2026 年 2 月 PMI 数据点评 2 月 PMI："温差"信号 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 04 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：钟渝梅 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110008 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：zhongyumei@glms.com.cn 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 事件：3 月 4 日，国家统计局公布 2026 年 2 月中国采购经理指数运行情况。2 月 份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分点，制造业 景气水平有所回落。 2 月制造业 PMI 季节性回落并不意外——春节时点偏晚，2 月制造业所受扰动较 大，历史规律使然。然而，0.3 个百分点的环比降幅，明显小于"春节效应"下的 波动，若剔除春节扰动，制造业景气度实则呈改善态势。这一"降中有稳"的背 后，是"十五五"开局之年的一丝暖意。与此同时，价格指标分化、出口订单超 预期回落、服务业与建筑业此消彼长，也共同勾勒出开年经济的"温 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that after the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, global capital markets experienced a rebound, with A-shares showing strong performance and continuous increases over five trading days [1] - Investors are optimistic about the strategy to expand domestic demand and are looking forward to the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Despite the Hong Kong market being affected by the Christmas holiday and the suspension of northbound capital trading, A-share trading volume increased, indicating a rise in both volume and price [1] Group 2 - The market saw a continuous rebound last week, with increased trading volume; the Shanghai Composite Index maintained above the 60-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index approached its yearly high [1] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets exceeded 19 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous week [1] - Key market hotspots last week were concentrated in the military, new energy, and TMT sectors, with small-cap and technology stocks experiencing larger gains [1] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index completed a small double bottom pattern and is attempting to move above the neckline; it had similar stop-loss positions during adjustments in late November and mid-December [1] - The continuous rebound last week surpassed the neckline of the double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward momentum [1] - Future attention should be paid to the technical pressure at previous high points and the support strength of the five-day moving average [1]