投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-08-15 钢材需求不及预期，价格进⼀步回落 昨⽇螺纹表需数据不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓，⿊⾊板块延续⾛弱趋 势。⽬前部分煤矿陆续复产，但核查仍在进⾏供应仍有收缩可能。 除此之外，重⼤活动前限产预期较强，对价格形成强⽀撑。钢材下游 库存压⼒初现，需要继续关注后续⼏周表现。在库存⽭盾激化前若有 宏观利好仍有形成共振机会。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运⾏为 主，下⽅空间有限。 昨日螺纹表需数据不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓，黑色板块延续走弱趋 势。目前部分煤矿陆续复产，但核查仍在进行供应仍有收缩可能。 除此之外，重大活动前限产预期较强，对价格形成强支撑。钢材下游 库存压力初现，需要继续关注后续几周表现。在库存矛盾激化前若有 宏观利好仍有形成共振机会。近期价格预计以当前区间内震荡运行为 主，下方空间有限。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比小幅下降，45港口到港量回落至 去年同期水平，供应相对平稳，增量不明显；需求端钢企盈利率小幅 下降，同比依然处于高位，铁水产量微幅回升，钢企短期因利润原因 减产可能性较小，关注下旬限产政策。库存方面，铁矿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the black market is oscillating downward. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply disturbances, with glass showing strength and soda ash showing weakness on the futures market. The double-silicon market is weak due to low market sentiment [1][3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Analysis Market Analysis - Glass futures oscillated upward yesterday with strong speculative sentiment. In the spot market, the shipment of manufacturers in the Shahe area was acceptable, the East China market was weakly sorted, most enterprises in the Central China region remained stable, the market price in the South China region was stable, the demand in the Northeast market was poor, the enterprise shipment was restricted, and the transaction in the Southwest region continued to slow down [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak oscillating downward trend yesterday. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices, and downstream buyers made appropriate purchases at low prices [1]. Supply and Demand Logic - The real estate completion data is still poor, leading to a pessimistic outlook for glass consumption. Currently, glass production is at a low level, downstream consumption is weak, short-term restocking cannot change the weak reality, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the short term, glass is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines and real estate data [1]. - With the successive implementation of new production projects, the high supply pressure of soda ash has emerged again. It is expected that the pressure to reduce inventory will be relatively large in the future, and prices will still be under pressure. Future attention should be paid to the intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Strategy - Glass is expected to oscillate, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. There are no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2]. Group 4: Double - Silicon Analysis Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to decline yesterday, with a decline of 0.92%. In the spot market, the silicon manganese market was weak, with few factory quotes. The price of 6517 in the northern and southern markets was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, silicon manganese production is at a low level, with a slight week - on - week increase, and is generally at a low level in recent years. Currently, hot metal production remains at a high level in the same period, and the demand for silicon manganese is resilient. However, considering the strong expectation that hot metal production has peaked, it suppresses the futures market. High inventory of silicon manganese manufacturers and registered warrants suppress the price of silicon manganese. The port inventory of manganese ore has slightly increased from a low level, and the continuous decline in manganese ore prices has dragged down shipments, which supports the cost of alloys. Future attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3]. - Silicon iron futures continued to be weak yesterday. In the spot market, the silicon iron market was weak, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. Against the background of enterprise losses, silicon iron production has dropped to the lowest level in recent years. High hot metal production maintains the resilience of silicon iron demand, but the inventory reduction of manufacturers has become weak, and the inventory of downstream enterprises remains low. Silicon iron production capacity is relatively abundant, and short - term prices are dragged down by costs. Future attention should be paid to changes in electricity prices and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3]. Strategy - For silicon manganese, the near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of a low - level rebound in the far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to oscillate [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The market remains cautious, and the black commodities continue to show weakness. Steel prices are running weakly, iron ore prices are fluctuating narrowly, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating downward, and thermal coal prices are stabilizing. The future trends of these commodities depend on factors such as supply - side policies, consumption situations, and tariff policies [1][3][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: On the previous day, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton. The trading in the futures market was average, and the overall spot market transactions were relatively weak with steel prices continuing to decline [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the building material output remained stable. With the flood season in the southern region, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Although exports are resilient, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on exports in the future [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be based on oscillations; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: On the previous day, the iron ore futures oscillated. The main 2509 contract rose 0.28%, and the closing price was basically the same as the previous day. The port spot price index of iron ore increased, and the forward market was active. The cumulative transactions of main ports and forward spot iron ore increased month - on - month [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipments increased this period, and the molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, and the timing of the shift to a loose situation depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be based on oscillations; no strategies for inter - variety or inter - period trading are provided [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: On the previous day, the double - coking futures oscillated downward. The first round of coke price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking coal transactions were sluggish. The pit - mouth coal price of coking coal continued to decline, and the import coal market was in a poor situation with price inversion and reduced liquidity [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, the supply is relatively stable, high molten iron output ensures consumption intensity, and inventory is at a medium - high level with limited supply - demand contradictions. The short - term decline in coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cuts have a downward drag on coke. For coking coal, as coal prices fall, the supply increases, and the demand maintains resilience with high - level stable inventory. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of coking coal weakens [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be traded with a weak - oscillation strategy; coke should be traded with an oscillation strategy; no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading are provided [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the decline in port prices slowed down, the pit - mouth coal price oscillated weakly, and the market sentiment eased slightly. In the ports, the market continued to be weak, the inquiry demand increased, and the decline in quotes narrowed. The import coal market was running weakly, with the tender price continuing to decline and low procurement enthusiasm [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the short term, the demand for thermal coal lacks support, and as the weather warms up, the price support is obvious. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged [8]. - **Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal: Sideways to Weak [7] - Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy [8] Group 2: Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, and the black market is oscillating weakly. The macro - expectation is weak, and steel prices are oscillating. Iron ore market sentiment is cautious, and ore prices are oscillating. Coking coal and coke prices are showing different trends, with coking coal being sideways to weak and coke being sideways. Thermal coal port inventory is continuously accumulating, and pit - mouth coal prices are weakly operating [1][3][5][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The rebar main contract 2510 closed at 3069 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3207 yuan/ton. The futures market trading was average, and the spot market overall transaction was generally weak, with steel prices continuously falling [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials improved month - on - month. However, considering the good long - process profits, the building materials output remained stable. With the arrival of the main flood season in the southern region, building materials consumption will gradually decline. The output of plates decreased, consumption remained high, and inventory continued to decline. Exports were resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market, but high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports [1] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated weakly. As of the close, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fell 0.89%. The spot price index of iron ore ports decreased, and the market trading sentiment was average. The global iron ore shipment volume this period increased significantly compared with last week, with a total global shipment of 3348 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 ports this period was 2271 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. The cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports and forward spot transactions both increased month - on - month [3] - Comprehensive View: The iron ore shipment recovered this period. The molten iron output oscillated at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remained relatively high, but there was no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market still shows a pattern of relatively loose supply and demand, but when the reality turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies [3] - Strategy: Unilateral: Sideways; Others: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal - Market Analysis: The trading of coking coal was sluggish, and the online auction failure rate was high. The price of imported Mongolian coal continued to fall with the decline of the futures market and the implementation of coke price cuts [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: With the decline of coal prices, the cost - effectiveness of domestic coal and Mongolian coal became prominent, and supply increased. Against the background of high molten iron output, coking coal demand remained resilient, and inventory remained stable at a high level. In the short term, the supply - demand of coking coal weakened, and prices continued to fall due to the implementation of the first - round coke price cut, pessimistic expectations, and the off - season of thermal coal [6] - Strategy: Sideways to Weak [7] Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures market oscillated downward. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a decline of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [5] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Currently, coke supply is relatively stable. High molten iron output ensures the consumption intensity of coke, and inventory remains at a medium - high level. The overall supply - demand contradiction is limited. In the short term, the decline of coal prices and the implementation of the first - round coke price cut have a downward drag on coke prices [6] - Strategy: Sideways [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, the decline of port prices slowed down, and pit - mouth coal prices oscillated weakly. The market sentiment slightly improved. The number of coal - pulling trucks in a few coal mines increased, and inventory pressure eased, with prices temporarily stable. However, some terminals and large station customers were still pressing prices, and most traders were still pessimistic and cautious. In the port market, the situation remained weak, and port inventory was at a high level. With the decline of power plant daily consumption in the off - season, downstream inventory continued to accumulate. The imported coal market was operating weakly and steadily. With the continuous decline of domestic prices, the bid price of imported coal continued to fall, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high [8] - Demand and Logic: In the short term, the demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and prices lack obvious support with the warming weather. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - Strategy: None [8]

黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-07 市场矛盾不足，矿价弱势震荡 玻璃纯碱：现货成交弱稳，玻碱高开低走 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面高开偏弱震荡。现货方面，市场整体成交弱稳，环比假期有所好转。 供需与逻辑：近期点火、放水产线均有，点火产线尚未出货的情况下，供应压力或可小幅缓解，玻璃库存小幅去 化。然而由于地产和深加工需求恢复不足，导致补库力度和持续性不强，价格缺乏向上空间，后期高温梅雨季节 不利于玻璃储存，所以企业出货降库的意向或将较前期更加强烈。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面高开震荡偏弱。现货方面，市场需求一般，刚需采购为主，华北和华中地区轻重碱 价格环比下跌10-30元/吨。 供需与逻辑：近期纯碱产量稳步提升，维持宽松状态，需求相对稳定，低价补库。其中，光伏增量放缓，纯碱需 求提升空间有限，去库压力仍然偏大。预计后期会不间断的出现碱厂降负检修情况，以缓解纯碱累库压力。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 房地产政策、宏观数据情况、光伏产业投产、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：成本中枢下移，双硅再创新低 市场分析 硅锰方面：随着市场情绪的进一步走弱 ...