化工日报 | 2025-12-30 EG延续累库，价格低位整理 风险 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3817元/吨（较前一交易日变动-29元/吨，幅度-0.75%），EG华东市场现货价 3683元/吨（较前一交易日变动+13元/吨，幅度+0.35%），EG华东现货基差-136元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+3美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-857 元/吨（环比+41元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副港到港量4.3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US tariff game continues, and EG remains weak. The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and there are still many overseas supply losses. In Saudi Arabia, more than two sets of plants are still shut down or operating at low loads. On the demand side, demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited. Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. An inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main EG contract closed at 4,061 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.22%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 4,150 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.67%). The spot basis in East China was 68 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$61/ton, down $1/ton from the previous day. The production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was -431 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton [1]. International Spread No specific data analysis provided, only mentions the chart of "ethylene glycol international spread: US FOB - China CFR" [20]. Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - Due to pre - holiday stocking, demand is slightly boosted, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the demand recovery [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 54.1 tons, up 3.4 tons. According to Longzhong data, it was 44.3 tons, up 4.3 tons. From October 9th to 12th, the actual arrival at the main ports was 8.7 tons, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 10.2 tons, and the planned arrival at the secondary ports is 2.5 tons, with a possibility of continued inventory accumulation [1]. - Under the commissioning of new plants, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in the EG balance sheet in the fourth quarter, and the ethylene glycol port inventory has increased significantly around the National Day [2].

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Low inventory limits the downside, but the advanced commissioning plans of Yulong and Ningxia Changyi's new plants dampen market sentiment [3] - In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in equilibrium, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4288 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton, +0.37% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4377 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton, -0.02% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 102 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 72 dollars/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 8 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based syngas - to - EG was - 131 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 34 yuan/ton) [1] - The domestic ethylene glycol load remains high and stable, and there are still many supply losses overseas [2] International Price Difference - Not mentioned in the text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - Current demand is recovering slowly with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. Pay attention to the time of concentrated order placement in the later period [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 46.5 tons (a month - on - month increase of 0.6 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 36.3 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 8.5 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 9.4 tons, with a neutral arrival volume [1] - In September, the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of new plants suppress the market [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Market analysis shows that due to the expected policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, leading to a rebound in EG prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure for inventory to rise with the return of imports [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good. However, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the available spot in the market will increase. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants are gradually restarting, with concentrated arrivals of foreign ships at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons [1]