Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Low inventory limits the downside, but the advanced commissioning plans of Yulong and Ningxia Changyi's new plants dampen market sentiment [3] - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in equilibrium, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4288 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton, +0.37% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4377 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton, -0.02% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 131 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 34 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load remains high and stable, and there are still many supply losses overseas [2] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - Current demand is recovering slowly with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later period [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 46.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 36.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.5 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 9.4 tons, with a neutral arrival volume [1] - In September, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Market analysis shows that due to the expected policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, leading to a rebound in EG prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure for inventory to rise with the return of imports [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good. However, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the available spot in the market will increase. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants are gradually restarting, with concentrated arrivals of foreign ships at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons [1]