supply is stable, and the Mongolian coal import has recovered. The demand side has seen an increase in winter restocking by coking enterprises, and the upstream coal mine inventory has been continuously digested. The spot price still has upward momentum, but the futures market's upward driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. - **Glass**: The futures price has corrected, and the spot and futures markets have started to sell. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the large inventory in the middle reaches always suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, it will oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price has fallen at a low level, and the futures premium has decreased. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand is showing a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensifying. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is loosening, and the de - stocking pressure still exists. The cost push is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the futures price is running weakly. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is difficult to achieve high - level inventory digestion. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but excessive short - selling risks should be guarded against [15]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it follows the sector's weakening. The market has weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The cost is at a relatively high level, which supports the price bottom. The demand support in the off - season is limited, and the supply is at a low level. In the short term, the futures market is expected to follow the black sector, and the downward space is limited [17]. 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28% [103]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 19, 2026, has a daily increase or decrease of - 0.82%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 1.37%, a one - month increase or decrease of + 1.16%, and an increase or decrease since the beginning of the year of + 1.07% [105].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No specific rating, expected to trade in a narrow range [8] 2. Core Views - The market trading volume is weak, with steel prices fluctuating, iron ore prices slightly declining, and coking coal and coke prices moving sideways. Thermal coal prices are expected to trade in a narrow range due to a stalemate in port trading [1][3][5][8]. - For steel, the fundamentals of building materials have slightly weakened, while those of plates have limited contradictions. The short - term price depends on cost changes [1]. - For iron ore, the supply is relatively sufficient, but the demand has slightly declined. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the price will move sideways in the short term [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is stable, but the coke enterprises are facing losses and may raise prices. The steel enterprises are close to the break - even point. The short - term price trend is sideways [5][6]. - For thermal coal, the downstream demand has not met expectations, and the price is expected to trade in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the supply pattern and non - power coal consumption [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3160 yuan/ton and 3307 yuan/ton respectively. The output of the five major steel products has slightly increased this week, the inventory has decreased, and the consumption has increased significantly. The national building materials trading volume is 8.62 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of building materials have slightly weakened, and the downstream winter storage and restocking have been delayed, leading to a rebound in inventory. The fundamentals of plates have limited contradictions, but high inventory suppresses price elasticity. The short - term price depends on cost changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore has slightly declined. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports are weak. The total trading volume of iron ore in major ports nationwide is 98.1 tons, a 20.29% decrease from the previous period. The total trading volume of forward spot is 106.0 tons, a 5.02% decrease. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills this week is 228 tons, a decrease of 1.49 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports is 16555 tons, a 1.7% increase [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply at ports is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. The short - term profitability of steel mills has recovered, but the daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. The supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the total inventory is rising. However, due to the weakening of the liquidity of some port supplies, the ore price remains high, and steel mills have insufficient short - term restocking willingness [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke have moved sideways. The price of coal for blast furnace injection is stable, and the coking profit has been repaired. The supply in the production area has steadily increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rapidly recovered, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at around 1070 - 1080 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply of coke is stable. Affected by the rising price of coking coal at the cost end, the losses of coke enterprises have intensified, and there are production restrictions. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, and coke plants may raise prices in the near future. For coking coal, the supply is increasing steadily, suppressing the market. The inventory at ports and in factories is high, and the pressure to reduce inventory is large [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, the prices are still rising and falling. The downstream non - power terminals are still restocking on a need - basis. The demand for high - quality coal is high, and the inventory is decreasing, with the price rising steadily. The speculative demand is poor, and there is more resistance to high - priced coal. The inventory of coal mines with relatively poor coal quality is accumulating, and they are selling at a reduced grade. At ports, the market is loosening, and traders are willing to sell at a reduced price before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory, but the actual trading volume is small. The imported coal market is relatively stable [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal price has been rising slightly recently, but the downstream demand has not met expectations, and the downstream is more wait - and - see. The coal supply has high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel market has average transactions, with steel prices fluctuating. The iron ore market has a decline in global shipments, and ore prices are rising while fluctuating. The coking coal and coke market has seen the third round of price cuts implemented, with prices fluctuating. The thermal coal market has a narrowing decline in production area coal prices due to supply contraction at the end of the month [1][3][5][8] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures maintained a fluctuating trend. Spot inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in national cities decreased significantly, and overall spot transactions were average, mainly at low prices [1] - Supply and demand: The supply-demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, with off-season consumption showing resilience, a slight increase in production, and a continuous decline in inventory. However, there is an expected seasonal decline in demand. Plate production decreased slightly, consumption and exports also declined slightly but still showed resilience. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar continued to weaken [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices rose while fluctuating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The total spot trading volume at major national ports was 1.009 million tons, a 15.91% increase from the previous day, and the forward spot trading volume was 1.12 million tons, a 38.96% increase. The global iron ore shipments decreased slightly to 34.65 million tons, a 3.6% decrease, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased slightly to 26.47 million tons, a 2.8% decrease. Port inventories continued to accumulate, with the total inventory at 45 ports reaching 156.82 million tons, a 1.1% increase [3] - Supply and demand: The supply-demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate. Non-mainstream shipments remain at a high level under high valuations, and the total inventory has continued to rise. However, due to the lack of liquidity of some port supplies, ore prices remain high. Some steel mills have reduced production to relieve restocking pressure and have insufficient short-term restocking willingness. If the liquidity of some port supplies recovers, ore prices will face downward pressure [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and spot: The futures of coking coal and coke fluctuated. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong implemented the third round of coke price cuts, with a reduction of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coking enterprises began to restock appropriately, and coking coal transactions improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is 970 - 980 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal is about 1,050 yuan/ton [5][6] - Supply and demand: For coke, after the third round of price cuts, supply has contracted, and demand has weakened due to the decline in molten iron. Short-term supply and demand maintain a weak balance, and coke prices remain under pressure. For coking coal, imported coal has impacted the domestic market, downstream demand is insufficient, and coking coal inventories have continued to accumulate. Coupled with the decline in thermal coal prices, the fundamentals of coking coal are weak. However, due to the approaching delivery month, the price of the near-month contract returns to the warehouse receipt value, so the futures price maintains a wide - range fluctuation [6] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices rose and fell. The shipment of medium and low - calorie coal from some coal mines improved, but high - calorie coal mines still saw price declines. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, but some rigid demand and short - selling inquiries increased near the end of the month. The supply at the production areas tightened at the end of the year, and the pessimistic market sentiment eased slightly. The load of downstream power plants and terminal enterprises did not increase significantly, the actual procurement intensity remained weak, and short - term prices remained weak. The price of imported low - calorie coal stabilized, and there were also inquiries for high - calorie coal, but there was still a situation of bargaining and waiting and seeing [8] - Supply and demand: Supply has contracted near the end of the month, but coal demand is poor, inventories continue to grow, and coal prices fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [8] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Fluctuating; Cross - variety: None; Cross - period: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: Fluctuating; Coke: Fluctuating; Cross - variety: None; Cross - period: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of macro - expectation implementation and price fluctuations. The iron ore market has intensifying supply - demand contradictions and wide - range price oscillations. The coking coal and coke market is affected by supply expectations and shows an oscillatory trend. The thermal coal market has weak spot prices and different views at ports [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil at 3,233 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were average, with prices rising slightly following the futures. National building materials transactions reached 101,217 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials' supply - demand fundamentals are improving, with decreasing production and low inventory pressure. Plate prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand has resilience. Attention should be paid to demand, exports, production cuts, and profit changes during the off - season [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The 2605 contract closed at 753 yuan, down 0.92%. Spot prices fell slightly with few transactions, and steel mills restocked as needed [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week's iron ore shipments increased by 6.6% week - on - week to 3,592.5 million tons, with Australia up 4.3% and Brazil up 32.7%. Supply - demand contradictions are intensifying, inventory is rising, and some port supplies have weak liquidity, supporting high prices. Some steel mills have started production cuts, and there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. If port supply liquidity recovers, prices may face pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2][3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated strongly, with coking coal prices rebounding significantly. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment for imported Mongolian coal [3]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, supply is at a low level, and there is no obvious increase. Mongolian coal customs clearance is high, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. Steel mills' procurement is mainly for刚需, and the market's restocking willingness is weak. For coke, the second price cut has been implemented, profits are shrinking, supply has declined slightly, and demand is weak due to some steel mill overhauls and lack of winter - storage restocking [3][4]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [3][4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weak, and snow has affected shipments. Some coal mines have stopped production. At ports, there are different views. Some traders think coal prices will stabilize due to increased daily consumption in cold weather, while others are selling at reduced prices due to high inventory and turnover requirements. Import coal has great pressure, and the market is inactive [4]. - **Demand and Logic**: Coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. Some coal mines will stop production after completing annual tasks, and supply improvement is difficult. In the long - term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [4][5]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to coal mine safety supervision, port inventory changes, daily consumption of power and chemical coal, and other unexpected events [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Weak Bias [3] - Coking Coal: Sideways with a Weak Bias [5] - Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: Sideways [7] 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for steel has declined, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been significantly alleviated. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure has been well - relieved under the situation of weak supply and demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has significantly narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory still suppresses plate prices [1]. - The spot supply - demand of iron ore is tight, and ore prices are oscillating upwards. This week, iron ore shipments have slightly declined, port inventories have continued to rise, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased month - on - month. Steel mill profits have continued to decline and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet been transmitted to ore prices [2]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is becoming more relaxed, and prices are oscillating. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the sentiment in the coke market. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been significantly pressured [3][4]. - The procurement of thermal coal for essential needs is maintained, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coils closed at 3304 yuan/ton. The spot trading of steel was average yesterday, weaker than the day before [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of inventory reduction, the inventory pressure on finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has narrowed. The supply and demand of plates are strong, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to production cuts and profit changes [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. The cumulative turnover of iron ore at major national ports was 1.033 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.95%. The cumulative turnover of forward - looking spot was 1.542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.55% [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: This week, iron ore shipments slightly declined, port inventories continued to rise, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, and steel mill profits declined and triggered production cuts. High supply has not yet affected ore prices. Attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for single - sided trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke futures oscillated yesterday. The coking coal market has weakened, driving down the coke market sentiment. The supply of coking coal has slowly recovered, and its trading has been pressured. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal has slightly increased, and supply - demand contradictions are gradually accumulating. The cost support for coke has weakened, and the market sentiment is weak. Attention should be paid to coking profits and cost changes [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways with a weak bias for coking coal; sideways for coke; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating strongly. The shipments of large stations and power plants are stable, and some coal mines have smooth sales. The supply is gradually tightening, supporting coal prices. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, and downstream procurement demand is cold. The inventory at northern ports has rapidly accumulated, and the pressure on traders to sell has increased. The import coal bidding price has decreased, and the market expectation for January is not good [6]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, there has been more wait - and - see sentiment, and coal prices are oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - Specific varieties: iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all rated as "oscillation" [6][7][10][11][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black price is in a weak oscillation. Although the demand is weakly expected in the peak season, the cost supply is disturbed, and there is a driving force for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. The follow - up should focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. - After the decline of the glass futures and spot market sentiment, the supply is expected to be stable, and the short - term is expected to oscillate widely. The long - term price center will decline [13][14]. - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to the same period last year, with relatively stable total supply [2]. - Demand: The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter decreased significantly. There is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, but the impact is limited. After the parade, iron ore demand may return to a high level [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory decreased this week, and the total inventory slightly declined [2]. - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - Supply: Production in some mines is restricted, and coal mine safety inspections are increasing. Although the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port remains high, overall, coal mine production has tightened before the parade [2]. - Demand: The eighth round of coke price increase is restarted, and the demand for coking coal has slightly declined in the short term. Downstream purchases on demand, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but there is no obvious inventory pressure [2]. - Outlook: Before the parade, the coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Although it is difficult for the eighth round of coke price increase to be implemented, the futures market is still supported [11]. Coke - Supply: After the seventh - round price increase was fully implemented, the profits of coking enterprises recovered. As the parade approaches, the start - up of some coking enterprises is restricted, while others maintain normal production [10]. - Demand: Downstream steel mills have good profits and high production willingness, but affected by the parade, the start - up of some steel mills in North China will also be restricted, and the demand is affected [10]. - Outlook: The game of the eighth - round price increase continues. Before the parade, the futures market is still supported, but the actual implementation is difficult [10]. 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - Supply: The production level has reached a high point this year, and the market supply pressure is gradually accumulating [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profits are good, but as the parade approaches, steel production will decline slightly, and the short - term demand for manganese silicon is expected to decline [2]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited due to cost support, but the long - term price center may decline [16]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: Manufacturers' resumption of production has accelerated, and production has gradually reached a high level [17]. - Demand: Steel production will decline slightly during the parade, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking will decline. The magnesium market has supply pressure and weak demand [17]. - Outlook: The short - term price decline space is limited, but the long - term price center is expected to decline [17][18]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable [2]. - Demand: The demand in the off - season has declined, but the deep - processing orders have increased month - on - month. The inventory days of raw sheets have reached a high point this year, and the mid - stream and downstream lack the ability to replenish inventory [13]. - Outlook: The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price is expected to decline after returning to fundamental trading [13][14]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The long - term supply pressure still exists, and short - term production is affected. It is expected that both production capacity and output will increase in the future [15]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain stable, and the demand for light soda ash is flat, with weak downstream replenishment sentiment [15]. - Outlook: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to oscillate widely, and the long - term price center will decline [15]. 3.6 Steel - Supply: The production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. The supply of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little [6]. - Demand: The demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains at a high level, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: The short - term futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and the follow - up should focus on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [6]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Supply: The arrival volume of scrap steel decreased week - on - week [8]. - Demand: The profit of electric furnaces is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process furnaces has slightly increased, and the total daily consumption has increased slightly [8]. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's rebar apparent demand data fell short of expectations, and combined with coking coal position limits, the black sector continued its weakening trend. Although some coal mines are resuming production, supply may still contract due to ongoing inspections. There is a strong expectation of production restrictions before major events, which provides strong support for prices. Steel downstream inventory pressure is emerging, and the performance in the next few weeks needs attention. If there are macro - level positives before the inventory contradiction intensifies, there is a chance of resonance. In the near term, prices are expected to oscillate within the current range with limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to last year's level. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and it is less likely for steel enterprises to cut production in the short term due to profit reasons. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2]. - Inventory: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly increasing. The fundamental bearish driving force is limited, and the future price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines have reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. On the import side, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has led to a decline in the number of customs - cleared vehicles to around a thousand, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area has restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term Mongolian coal imports may be restricted [3]. - Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before and have no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange's position limit, market sentiment has declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Alloy: The ex - works price of manganese ore has increased, the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers has rebounded, and there is support on the demand side for manganese ore. With the current acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore is gradually rising. In an environment of industry profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese - silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the market supply - demand gap will tend to be filled, and there are still hidden concerns in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals. The upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly increasing, and the internal contradiction is not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances [4]. - Demand: After the decline in the glass futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the mid - stream has increased shipments, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly. Recently, the increase in coal prices has strengthened cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely [4]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed, production is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. Although there is no short - term production disturbance, production is expected to continue to increase [17]. - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out. The demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. The sentiment affects the futures market, and the large month - to - month spread alleviates some delivery pressure, but the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [17]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses 3.6.1 Steel - Core Logic: Speculative sentiment is poor, some futures - spot traders are selling, and terminal buyers are more cautious. Steel mill production is a mix of resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has not changed much. Rebar inventory has increased significantly, and demand has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil export orders have improved, and domestic demand has resilience, with inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventories of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils have increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products has declined, continuing the off - season characteristics [9]. - Outlook: The sentiment in the coking coal market has cooled, and the futures market has declined from its high. Currently, the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, but there may be disturbances in supply - demand and cost before the military parade. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [9]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume was 130.2 (+46) million tons. The price of the swap main contract was 102.64 (-0.87) US dollars per ton. Spot market prices fell by 7 - 15 yuan per ton, and port trading volume increased significantly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is strong. Pig iron production increased, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: Iron ore demand is at a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the fundamental bearish driving force is limited. Future prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The demand from electric furnaces increased to a new high this year, and the demand from blast furnaces also increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [11]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both increasing, and the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.6.4 Coke - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has cooled, and the spot price has declined. After the sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprise profits turned positive, and production increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are profitable and actively producing, and the demand for coke is strong. Although there is a large amount of inventory in the mid - stream, the supply - demand structure is still tight [13]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of coke production restrictions. The supply - demand of coke will remain tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel mills [13]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has declined after the exchange's position limit. Some coal mines have reduced production due to various reasons, and short - term supply disturbances will continue. Mongolian coal imports may be restricted. The demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure [14]. - Outlook: Due to the impact of over - production inspections, coking coal supply is expected to recover slowly. Although the sentiment has declined after the position limit, the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [14]. 3.6.6 Manganese - Silicon - Core Logic: The manganese - silicon futures price followed the sector down after the significant decline in the coal - coke futures price. The spot price remained firm. The cost of manganese ore is rising, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser as manufacturers resume production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [17]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term upside price space is limited [18]. 3.6.7 Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: After the market sentiment cooled and the coal - coke futures price dropped significantly, the ferrosilicon futures market weakened. The spot market is short of supply, and prices are firm. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers resume production, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have hidden concerns, and the upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the coal market and electricity costs [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the black market is oscillating downward. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply disturbances, with glass showing strength and soda ash showing weakness on the futures market. The double-silicon market is weak due to low market sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated upward yesterday with strong speculative sentiment. In the spot market, the shipment of manufacturers in the Shahe area was acceptable, the East China market was weakly sorted, most enterprises in the Central China region remained stable, the market price in the South China region was stable, the demand in the Northeast market was poor, the enterprise shipment was restricted, and the transaction in the Southwest region continued to slow down [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak oscillating downward trend yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices, and downstream buyers made appropriate purchases at low prices [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - The real estate completion data is still poor, leading to a pessimistic outlook for glass consumption. Currently, glass production is at a low level, downstream consumption is weak, short-term restocking cannot change the weak reality, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the short term, glass is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines and real estate data [1]. - With the successive implementation of new production projects, the high supply pressure of soda ash has emerged again. It is expected that the pressure to reduce inventory will be relatively large in the future, and prices will still be under pressure. Future attention should be paid to the intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Strategy - Glass is expected to oscillate, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. There are no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2]. Group 4: Double - Silicon Analysis Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to decline yesterday, with a decline of 0.92%. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market was weak, with few factory quotes. The price of 6517 in the northern and southern markets was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, silicon manganese production is at a low level, with a slight week - on - week increase, and is generally at a low level in recent years. Currently, hot metal production remains at a high level in the same period, and the demand for silicon manganese is resilient. However, considering the strong expectation that hot metal production has peaked, it suppresses the futures market. High inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppress the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore has slightly increased from a low level, and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices has dragged down shipments, which supports the cost of alloys. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3]. - Silicon iron futures continued to be weak yesterday. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Against the background of enterprise losses, silicon iron production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years. High hot metal production maintains the resilience of silicon iron demand, but the inventory reduction of manufacturers has become weak, and the inventory of downstream enterprises remains low. Silicon iron production capacity is relatively abundant, and short - term prices are dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to changes in electricity prices and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3]. Strategy - For silicon manganese, the near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a low - level rebound in the far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to oscillate [4].