■王丽新 第二，借城市更新"提质进阶"之力，加快构建房地产发展新模式。此次会议提出"高质量推进城市更新"。当前，多地已明 确城市更新与"稳楼市"的联动逻辑，即开展老旧小区改造、城中村整治等工作，修复存量住房价值、稳定资产价格预期，通过 货币化或房票安置释放购房需求。 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议提出，坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险。着力稳定房地产 市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推 动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。此外，会议还提出"高质量推进城市更新"。 在笔者看来，当前房地产市场正处于转型关键期，加快风险出清与构建发展新模式并行推进。此次会议有关房地产的定调 既锚定短期市场稳预期的核心目标，又夯实长期健康发展的制度基础，为2026年行业发展划定清晰路径，释放出"稳市场、促 更新、化风险"的清晰信号，有诸多亮点值得深思。 第一，以"控增量、去库存、优供给"为准绳，筑牢市场平稳运行根基。房地产市场的稳定，核心在于供需关系的动态平 衡，不仅要"控增量"，更要优化供给，各地需将市场交易情况与卖地规模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the stable monetary policy direction and the supportive environment for banks, highlighting the potential for improved credit risk and new business opportunities in the technology and consumption sectors due to recent policy initiatives [1][10]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is described as supportive, with expectations of possible structural adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements throughout 2025, although the timing will depend on various economic factors [3]. - The anticipated decline in interest margins for banks is projected to be within a controlled range of 10-15 basis points [3]. Debt Management - Significant progress has been made in managing local government debt, with a total of 2.96 trillion yuan in debt replacement bonds issued as of March 5, 2025, leading to a reduction in interest expenses by over 200 billion yuan [4][5]. - The number of financing platforms has decreased significantly, with about 40% exiting the market by the end of 2024, aided by debt replacement efforts [5]. Financial Support for Innovation - The introduction of a "Technology Board" in the bond market aims to encourage banks to increase credit support for technology innovation, expanding funding sources for commercial banks [6]. - The re-loan policy for technology innovation is set to be optimized, with plans to increase the scale from 500 billion yuan to between 800 billion and 1 trillion yuan, alongside reduced interest rates [6]. Consumer Policy Initiatives - Various measures to boost consumption have been proposed, including expanding the scope of trade-in programs and enhancing financial support for personal and enterprise loans in sectors closely related to daily life [7]. - Fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans and targeted support for businesses in the service sector are expected to stimulate demand and improve the banking sector's retail loan performance [7]. Investment Strategy - The article suggests that the effective risk mitigation measures will lead to promising absolute returns for bank stocks, with a focus on companies with stable performance and dividend yields [9][10]. - The expectation of a revaluation of business models in 2025 is anticipated to enhance bank valuations, with a recommendation to select stocks with high return on equity and low current valuation premiums [10].