[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) saw a 0.12% increase as of February 24, with an active trading volume of 10.29% and a transaction value of 2.399 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 8.191 billion yuan, with the latest fund size at 23.283 billion yuan [1] - The ETF experienced continuous net inflows over the past week, totaling 2.086 billion yuan, with a peak single-day net inflow of 658 million yuan [1] Group 2 - On February 24, the 30-year Treasury futures contract rose by 0.32%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts increased by 0.06%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [1] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 526 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 1.4524 trillion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The market sentiment is supported by increased institutional demand for bond holdings ahead of the Spring Festival, contributing to a stable and slightly bullish bond market [1] Group 3 - The Spring Festival saw a significant increase in travel and tourism, with traditional attractions and hotels experiencing price increases, indicating strong consumer demand [2] - The upcoming economic data and policy expectations are crucial for assessing the sustainability of the bond market's stability, as local governments have adjusted economic growth targets [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which includes publicly issued bonds with maturities of 25-30 years, serving as a benchmark for this type of investment [2]

（原标题：A股开盘速递 | 创业板指涨1.7% 人形机器人等板块涨幅居前） 东吴证券表示，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多 数上涨，全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美联储降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内 需方面，动能稳步修复。产业趋势层面，机器人、国产大模型在内的科技主线在假期期间持续发酵。后续来看，两会临近将进一步强化市场维稳 预期，白宫官员确认特朗普拟于3月底访华，有助于稳定市场对外部环境预期。 配置结构上，建议关注中期产业趋势确定性(错杀后弹性更大)和顺周期困境反转两条线索(传统经济全面复苏前缺乏赔率，但具备防御属性)。关 注：(1)AI与泛AI领域的云、国产芯片制造端(半导体设备、材料、封测等)、CPO相关环节、AI电力建设周边如燃气轮机、柴发液冷等，机器人产 业链；(2)"十五五"新兴产业品种如商业航天、量子、氢能、脑机接口等；(3)顺周期如化工、建材、消费龙头、工程机械等；(4)储能、战略资源品 (稀土等)。 东方证券：节后宏观和产业层面催化有望陆续出现，沪指有望继 ...

【机构看好A股马年开局行情】智通财经2月24日电，马年A股的第一个交易日即将到来。春节长假期 间，海外市场整体小幅反弹。美股止跌回升，大宗商品表现强势，原油、黄金和铜价显著上涨。中国资 产方面，富时中国A50指数期货上涨，港股主要指数震荡整理。机构策略报告分析认为，历史上A股"春 节效应"特征显著，节后资金流入带动市场量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。并且，2026年春节 长假期间全球股市多数上涨，海外资金风险偏好维持高位。产业趋势上，包括机器人、国产大模型在内 的科技主线假期持续发酵，因此机构对节后A股市场表现持乐观判断。（上证报） 转自：智通财经 ...

Core Insights - The market is poised for significant investment activity with over 90 billion yuan waiting to enter, driven by new ETF funds and active equity funds [1][3][4] - Two main investment themes for 2026 have been identified: technology growth, particularly in AI, and Chinese manufacturing [4][5][7] Group 1: Investment Funds - Over 90 billion yuan is ready to enter the market, primarily from newly listed stock ETFs and active equity funds that were raised before the Spring Festival [3][4] - Three new ETFs are set to launch post-holiday, expected to contribute over 1 billion yuan in direct buying power, with additional ETFs in the pipeline totaling around 3 billion yuan [3][4] - A total of 112 active equity funds are waiting to be established, collectively raising approximately 88.75 billion yuan, with 29 of these funds exceeding 1 billion yuan each [4] Group 2: Investment Themes - The first investment theme is technology growth, focusing on AI and related sectors such as robotics and smart driving, which are expected to see significant advancements [5][7] - The second theme is Chinese manufacturing, highlighting the country's strong position in sectors like new energy vehicles and electronics, which are anticipated to drive economic growth [5][7] Group 3: Market Conditions - The market has shown a relatively stable performance leading up to the Spring Festival, with the index fluctuating around 4100 points, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [8][9] - Historical data suggests a high probability of market gains in the days following the Spring Festival, with past trends showing an 70% to 80% chance of the Shanghai Composite Index rising [11] - The upcoming earnings reports from listed companies will be crucial in determining the sustainability of stock prices that have been driven up by recent fund inflows [11]

周恒 制图 □ 2012年至2025年，万得全A指数春节后20个交易日里上涨的概率达到75%。今年来看，A股在春节假 期后表现同样值得期待 □ 机构表示，央视2026年春晚科技感十足，人形机器人表现进步超预期，科技成为共识度较高的两大主 线之一，节后可关注机器人与AI技术应用板块 ◎记者 汪友若 马年A股的第一个交易日即将到来。春节长假期间，海外市场整体小幅反弹。美股止跌回升，大宗商品 表现强势，原油、黄金和铜价显著上涨。中国资产方面，富时中国A50指数期货上涨，港股主要指数震 荡整理。 光大证券则从日历效应角度分析，认为节后市场有望震荡上行。光大证券表示，从历史经验来看，受微 观流动性好转及投资者风险偏好抬升影响，A股市场在春节后的20个交易日里通常表现较好。2012年至 2025年，万得全A指数春节后20个交易日里上涨的概率达到75%。今年来看，A股在春节假期后表现同 样值得期待。除了日历效应之外，外围市场的上涨、国内产业端的催化等也将对行情产生积极影响。 "整体而言，资金流入和人心思涨的市场格局没有变化，节后春季行情有望延续。"中信证券在报告中提 示。该机构表示，配置型资金的流入趋势并未发生变化。中国人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas markets showed a slight rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, with U.S. stocks recovering and commodities performing strongly, driven by geopolitical disturbances that significantly increased the prices of oil, gold, and copper. The performance of Chinese assets, particularly the FTSE China A50 index futures, also indicated a positive trend, suggesting a potentially favorable start for the A-share market in the Year of the Horse [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The overseas non-U.S. assets maintained a strong performance during the holiday, indicating a high risk appetite among overseas investors, which is expected to benefit the A-share market post-holiday [5]. - The inflow of funds into the market remains unchanged, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits, suggesting a shift towards equity markets [6]. - Historical data shows that the A-share market typically performs well in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of the CSI All A Index rising during this period [9]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The focus for investment should be on sectors benefiting from AI and resource commodities, with a particular emphasis on the robotics and AI technology applications showcased during the Spring Festival [13][14]. - The traditional sectors such as real estate and liquor are expected to see a recovery as their valuations are at historical lows, supported by improving fundamentals and policy catalysts [11]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is anticipated to enhance the supply dynamics of resource commodities, making them attractive for investment [11]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the technology sector, particularly in robotics and AI applications, as well as cyclical sectors like chemicals, construction materials, and machinery, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and improved demand [15]. - The market is entering a configuration phase where "technology + cyclical" remains the main theme, with technology sectors likely to respond first to market catalysts [15].

开源证券复盘春节后市场规律发现，节后5个、10个、20个交易日内，市场上涨概率逐步提升，大盘日 渐回暖；风格上，呈现"中小盘优于大盘，成长占优"的特征，市场以追求超额为目的，中证2000涨幅和 上涨概率均相对较高；行业上，科技与周期板块相对占优。太平洋证券也分析，从春节前后各指数的累 积收益率均值变化来看，市场呈现出节前布局与节后强化特征。整体而言，春节效应在A股市场体现为 系统性上涨与结构性分化并存的格局。 湘财证券分析，四家人形机器人（核心股）企业在春晚中集体亮相，不仅有助于加快全社会对人形机器 人产品的认知度和接受度，而且各款人形机器人也通过在节目中展示各种高难度和精细化动作，表明其 已逐渐具备真实的使用场景，从而为未来大规模商业化奠定基础。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：安东 华金证券认为，节后春季行情可能延续，A股可能震荡偏强。主要有四点原因：一是节后积极的政策预 期可能上升，外部风险有限；二是节后短期流动性可能继续宽松；三是今年春节期间海外股市表现平 稳，对节后A股走势影响较小；四是节后经济和盈利可能延续弱修复趋势。 方正证券指出，2026年开年以来，A股市场表现总体强势 ...