M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/09/24 840 508 4301 4322 4301 196 -822 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/25 820 507 4315 4335 4320 210 -712 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/26 810 506 4294 4315 4302 147 -685 73.4 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/29 810 505 4295 4315 4297 148 -681 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/30 805 502 4275 4295 4278 128 -699 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 变化 -5 -3 -20 -20 -19.00 -20.00 -18 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对01（+66）附近。 MEG装置变化 山西美锦30万吨检修。 周度观点 近端EG检修回归叠加新 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, as the device restarts, the de - stocking slows down. With no unexpected performance from polyester and new production in the future, the long - term inventory build - up is expected. However, the processing fee has reached a very low level for a long time, and with the gradual return of PX supply, attention should be paid to the opportunity to expand the processing fee under potential additional maintenance [2]. - For MEG, new devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and the valuation is significantly compressed. With the subsequent increase in arrivals and high supply expectations in the long - term, the port may start to gradually accumulate inventory, but the current inventory is still not high, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - based production [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the start - up rate is expected to remain high due to good spot benefits, but the inventory pressure is limited, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From September 9 to September 15, the PTA spot price decreased by 50, the processing fee was at a low level, and the basis was weak. The PTA balance load increased by 0.4, while other indicators such as PTA load remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term TA maintenance is over, the start - up rate has increased, polyester load has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable. With the restart of devices, the de - stocking of TA will slow down, and long - term inventory build - up is expected. But due to the extremely low and long - lasting processing fee and the return of PX supply, potential additional maintenance may provide opportunities to expand the processing fee [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, MEG, and related indicators remained unchanged. The MEG coal - based profit decreased, and the cash flow (ethylene) was negative and decreased [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term domestic oil - based production of EG remained stable, coal - based start - up slightly increased, and the overall load increased. With the restart of overseas maintenance and an increase in arrivals, port inventory slightly accumulated. New devices are put into operation earlier than expected, and with high supply expectations in the long - term, port inventory may gradually accumulate, but the current inventory is not high, and attention should be paid to the coal - based cost support [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of various types of polyester staple fiber remained stable. The short - fiber profit and pure - polyester yarn profit had some fluctuations, and the cotton - polyester staple fiber and viscose - polyester staple fiber spreads also changed slightly [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term start - up rates of some enterprises increased, the start - up rate reached 94.4%, sales improved, and inventory decreased slightly. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory decreased. In the future, the start - up rate of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory, while the start - up rate of short - fiber is expected to remain high due to good spot benefits, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of various types of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber had certain fluctuations. The weekly changes showed a general downward trend, while the daily changes on September 15 were mostly 0, except for some indicators such as RU and NR futures prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From September 9 to September 15, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene had some fluctuations, and the prices of styrene and related products also changed. The domestic profit of styrene remained at a loss, and the profits of EPS, PS, and ABS also had certain fluctuations [2][5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA start - up continues to rise, polyester start - up declines slightly, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains strong while spot processing fees weaken. Entering the inventory accumulation stage, pay attention to opportunities to short the processing fees [2]. - For MEG, the near - term maintenance returns, start - up rises significantly, port inventory accumulates slightly, and the basis weakens. It will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage, and is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to changes in Iranian imports [6]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term device runs stably, production and sales improve, and inventory decreases. However, downstream demand is not improved, and processing fees are expected to remain weak. Pay attention to further production cuts in the industry [6]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level but does not seasonally decline, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, crude oil rose by $4.8, PTA spot rose by $50, and spot processing fees weakened with a decrease of $49. The new Fengming 300 - million - ton device restarted [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term TA start - up continues to rise, polyester start - up declines slightly, inventory accumulates, and the basis remains strong. PX domestic start - up decreases, overseas rises, and PXN and its structure weaken. In the future, the bottle - chip contradiction may drag down polyester load, and TA will enter the inventory accumulation stage. Pay attention to opportunities to short the processing fees [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, Northeast Asian ethylene rose by $10, MEG domestic price rose by $50, and coal - based MEG profit increased by $57.04. The satellite 90 - million - ton device was under maintenance, the Yankuang 40 - million - ton device increased its load, and the Hengli 90 - million - ton device restarted [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Near - term maintenance returns, start - up rises significantly, port inventory accumulates slightly, downstream inventory levels decline, and the basis weakens. The stage of the fastest port inventory reduction is over, and it will transition to a balanced and slightly inventory - accumulating stage. It is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to changes in Iranian imports [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber rose by $95, and short - fiber profit decreased by $54. The near - term device runs stably with a start - up rate of 92.1%, production and sales improve, and inventory decreases [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - fiber supply decline is limited, and the polyester start - up decline due to bottle - chip production cuts may repair the profit. However, downstream demand is not improved, and processing fees are expected to remain weak. Pay attention to further production cuts in the industry [6]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From June 9 to 13, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber rose by $5, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber rose by $425. The national explicit inventory is stable, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds due to rainfall affecting tapping [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level but does not seasonally decline, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounds. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price and Margin Changes**: From June 9 to 13, the price of CFR China styrene rose by $35, and styrene domestic profit increased by $41 [10]. - **Market Outlook**: Not provided in the given content