芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | POY 1 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 2025/0 9/23 | 67.6 | 598 | 803 | 4470 | 6620 | 101.77 | 205.0 | 125 | 209 | 80.6 | 76.8 | 32714 | -80 | 0.30 | | 2025/0 9/24 | 69.3 | 606 | 812 | 4525 | 6600 | 97.96 | 206.0 | 120 | 140 | 80.6 | 76.8 | 32714 | -75 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/16 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 9/09 66.4 597 836 4605 6805 110.61 239.0 75 226 80.3 76.8 14651 -65 0.40 2025/0 9/10 67.5 603 838 4625 6725 108.55 235.0 86 134 80.3 76.8 11842 -65 0.90 2025/0 9/11 66.4 604 838 4620 6760 117.51 234.0 82 181 80.3 76.8 11434 -65 0.40 2025/0 9/12 67.0 599 832 4575 6760 107.46 233.0 66 229 80.3 76.8 9893 -75 0.35 2025/0 9/15 67.0 599 832 4575 6710 107.46 233.0 66 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: After the near - end TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load remained stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. With increasing unexpected TA maintenance, rising polyester start - up rate, and healthy inventory, the near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to opportunities of expanding processing fees at low prices and the restart progress of Hengli Huizhou [2]. - **MEG**: Near - end domestic oil - based production increased, coal - based start - up rate declined slightly, overall load rose, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, downstream stocking increased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, port inventory is expected to continue to decline, but in the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The valuation is greatly affected by the cost side, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Satellite and Xinrun [6]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The start - up rate increased slightly, sales decreased cyclically, and inventory remained stable. The start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished - product inventory increased. The short - term start - up rate is expected to remain high, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. - **Styrene**: The prices of related raw materials and products changed, and the domestic profit of styrene fluctuated [10]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: Crude oil price decreased by 1.5, naphtha increased by 4, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 3, PTA domestic spot decreased by 20, and PTA processing spread decreased by 7 [2]. - **Device Changes**: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device of Taihua restarted, and a 1.2 - million - ton device is planned for maintenance [2]. - **Weekly View**: After TA maintenance, the start - up rate decreased, polyester load was stable, inventory decreased, basis weakened, and spot processing fees declined. TA unexpected maintenance increased, polyester start - up continued to rise, and raw material PX supply gradually recovered. The near - end supply - demand pattern of TA is expected to improve [2]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, MEG outer - market price decreased by 2, MEG inner - market price decreased by 33, and MEG coal - based profit decreased by 33 [6]. - **Device Changes**: A 150,000 - ton MEG device of Xinjiang Tianying restarted, and a 300,000 - ton device of Shaanxi Weihua was under maintenance [6]. - **Weekly View**: Domestic oil - based production increased, coal - based start - up rate declined slightly, overall load rose, overseas unexpected maintenance increased, port inventory decreased, downstream stocking increased, and basis strengthened. In the short term, port inventory is expected to continue to decline, but in the long term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [6]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: The price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, short - fiber profit increased by 15, and pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 20 [6]. - **Device Changes**: None mentioned. - **Weekly View**: The start - up rate increased slightly, sales decreased cyclically, and inventory remained stable. The start - up of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material stocking decreased, and finished - product inventory increased. The short - term start - up rate is expected to remain high, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate [6]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of RU main contract increased by 125 [6]. - **Key Indicators Changes**: The spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 85, and the processing profit of Thai standard rubber remained unchanged [6]. - **Daily View**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup rubber remained stable with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene price remained unchanged, pure - benzene CFR China decreased by 14, and styrene CFR China decreased by 15 [10]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene decreased to - 431, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 110 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA is entering a inventory accumulation phase, with the spot processing fee significantly weakened. There may be opportunities to expand the processing fee [3]. - MEG is expected to be in a sideways trend. With the restart of domestic coal - based units and Saudi units, it is gradually entering an inventory accumulation phase. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [9]. - The processing fee of polyester staple fiber is expected to move sideways. The supply has not significantly decreased or increased, with weak domestic demand and high export growth [9]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the strategy is to wait and see due to stable national explicit inventory and a rebound in the price of Thai cup - lump rubber affected by rainfall [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of crude oil decreased by 6, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 1, PTA internal spot price increased by 10, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 51. The PTA processing fee increased by 13, and the PXN spread decreased slightly [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA start - up increased slightly, polyester load decreased further, inventory continued to accumulate, the basis declined, and the spot processing fee weakened significantly. The domestic PX start - up was stable, with some overseas maintenance, and the PXN spread weakened slightly [3]. MEG - **Price and Spread Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the MEG external price increased by 3, the internal price increased by 37, and the coal - based profit increased by 37. The internal cash flow (ethylene) increased by 41 [9]. - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic coal - based restart drove the start - up to increase month - on - month. Saudi units were restarting, and port inventory was expected to accumulate next week. The basis was stable, and the benefit ratio was maintained. With the increase in domestic start - up, it is gradually entering an inventory accumulation phase [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 45, and the short - fiber profit decreased by 66 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side saw a reduction in production by Ningbo Dafa, and the start - up decreased to 92.3%. The sales were stable month - on - month, and the inventory was basically maintained. The demand side's yarn start - up continued to decline, with raw material inventory decreasing and finished - product inventory increasing [9]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 20, and the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 170. The RU main contract price increased by 165, and the NR main contract price increased by 95 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory was stable, with an absolute level not high but no seasonal depletion. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [9]. Styrene - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 11 to July 17, the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 5, the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50, and the EPS domestic profit increased by 100 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The ethylene price remained stable, and the pure - benzene price changed slightly. The Asian spread of pure - benzene to naphtha was stable, and the styrene domestic profit was basically unchanged [12].

音紧像胶星报 價H 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/14 P 不 A 点 点 点 用 POY 1 仓单+有 PX CFR |PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 石脑油裂 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油 TA基差 50D/4 聚酯毛利 日期 原油 PX加工差 产销 效预报 工差 日本 台湾 得 解价差 负荷 荷 8F ଚ୍ଚିତ୍ର 2025/0 6770 0.40 69.6 577 842 4810 66.98 265.0 213 52 82.8 79.7 36428 85 7/07 2025/0 70.2 587 847 4800 6760 72.30 260.0 175 50 82.8 79.7 45812 90 0.35 7/08 (图)H 2025/0 70.2 6700 33 82.8 25 0.40 598 850 4750 83.76 252.0 107 79.7 46058 7/09 2025/0 68.6 852 4735 87.87 261.0 83 82.8 79.7 44036 5 201 6645 -19 0.55 7/10 2025/0 r (1) H 70.4 584 4710 68.51 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/26 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 6/19 78.9 643 904 5190 7120 64.66 261.0 247 -3 85.1 79.1 37684 270 0.30 2025/0 6/20 77.0 646 898 5275 7165 81.77 252.0 369 -34 86.1 79.1 37020 265 0.40 2025/0 6/23 71.5 642 899 5260 7225 117.80 257.0 350 38 86.1 79.1 36600 275 0.55 2025/0 6/24 67.1 586 859 5100 7225 94.11 273.0 414 214 86.1 79.1 36396 265 0.20 2025/0 6/25 67.7 579 849 5050 7170 83.16 270.0 417 2 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR | PTA内盘现 | POY 1 50D/4 | 石脑油裂 | PX加工差 | PTA加 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 | PTA负 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | | | | 台湾 | 货 | 8F | 解价差 | | 工差 | | 负荷 | 荷 | | | | | 2025/0 6/10 | 66.9 | 574 | 817 | 4855 | 6880 | 83.34 | 243.0 | 388 | 113 | 85.6 | 83.0 | 87345 | 215 | 0.55 | | 2025/0 6/11 | 69.8 | 572 | 812 | 4825 | 6880 | 60.09 | 240.0 | 383 | 138 | 85.6 | 83.0 | ...

音紧像胶呈报 图书 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/30 P 不 A = 点击 POY 1 PTA平衡 仓单+有 PX CFR PTA内盘现 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 TA基美 50D/4 日期 原油 PX加工美 产销 台湾 工差 效预报 日本 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F rest 2025/0 6990 64.8 560 826 4875 85.54 266.0 363 156 87.3 77.1 56566 150 0.35 5/23 2025/0 64.7 566 834 4910 6990 91.59 268.0 351 121 87.3 77.1 56308 165 0.30 5/26 l RiH 2025/0 6990 97.22 87.3 175 0.50 64.1 567 842 4880 275.0 271 156 77.1 56308 5/27 2025/0 837 4880 77.1 56248 0.65 64.9 563 6990 86.78 274.0 298 162 87.3 180 5/28 2025/0 图H 64.2 570 99.28 87.3 ...