贝森特承认经济中部分领域显现困境迹象，包括住房和对利率敏感的行业。他指出服务业经济助推了通 货膨胀，但声称较低的能源价格将很快有助于推动物价下降。 美国财政部长斯科特.贝森特上周日表示，美国在2026年不存在陷入衰退的风险，并声称美国人将很快 受益于特朗普政府在贸易和税收方面的经济政策。贝森特在接受采访时表示："我对2026年感到非常、 非常乐观。我们已经为强劲且非通胀性的经济增长奠定了基础。" 贝森特称，共和党大规模支出方案《大美丽法案》的部分条款仍在陆续生效，其经济效应尚未完全显 现。这项新法律将特朗普2017年的减税政策永久化，同时为老年人提供抵消社会保障税的"补贴"，并提 高州和地方税的抵扣额度。该计划还包括针对小费收入、加班费和汽车贷款的税收减免。 贝森特补充说，医疗保健成本也将变得更加可负担。这位财政部长表示，特朗普政府本周将就此议题发 布更多消息。目前，由于国会围绕《平价医疗法案》市场增强补贴延期的僵局，预计将推高数百万人的 医疗成本。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈西特上周日同样表示，由于政府停摆，第四季度的经济数据可能显现 疲软。这次在华盛顿持续43天的僵局是美国历史上最长的一次。 民调显示 ...

Core Insights - The outlook for Medicaid membership growth has been significantly reduced due to ongoing issues with medical costs [1] Group 1: Medicaid Membership Growth - The anticipated growth in Medicaid membership has been slashed, indicating a potential slowdown in enrollment [1] - Medical costs continue to pose challenges, impacting the overall financial health of the Medicaid program [1]

Core Insights - UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.92, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.75, but reflecting a 59.2% decline year over year [1][9] - Revenues increased by 12% year over year to $113.2 billion, although this figure missed the consensus mark by 0.2% [1][9] - The earnings were supported by growth in domestic commercial membership and strong performance in Optum Rx, but were partially offset by elevated medical costs [1] Business Performance - UNH's third-quarter premium reached $89 billion, up from $77.4 billion a year ago, but also missed the consensus estimate by 0.2% [2] - The medical care ratio (MCR) was reported at 89.9%, deteriorating by 470 basis points from the previous year and falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 90.9% [3] Operating Costs and Earnings - Total operating costs for the third quarter were $108.8 billion, an increase of 18.2% year over year, driven by higher medical costs and operating expenses [4] - Operating earnings declined by 50% year over year to $4.3 billion, with the net margin decreasing by 390 basis points to 2.1% [4] Performance of Business Platforms - Revenues from UnitedHealthcare, the health benefits segment, rose 16% year over year to $87.1 billion, driven by domestic commercial membership growth, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate [5] - Optum's revenues were $69.2 billion, an 8% increase year over year, attributed to strong contributions from Optum Rx, exceeding the consensus mark [6] Membership and Financial Position - UnitedHealthcare served 50.1 million people as of September 30, 2025, reflecting a 1.6% year-over-year growth, although it fell short of the consensus estimate [7] - As of September 30, 2025, UnitedHealth had cash and short-term investments of $30.6 billion, total assets of $315.3 billion, and total equity of $101.6 billion, all showing increases from the previous year [10] Outlook - Management projects adjusted net EPS for 2025 to be at least $16.25, up from a previous estimate of $16, with net earnings expected to be at least $14.9 billion [12]

Core Viewpoint - UnitedHealth's stock is expected to rise due to lower-than-expected medical costs and an improved profit outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Performance - Medical costs increased less than anticipated, contributing to a positive adjustment in profit forecasts [1] Market Reaction - The stock market is reacting favorably to the news, indicating investor confidence in UnitedHealth's financial health [1]

Core Points - The upcoming White House meeting between President Trump and congressional leaders is expected to exacerbate the political deadlock, potentially leading to the first government shutdown in nearly seven years due to strong political considerations [1] - Democrats are eager to frame the government shutdown debate around rising living costs, particularly healthcare, while Republicans aim to blame Democrats for mismanagement ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] - Progressive Democrats are pressuring party leaders to show resolve against the Trump administration, while Democratic leaders are confident in uniting their party around healthcare issues to prevent defections [1] Summary by Sections Political Dynamics - The meeting is characterized by a significant political standoff, with both parties leveraging the situation for electoral gain [1] - Trump has linked Democratic demands to immigration issues, claiming they aim to allocate $1 trillion of taxpayer money for illegal immigrants, although this claim is exaggerated [2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that current restrictions on illegal immigrants accessing Medicaid could save $28 billion over ten years [2] Democratic Proposals - Democrats have three main demands: 1. Invest $350 billion to permanently extend tax credits for middle-class families under the Affordable Care Act to prevent premium spikes [1] 2. Repeal cuts to Medicaid from Trump's tax reform, including new work requirements [1] 3. Restore funding cuts to medical research and prevent the White House from rescinding previously approved allocations [1] Republican Stance - Republican leaders suggest that negotiations can occur after passing a short-term funding bill, but Democrats express distrust in Trump's commitment to negotiations [1][2] - The Trump administration threatens large-scale layoffs of federal employees if a shutdown occurs, which could be part of a broader plan to blame Democrats for economic impacts [3] - There are internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding the Affordable Care Act, with some members supporting extensions of subsidies while others advocate for stricter limitations [4]