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芳烃橡胶早报-20250916
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:38
芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/16 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 9/09 66.4 597 836 4605 6805 110.61 239.0 75 226 80.3 76.8 14651 -65 0.40 2025/0 9/10 67.5 603 838 4625 6725 108.55 235.0 86 134 80.3 76.8 11842 -65 0.90 2025/0 9/11 66.4 604 838 4620 6760 117.51 234.0 82 181 80.3 76.8 11434 -65 0.40 2025/0 9/12 67.0 599 832 4575 6760 107.46 233.0 66 229 80.3 76.8 9893 -75 0.35 2025/0 9/15 67.0 599 832 4575 6710 107.46 233.0 66 2 ...
芳烃橡胶早报-20250616
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:14
Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA start - up continues to rise, polyester start - up declines slightly, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains strong while spot processing fees weaken. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, pay attention to opportunities to short the processing fees [2]. - For MEG, the near - term maintenance returns, start - up rises significantly, port inventory accumulates slightly, and the basis weakens. It will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage, and is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to changes in Iranian imports [6]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device runs stably, production and sales improve, and inventory decreases. However, downstream demand is not improved, and processing fees are expected to remain weak. Pay attention to further production cuts in the industry [6]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level but does not seasonally decline, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, crude oil rose by $4.8, PTA spot rose by $50, and spot processing fees weakened with a decrease of $49. The new Fengming 300 - million - ton device restarted [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term TA start - up continues to rise, polyester start - up declines slightly, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains strong. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas rises, and PXN and its structure weaken. In the future, the bottle - chip contradiction may drag down polyester load, and TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage. Pay attention to opportunities to short the processing fees [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, Northeast Asian ethylene rose by $10, MEG domestic price rose by $50, and coal - based MEG profit increased by $57.04. The satellite 90 - million - ton device was under maintenance, the Yankuang 40 - million - ton device increased its load, and the Hengli 90 - million - ton device restarted [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term maintenance returns, start - up rises significantly, port inventory accumulates slightly, downstream inventory levels decline, and the basis weakens. The stage of the fastest port inventory reduction is over, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage. It is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to changes in Iranian imports [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose by $95, and short - fiber profit decreased by $54. The near - term device runs stably with a start - up rate of 92.1%, production and sales improve, and inventory decreases [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - fiber supply decline is limited, and the polyester start - up decline due to bottle - chip production cuts may repair the profit. However, downstream demand is not improved, and processing fees are expected to remain weak. Pay attention to further production cuts in the industry [6]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 9 to 13, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber rose by $5, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber rose by $425. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level but does not seasonally decline, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, the price of CFR China styrene rose by $35, and styrene domestic profit increased by $41 [10]. - **Market Outlook**: Not provided in the given content