话虽如此，特朗普政府这种不稳定的政策频繁变动，实际上加速了全球半导体产业链的重构。越来越多的跨国公司开始寻求风险规避的策略，比如通过转 口、转移产能等方式。尽管如此，iPhone在中国市场的销量依然占到了全球的35%，这说明，想要将供应链完全转移并不是一件轻松的事。 更有趣的是，这样的压力反而成为了中国半导体产业升级的"催化剂"。在成熟制程领域，中国的自给自足能力显著提升，中芯国际的28nm工艺良品率已达 95%。与此同时，英伟达虽然获得了向中国出口AI芯片的许可，但中国的替代方案已经在逐步崛起。华为的昇腾910B芯片在算力上已经接近英伟达的 A100，显示出中国在高端技术上的进步。 近日，路透社爆出一则引人注目的消息：特朗普政府竟然批准了三星电子和SK海力士向其在中国的工厂出口芯片制造设备的年度许可证。听起来仿佛是一 个大转弯，美国似乎在半导体的对华政策上松了一口气。然而，若你深入剖析这背后的真相，你会发现这不过是美国在变换策略，而非真正的"和平协议"。 这一波操作可以说是一种"精明"的调整。2015年，特朗普政府曾以"防止技术泄露"为由，取消了韩国半导体巨头们在拜登时期享有的"经验证最终用 户"（VEU） ...

2025年底，特朗普政府向三星电子和SK海力士发放了2026年度在中国工厂使用芯片制造设备的许可证，而对于台积电的情况却依然悬而未决。这一消息引 发了国际舆论的广泛关注，许多人开始猜测，美国是否在对华政策上有了转向。然而，深入分析后我们不难发现，这一战略调整并非简单的"转弯"，而是美 国对其出口管控策略进行了一种更为"精明"的操作。 在过去的几年里，伴随着地缘政治的变化，美方一直在完善其技术监管机制，以防止先进技术流入中国。2025年9月，美国取消了原本给予台积电、三星和 SK海力士等公司的"经验证最终用户"（VEU）豁免权，改为年度审批制度。特朗普政府解释称，原有的豁免机制存在"漏洞"，可能导致高端技术被不当转 移到中国。这一政策措施使得韩国企业面临前所未有的挑战。根据韩国半导体行业协会的数据，由于出口受限，三星在西安工厂的产能利用率下降了12%。 可以想象，面对日益严峻的形势，韩国企业无疑感受到了压力。虽然韩国政府努力与美国方面沟通，希望争取一些过渡期的缓冲，但实际上，这些努力却未 能根本改变管控的本质。反而，中方对此表达了坚定的立场，认为美国此举不仅是单方面打压别国，而且还严重危害了全球产业链的稳定。这 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the complex geopolitical landscape affecting major companies, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, as they navigate the challenges posed by international policies and market dynamics [1] - NVIDIA's CEO expressed deep regret over the company's exit from the Chinese market, noting a drastic decline in market share from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export restrictions [2][3] - NVIDIA's potential revenue from the Chinese market was estimated to be between $2 billion and $5 billion for the current quarter, with a projected value of $50 billion by 2025, which now seems unattainable [2][3] Group 2 - ASML reported a record 42% of its sales coming from the Chinese market, but the CEO anticipates a significant decline in this percentage in 2026, reflecting growing concerns about potential market loss [4] - ASML's reliance on DUV lithography machines for 70% of its revenue in China poses a risk, as U.S. restrictions prevent the sale of more advanced EUV equipment [4][5] - The Chinese semiconductor industry is rapidly advancing, with companies like SMIC achieving over 90% yield in 14nm production and Huawei's Ascend 910B chip competing with NVIDIA's H100 [5] Group 3 - AMS, a subsidiary of a Chinese company, faces severe repercussions from U.S. export controls, which have led to asset freezes and management changes imposed by the Dutch government [6][7] - AMS China has publicly condemned the Dutch government's actions, asserting its independence and compliance with Chinese laws, while also emphasizing its significant local production capabilities [7][8] - The situation with AMS highlights the broader implications for global supply chains, particularly in the automotive sector, where the company plays a crucial role [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in H1 2025, with revenue increasing by 67.86% year-on-year to 307 million yuan and net profit rising by 91.56% to 76 million yuan [1][2] - The semiconductor packaging and testing equipment sector is experiencing a recovery, leading to increased demand for high-end testing and sorting machines, which has positively impacted the company's sales [2][9] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing restructuring of the global semiconductor supply chain and the trend towards high-end testing equipment [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 347 million yuan, 2024A: 407 million yuan, 2025E: 682 million yuan, 2026E: 884 million yuan, 2027E: 1,108 million yuan, with a growth rate of 67.7% in 2025E [1][11] - Net profit projections are: 2023A: 85 million yuan, 2024A: 78 million yuan, 2025E: 188 million yuan, 2026E: 273 million yuan, 2027E: 372 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 139.6% in 2025E [1][11] - The company's overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 51.39%, an increase of 1.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 24.72%, up by 3.05 percentage points [2] Product and Market Development Summary - The company has seen a substantial increase in sales of its EXCEED-9000 series products, which accounted for 51.37% of total sales in H1 2025, up from 25.80% in 2024 [3] - The company is actively developing customized testing and sorting solutions for specific semiconductor applications, enhancing its technological capabilities and market position [3] - The company is also investing in projects to enhance its R&D and manufacturing capabilities, which will further strengthen its competitive edge in the semiconductor testing equipment market [3][9] Market Outlook - The global semiconductor testing machine market is projected to grow from 6,053.36 million USD in 2024 to 9,927.50 million USD by 2031, with a CAGR of 6.39%, indicating a favorable market environment for the company [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic substitution trends and the growing demand for high-reliability testing equipment driven by advancements in AI and automotive electronics [8][9]